Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 U.S. Open. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
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Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings - The U.S. Open
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows users to input data to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The U.S. Open
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
- Units: +340.903 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2025
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
- $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!
You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Oakmont | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 284 |
| Driving Accuracy | 54% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 55% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 40% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 1.21 | 0.54 |
Field
Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-60 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 20
Last Five Winners of The U.S. Open
| 2024 | Bryson DeChambeau | -6 |
| 2023 | Wyndham Clark | -10 |
| 2022 | Matthew Fitzpatrick | -6 |
| 2021 | Jon Rahm | -6 |
| 2020 | Bryson DeChambeau | -6 |
Expected Cut-Line at The U.S. Open
Oakmont
| 2016 | 7 |
| 2007 | 11 |
Oakmont
7,372 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa - Think east coast Poa over west coast
You can find my premium course breakdown in my Vegas Report this week.
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Price |
| Joaquin Niemann | 35 |
| Jon Rahm | 14 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 40 |
| Harris English | 100 |
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Favorite Plays
Jon Rahm ($10,200)
Jon Rahm has fallen into this territory over the last year of not being viewed in the same light as fellow LIV contemporary Bryson DeChambeau. That may be fair when you consider that Bryson has put himself into contention to win almost every major outside last year's Open Championship. Still, the world of past Rahm success and current form has started to mix again for a golfer who did land as the second-highest win equity choice I had on the board. A total that marginally squeaked past the aforementioned DeChambeau.
Rahm's success this week will stem from his ability to regain his high level of driving. We saw that metric rank him first in the 2021 U.S. Open when he took down the title at Torrey Pines.
We aren't going to quite get that when purely using major championship form over the last season or two, but that answer is why the markets may have been slow to move on him and made him the cheapest option in the $10,000+ section. I think his LIV production and domination at Quail Hollow for the PGA might indicate a driver who has finally regained form.
Joaquin Niemann ($8,600)
Joaquin Niemann's lack of major championship success is a lazy narrative for everyone who uses it. I will not pretend that his back-door top 10 at the PGA Championship was anything more than a run up the leaderboard after shooting himself out of the event on day one. However, it is worth noting that performances are meant to grow over time.
I am under the belief that we would view Niemann in the same light as Xander Schauffele (pre-major win) if he hadn't left for LIV. Instead, we only view him in a similar grey area of not winning when it matters most. It feels like we will slowly get out of that direction over time, and you could make a strong argument the Chilean is entering the week as one of the five best players in the world from what he has put on paper in 2025.
If you don't want to play him as an outright, that is fine. But this DFS price somehow got $700 and $1,000 cheaper than his first two majors after producing his first top 10 during his last outing and winning the lead-in tournament on LIV to the U.S. Open. Something about that is massively wrong by any stretch of the imagination.
Harris English ($6,700)
A little under 50% of the last 16 U.S. Open winners made that victory their only major championship of their career, with an option like Webb Simpson (beautiful Webb) being the most similar example of finding someone who has a top-25 ranking but no expectation to actually win the title get across the finish line.
English has very quietly played these U.S. Open tests well in the past, landing inside the top eight in three of his last five attempts, and the statistical profile tells a similar story.
English graded top-15 for Expected Strokes Gained Total, Weighted Scrambling and Projected Driving + Putting. That is a combination that can sometimes yield victory out of nowhere at these U.S. Open tests because of the volatile nature of the venues.
That out of the blue narrative of winning this tournament lands perfectly for English, although you could argue it fits equally as well for names like Daniel Berger, Robert MacIntyre, Taylor Pendrith or Maverick McNealy.
All of those options will be players I back in DFS this week.
Win More With RotoBaller
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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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