Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Farmers Insurance Open
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSPGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Farmers Insurance
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
- Units: +340.903 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2025
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
- $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!
You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Field
Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 5
Last Five Winners of the Farmers
| 2024 | Matthieu Pavon | -13 |
| 2023 | Max Homa | -13 |
| 2022 | Luke List | -15 |
| 2021 | Patrick Reed | -14 |
| 2020 | Marc Leishman | -15 |
Expected Cut-Line at the AMEX
| 2024 | -2 |
| 2023 | -2 |
| 2022 | -2 |
| 2021 | -1 |
| 2020 | -1 |
Torrey Pines South + Torrey Pines North
We will dive deeper into the course inside of Discord this week!
Strokes Gained Dispersion Importance
***These are the expected production rates for players that landed under each threshold.
Winners
OTT - 15.5%
APP - 40.5%
ATG -11.5%
Putt - 32.5%
Top Five Performers
OTT - 14.2%
APP - 38.7%
ATG - 15.1%
Putt - 32.5%
Top 10 Performers
OTT - 14.8%
APP - 38.9%
ATG - 15.6%
Putt - 30.5%
Top 20 Performers
OTT - 13.8%
APP - 36.1%
ATG - 16.6%
Putt - 33.5%
Cut Makers
OTT - 12.7%
APP - 35.2%
ATG - 16.1%
Putt - 36%
Miss Cut
OTT - 12.7%
APP - 35.2%
ATG - 16.1%
Putt - 36%
If you want to make the cut, you increase your ATG + putting.
If you want to win this event, you ball-strike and stay somewhat okay with your short-game
Profiles That Most Closely Resemble That Of Past Winners
This doesn't mean these are the most likely players to win the title, but what it does suggest is that these players are most similar statistically to those who have won here in the past:
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Farmers (South) | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 286 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 52% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 62% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 52% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.73 | 0.54 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)
Strokes Gained Total: Weighted T2G (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Hard Scoring + Long Course (10%)
Distance + Long Iron Prox (10%)
North Scoring (20%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Outrights | |||
| Player | Price | Risk | Win |
| Sungjae Im | 22 | 0.32 | 7.04 |
Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at the top 50 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'
A handful of outright bets for me have made this list.
Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
Golfers to Land in the Top 6 of the Field for All Categories
Golfers to Land in the Top 35 of the Field for All Categories
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.
I didn't get all the pieces correct last week up top since I played too much Tony Finau and faded Max Greyserman, but one area where I was correct was my overexposure to Justin Thomas and the general fade of Sungjae Im in the $10,000+ range.
That answer isn't going to come to fruition this week since my model found playability for all four names in this section, with all golfers grading inside the top four of my model for upside.
I have no reason to initially cut any of these four names. Aberg + Im will be where my early lean goes, but this strength will be one of the reasons I am not looking to throw a ton of darts in the outright market.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
This is another very strong range.
I am done with these strong stances against Max Greyserman when the putting continues to be world-class, but I wonder what my model would have thought if he didn't get a real boost of upside in his profile when faced with the North Course. That can quickly start to help anything that is more marginal elsewhere.
My initial thought is that I am lower on Sahith Theegala than the market, and a little higher when it comes to Shane Lowry's upside than the space. However, let's see where ownership lands. I don't have a massive take when all players outside of Theegala rank in the top-15 for safety.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
There isn't a more glaring disparity in my model for "Expected Form" versus "Current Form" than Max Homa.
We see that with Homa ranking 126th in this field over his past 24 rounds in Strokes Gained Total against the second-place total that my model found for him when grading his outlook at Torrey Pines.
Homa looked impressive again at the Sentry from a ball-striking perspective, ranking first in this field when putting on Poa greens and third historically at similar courses.
I am still waiting to see how I want to round out my card between Homa, Rai, Aberg, Berger and Lowry, but fingers crossed that we get some weak matchups in the space to attack some of these edges with Homa, Rai and others.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
$6,000 Options to Consider
I noted this during the offseason, but no golfer saw a bigger increase in value from 2023 to 2024 than Erik Van Rooyen.
It doesn't mean we have an elite golfer on our hands, but what it does suggest is that the market may still be too low on him.
Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - Ludvig Aberg/ Sungjae Im
$9,000+ - Neutral to most
$8,000+ - Max Homa/Aaron Rai
$7,000+ - Daniel Berger
$6,000+ - Erik Van Rooyen
Least Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
***This still has time to change
$10,000+ - None - Tons of playability with all these names
$9,000+ - Sahith Theegala
$8,000+ - Ben Griffin/Luke Clanton
$7,000+ - Henrik Norlander/Max McGreevy
$6,000+ - See Model
Win More With RotoBaller
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
