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Fantasy points per target (FPPT) is a great indicator of a player’s efficiency in a particular season. If a receiver maintains a high average in this area, it leaves fantasy managers wondering how much more productive the pass catcher's numbers would have been if they got more looks. However, FPPT doesn't always carry over from year to year, as the league’s top receivers typically vacuum up a ton of target volume, which could lower this average.
Oftentimes, FPPT also serves as a red flag for potential candidates who may experience negative regression. This is because the statistic tends to highlight players who rely on big plays, such as deep catches and touchdowns, which aren’t easily predictable on a weekly basis. Replicating a strong FPPT average can be challenging since it depends heavily on situational factors.
On the other hand, those with a low FPPT average often indicate positive regression candidates. These receivers likely had ample opportunities for targets, suggesting they may achieve more favorable results if the targets carry over to the following year. Let's now analyze some of fantasy's most efficient wide receivers in 2022 and explore why they might be considered draft fades in 2023.
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Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
FFPC ADP: 23
Playing alongside Tyreek Hill, Pro Football Focus's (PFF) highest-graded receiver in 2022, allowed Jaylen Waddle to undergo a fantasy transformation. In his 2021 rookie season, the former No. 6 overall pick logged a modest 9.8 yards per reception (YPR) while primarily operating out of the slot (60% slot snap rate). In his sophomore year, however, the Alabama product nearly doubled his YPR, leading the NFL with an impressive 18.1 yards per catch (YPC) and 11.7 yards per target (YPT).
In '22, Waddle spent the majority of his time on the perimeter (74% wide snap rate), which significantly increased his spiked week potential. The 24-year-old excelled as a deep threat, catching 10 passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns on 16 targets that were 20 yards or greater down the field last season.
Additionally, Waddle saw notable improvements in his average depth of target (12.2 aDOT), yards per route run (2.59 YPRR), and yards after catch per reception (6.9 YAC/REC). These factors contributed to an exceptional 2.23 FPPT, ranking third in the league in full-PPR formats.
Hill's league-leading 38 deep targets opened up opportunities for Waddle in the short and intermediate levels of the field, where he thrived as a catch-and-run weapon. The playmaking Waddle dominated against zone coverage, averaging a remarkable 19.8 YPR on 44 catches against this defensive scheme. Despite evolving into more of a vertical threat, Waddle didn't compromise his slot skills, as he scored four of his eight touchdowns from that position.
There wasn't a noticeable area of play where the speedy receiver struggled in terms of efficiency last season. However, a potential concern for Waddle paying off his second- or third-round average draft position (ADP) in '23 is the significant three-point difference between his actual (15.2) and expected (12.3) fantasy points per game (FPPG). Additionally, only 50 of Waddle's 116 targets were deemed catchable by PlayerProfiler despite a relatively ordinary 12.1 average target distance.
Waddle had an equal number of red zone targets (eight) and touchdowns scored, making it highly unlikely for him to replicate that level of scoring prowess if his role inside the 20-yard line doesn't become more prominent. While the upcoming third-year wideout possesses explosiveness and operates within a well-schemed offensive attack, his failure to exceed the five-catch threshold in 14-of-17 games in '22 raises concerns.
Waddle could be the '23 equivalent of Deebo Samuel from last year's drafts. Samuel's ADP in '22 was driven up to the third round due to his unsustainable '21 campaign, where he led the league with a 2.82 FPPT and 18.2 YPR despite an 8.1 aDOT. There appears to be a common denominator here. Samuel experienced a significant drop in FPPG from one season (WR3) to the next (WR28). I'm skeptical about Waddle's prospects in season-long PPR leagues, but more optimistic his playstyle is conducive to standard and best ball formats.
Waddle suffered an abdomen injury at training camp on Aug. 9, but his Week 1 status would perhaps only enter uncertainty if he can't return to the field by the end of the month. Even if the star wideout misses the entire preseason, Waddle's ADP should remain unaffected by his current setback, which is being mostly downplayed as a minor concern at this point.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
FFPC ADP: 51
Christian Watson may be one of the easiest mid-round fades in fantasy for '23. The '22 second-round pick had a tumultuous season, starting with a dropped touchdown on the first play of the Green Bay Packers' '22 season. This resulted in him losing the trust of quarterback Aaron Rodgers and being relegated to the doghouse. Watson only logged a 31% snap rate from Weeks 1 to 9, missing three games due to a hamstring strain.
However, Watson made a remarkable comeback in the second half of the season. In Week 10, he put forth a breakout performance with three touchdowns against the Cowboys, swiftly becoming a league-winning fantasy pickup. Over a four-week stretch from Weeks 10 to 13, Watson scored an incredible seven touchdowns, leading all WRs in standard-league scoring with an average of 21.1 FPPG.
Despite his impressive 2.52 FPPT, Watson's 11.7 FPPG barely placed him in the top 32 among WRs in full-PPR formats. While he ended the season as the focal point of the Packers' young receiving corps, it is clear that his unsustainable touchdown rate of 18.8% cannot be maintained. Although Watson's PPR upside could potentially increase with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb no longer in the mix, the transition to quarterback Jordan Love may introduce significant overall volatility to the offense.
Furthermore, Watson received a poor drop grade from PFF, ranking as the seventh worst among qualifying WRs with a minimum of 35 targets. Additional evidence against Watson's '23 fantasy expectations includes his season highs of eight targets and six receptions. In full PPR, his expected 9.8 FPPG average was nearly two points lower than his actual average. To compensate for the loss of high-value targets with Rodgers' departure, Watson will require a substantial increase in the target volume.
Although Watson is an exceptional athlete, ranking second in athleticism score among WRs in the entire '22 draft class according to PlayerProfiler, the uncertainty of a rebuilding offense makes it unwise to invest in him at his current ADP outside of best ball formats. Selecting him in the sixth round of 10-team drafts may prove to be a risky move, as most of his production came with the support of a Hall-of-Fame quarterback who has since left the team.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
FFPC ADP: 94
Jahan Dotson, another rookie receiver, achieved an impressive 2.14 FPPT average in '22, largely due to his stratospheric touchdown rate of 18.9%. While his 10th-round cost in 10-team leagues is more affordable than Watson's, it's difficult to get overly excited about Dotson despite his promising rookie campaign.
Upon reviewing the tape, there are many encouraging aspects to Dotson's game. However, he is part of an offense that may experience a QB carousel between perennial backup Jacoby Brissett and the unproven '22 fifth-rounder Sam Howell. Dotson's efficient scoring last season was supported by Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz, neither of whom are on the current roster. There's arguably been a downgrade at their QB position, too. Additionally, when we consider high-value targets, Dotson received the third-most (42.1%) in this category.
Similar to Watson, Dotson had low season-best numbers in targets (nine) and receptions (six) during Year 1. A common theme among the three players highlighted in this article is the discrepancy between their actual (10.9) and expected FPPG (8.4), and Dotson is no exception.
New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy achieved success with the Kansas City Chiefs and their top-five passing offense in each of his five seasons there. Nevertheless, it's important to note most of that prosperity was due to the presence of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. Dotson's target rate of 17.5% may not see a significant increase considering the potentially run-first nature of the offense and the presence of Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, who will also command targets.
Regardless of fantasy managers' optimism regarding the influence of Bieniemy, it is unlikely that more than two pass catchers from this offense will become reliable weekly starters without stability under center. Dotson logged 1.39 YPRR, the lowest amongst the 12 WRs who recorded at least seven touchdowns last year, further raising concerns about his fantasy floor. While he has the potential to be an explosive deep threat with a high ceiling, Dotson's inflated production in '22 makes him a fade at his current ADP.
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