X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Why Zero RB Will Work in 2017

When Shawn Siegele published "Zero RB, Antifragility, and the Myth of Value-Based Drafting" in 2013, he brought Zero RB to the mainstream. It took a few years to really catch on, but entering 2016 fantasy football drafts Zero RB was all the rage. Many players ignored running backs in the early rounds and stock-piled wide receivers. For the first time ever three wide receivers were selected with the top three picks in almost every draft. Unfortunately for drafters who used this strategy, 2016 saw a resurgence at the running back position. Players like David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Ezekiell Elliott and others dominated the fantasy landscape in a way running backs haven’t since the days of LaDanian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson.

As we enter the 2017 draft season, running backs once again are at a premium. At the time of this writing, the top three PPR choices according to FantasyFootballCalculator are running backs. Running backs also occupy five of the top nine picks. Compare that to 2016 when the first running back off the board was David Johnson at pick four and only three running backs went in the first nine picks. The fantasy community is a fickle bunch indeed.

The question then is this: are running backs really back or can a Zero RB draft strategy still work? I think it can and will. In this article, I will discuss why I feel the running back position is headed for regression in 2017. I will also discuss how wide receivers are safer choices and how and why a Zero RB strategy can give you a huge advantage over the rest of your league.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Running Backs Are Due For Regression

Running backs scored touchdowns at an unsustainable rate in 2016. I looked at all NFL rushing data from 2010-2016 courtesy of Pro Football Reference and here is what I found: teams in 2017 attempted the fewest number of runs, combined for the second fewest rushing yards and called the lowest percentage of running plays during that stretch. Yet despite the league running the ball less than ever, running backs combined for the most touchdowns over that stretch by 33. That is two extra rushing touchdowns per week. In fact, you have to go back to 2008 to find a season that had more rushing touchdowns than 2017. The difference is teams ran the ball 800 more times that year.

Teams weren't running more in the red zone either. 2016 ranked second-fewest in total red zone carries, yet featured 44 more touchdowns than any other year tracked. Teams were, however, incredibly successful at running the ball in the red zone, specifically inside the five. In 2016, teams scored on 46.9% of their carries inside the five yard line. The average over the previous six years was 42.3% with a high of 43.7% in 2012. So either teams suddenly got really good at running the ball inside the five or 2016 was an outlier year for running back scoring. I'm going with the latter.

Take away the touchdowns and 2016 looks eerily similar to 2015. Here's a table to illustrate just how close they were:

Attempts Yards YPA TDs Rush%
2016 13,321 55,763 4.2 443 40.7
2015 13,488 55,724 4.1 365 40.9

 
Pretty easy to see what stands out.

Running backs weren't being used in the passing game more either. In 2016, the top 36 PPR scoring running backs combined for 1,420 receptions and 11,620 yards. In 2015, the worst fantasy year for running backs ever, they combined for 1,391 receptions and 11,876 yards. That's virtually the same number of PPR points (2,582 vs 2578.6). Even receiving touchdowns were virtually identical (58 to 54).

If running back scoring regresses closer to what happened in 2015, which the numbers support happening, players who draft running back heavy are going to be very disappointed.

 

Drafting WR Will Differentiate You From League-Mates

Let's face it, the goal of most fantasy leagues is to win. Winners get all the glory and most (if not all) of the money. Sure, some leagues pay small amounts to other positions but the real glory and the real money is in winning. Winning a fantasy football league is not easy. It takes preparation, tireless work during the season, and lots of luck! An easy way to give your team an advantage over your league-mates is to do what they aren't doing. Basically zig while everyone else is zagging.

Much like a large GPP tournament in daily sports, if your lineup is the same as everyone else's you can't win. Good GPP players will try to predict player ownership in an attempt to target high upside players who they believe will be low owned. You can use a similar tactic in your fantasy football drafts. If you suspect most of your league-mates are high on running backs it would be in your best interest to ignore the running back position and draft wide receivers instead. This may seem counter-intutive but let me explain.

Any advantage you have over every other team in your league increases your chances of winning. If your entire league is strong at running back and weak at wide receiver no one has an advantage. It comes down to sheer luck. In the same scenario if you are weak at running back but strong at wide receiver you have an advantage no team can match. You have separated yourself from the pack and increased your chances of winning. Similar to what the pros are able to do in GPP tournaments. If at some point during the course of the season you can improve your running backs either through trades or waiver pickups you will have an insurmountable advantage.

I predict that in most casual leagues running backs will be going early and often. Even in "expert" drafts that I have seen running backs are dominating draft boards. In early ADP data from Fantasy Calculator twelve running backs are being selected in the first twenty-four picks of PPR drafts. As we get closer to the season I would expect that number to rise even more as casual players begin drafting.

 

Wide Receivers Are Safer Than Running Backs

In a 2016 study done by Air Yards guru Josh Hermsmeyer titled "Why Zero RB Works: Quantifying Positional Injury Rates" he proved that wide receivers are safer when it comes to injuries. While his study showed very little difference in injury rates between the positions, it showed a massive difference in the severity of the injuries. He states:

Running backs are anywhere from 24 to 31 percent more likely to come up lame from a serious injury than a wide receiver.

Having your stud receiver miss a game or two will not end your championship hopes. But having your stud running back suffer a serious injury (in this case defined as four or more weeks) could absolutely keep you from a spot in your leagues playoffs.

Here's the most alarming part of his study if you are drafting running backs early. Backs taken in the first five rounds of drafts tend to get injured at a much higher rate than wide receivers and suffer much more serious injuries. Hersmeyer speaking on backs and receivers taken in the first five rounds:

While the non-serious injury rate for WR stays relatively constant, the non-serious injury rate for RBs skyrockets. The relative risk for RBs in the first five rounds is 31-45 percent higher than that for WRs.

He goes on to say:

WRs drafted in the first five rounds are actually less likely than the rest of the WR population to suffer a serious injury. Meanwhile RBs drafted in the first five rounds continue their upward trend, and are far more likely than the RB population to suffer a serious injury. When combined, these two results cause the relative risk of choosing a RB in high leverage rounds to balloon to a ludicrous 200-360 percent more than choosing a WR.

So by foregoing running backs early in favor of wide receivers you are accomplishing some good things. First, you are giving your team an advantage other teams will not have. Second, you are choosing players who are much more likely to still be healthy come fantasy playoff time. Third, when other teams invariably suffer injuries to their high drafted running backs they are unable to recover because of their relative weakness at the other positions.

I think one of the major points that got lost on people who choose to go Zero RB was how it benefits from chaos. In that original article Siegel talks about how Zero RB benefits from this chaos:

You can see fairly easily how Zero RB benefits from randomness. Whenever a starting RB gets hurt, my lineup gets better. It gets better in relation to my opponents because I didn’t have the player in question, and it gets better in the sense that I either own the backup or I have a shot to acquire the backup in free agency.

In 2015, Tim Hightower won many players a fantasy football championship. In 2016, running backs like Bilal Powell, Zach Zenner and DeAndre Washington came through late in the season (playoff time) for fantasy owners. When a stud running back goes down it is much easier to predict who will see the bulk of the carries versus when a stud wide receiver goes down. Teams that were already strong at receiver and grabbed Powell, Zenner or Washington off waivers likely crushed the rest of their league.

In Part Two of my Zero-RB study, I will look at some of my favorite late-round running backs who can help the Zero-RB drafter dominate in the face of chaos.

 

More Zero RB Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Rhys McKee4 mins ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards5 mins ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani10 mins ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson11 mins ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander14 mins ago

Doubtful For Friday Night
Bill Algeo15 mins ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley18 mins ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Quentin Grimes19 mins ago

Ruled Out Friday
Vicente Luque21 mins ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
LeBron James28 mins ago

Questionable Against Indiana
Taj Gibson35 mins ago

Out Friday Against Wizards
Anthony Davis44 mins ago

Questionable Versus Indiana
Eduardo Rodriguez1 hour ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler1 hour ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel1 hour ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley2 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Dejounte Murray2 hours ago

Available Versus Boston
Xavier Tillman2 hours ago

Sr. Cleared For Thursday Night
Al Horford2 hours ago

Won't Face The Hawks
Jrue Holiday2 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Tarik Skubal2 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes3 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis3 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer4 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw4 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler5 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager5 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz5 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Alex Caruso5 hours ago

Ayo Dosunmu Probable Friday
Darius Garland5 hours ago

Probable Against 76ers
Donovan Mitchell5 hours ago

Upgraded To Questionable
Duncan Robinson7 hours ago

Heat Rule Out Duncan Robinson Friday
Bryan Reynolds7 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jimmy Butler7 hours ago

Probable Against Portland
Onyeka Okongwu7 hours ago

Remains Out Thursday
Dejounte Murray8 hours ago

Questionable With Back Soreness
Jordan Romano8 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Gerrit Cole8 hours ago

Yankees Put Gerrit Cole On 60-Day Injured List
Elly De La Cruz8 hours ago

Batting In Six-Hole On Opening Day
Anthony Rendon9 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff On Opening Day
Wander Franco9 hours ago

Placed On Administrative Leave
Aaron Ekblad9 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov9 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto10 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin10 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard10 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins10 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist10 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear10 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Keita Bates-Diop10 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season
Dyson Daniels10 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday But Nearing Return
LaMelo Ball11 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of 2023-24
Jose Alvarado11 hours ago

Questionable To Face Milwaukee
TJ Friedl23 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jackson Chourio24 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Eduardo Rodriguez1 day ago

Starts Throwing Program
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen1 day ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers1 day ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers1 day ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels1 day ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby1 day ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA1 day ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry1 day ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan1 day ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg1 day ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn1 day ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby1 day ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord1 day ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala1 day ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler1 day ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder1 day ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More