Week 9 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Greetings, and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings on the projector and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). My hope is to help you understand why I’m significantly higher or lower on players than the expert crowd. Do note that the ECR will shift!

Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros (out of 125) last season and sit at 35th (out of 130) so far in ‘18. You deserve the best and I want to be among the sharpest out there -- anyone can have a good week, but I'm going on two strong seasons now. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, as the overall and flex tabs can simply get insane. I focus on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough chit-chat, let’s get to it.

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Week 9 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Up top, I have Drew Brees at No. 5 against a No. 7 ECR grade, while Matt Ryan (8 vs. 10) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (9 vs. 11) also sneak inside my top-10. To make things simple, Ryan and Fitzpatrick QB offenses that throw the ball nearly 65% of the time, making them top-eight passing teams capable of putting up QB1 numbers. I have to respect the ceilings.

It’s also worth mentioning that I have Dak Prescott, now with a legitimate No. 1 WR (sorry, Allen Hurns truthers), at No. 16 against a 20 ECR. I know the offense will still go through Ezekiel Elliott and Tennessee’s defense is strong, but Prescott appears to have remembered he can run and the mere presence of Cooper on the field could open the middle up for Cole Beasley and Geoff Swaim. He’s yet to throw for more than two passing TDs in a game, but 149 rushing yards and two ground TDs in his last three contests gives him a healthier floor.

I have Russell Wilson at 11 (ECR: 8) because he’s got a 2017 Deshaun Watson-esque TD rate buoying his stats. The man is barely having to throw anymore, and it’s not because he’s tucking it to run. Seattle is the only team in the NFL that’s throwing the ball less than 50% of the time in 2018 (47.76%), which gets more dramatic if you hone in on recent games. Their last three games have seen a 37.29% passing rate, which dropped to 31.15% against Detroit in Week 8. It’s hard to argue with their RB stable and defense combination, but I’m wary of relying on long TDs here -- especially with Doug Baldwin down a step.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Cam Newton	CAR	QB	2	1
2	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	3	1
3	Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB	1	-2
4	Tom Brady	NE	QB	4	0
5	Drew Brees	NO	QB	7	2
6	Kirk Cousins	MIN	QB	6	0
7	Jared Goff	LAR	QB	5	-2
8	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	10	2
9	Ryan Fitzpatrick	TB	QB	11	2
10	Deshaun Watson	HOU	QB	9	-1
11	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB	8	-3
12	Mitch Trubisky	CHI	QB	12	0
13	Philip Rivers	LAC	QB	13	0
14	Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	14	0
15	Alex Smith	WAS	QB	17	2
16	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB	19	3
17	Baker Mayfield	CLE	QB	15	-2
18	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	16	-2
19	Derek Carr	OAK	QB	18	-1
20	Joe Flacco	BAL	QB	20	0
21	C.J. Beathard	SF	QB	22	1
22	Case Keenum	DEN	QB	21	-1
23	Brock Osweiler	MIA	QB	23	0
24	Sam Darnold	NYJ	QB	25	1
25	Marcus Mariota	TEN	QB	24	-1
26	Nathan Peterman	BUF	QB	26	0
27	Nick Mullens	SF	QB	31	4
28	Lamar Jackson	BAL	QB	27	-1
29	Taysom Hill	NO	QB	28	-1

 

Week 9 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Look for Kenyan Drake (16 vs. 19) to dominate the Jets in Week 9, as Miami’s offensive line has an adjusted line yard tally of 4.62 (10th-best in NFL). The biggest hindrance to Drake is lack of big volume, but the last three weeks have been an improvement with touches despite Miami’s sad 29.47 seconds per play (30th in the NFL), which does jump a bit to 28.79 seconds with a lead of seven points or more (14th). While the Dolphins are favored by just three with Brock Osweiler at the helm, I have the Jets and their terrible offensive line, hurt skill-player pool and rookie QB losing handily on the road.

I have both Falcons RBs above the ECR, as Tevin Coleman (17 vs. 20) and Ito Smith (28 vs. 33) are set to work against a Washington defense that ranks 22nd in rush DVOA per FootballOutsiders. I know Atlanta’s offensive line is nothing special either, but Washington’s run defense is far worse than their secondary and I find it probable that the Falcons use their RB duo to control the game.

Those on my bad side are the Bears RBs, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, who have to deal a Buffalo defense that held Tom Brady’s offense to one touchdown in Week 8. I do believe the Bears easily win, but I’m legitimately concerned that the defense swipes a TD or two (like NE’s did) and that Chicago won’t have to press things in an ugly game with a 37.5 projected total from Vegas.

On the other side of that game stands LeSean McCoy (33 vs. 29), who I simply don’t want to be attached to my team. Those in PPR formats can pray for enough screen passes from Nathan Peterman as Buffalo looks to get the ball out of his hands quickly, but standard-leaguers will be lucky to approach 100 total yards.

Another RB getting knocked down four spots is Peyton Barber (34 vs. 30), who has a tough date with Carolina’s seventh-ranked defensive line at 3.89 adjusted line yards that only gets tougher considering he runs behind a Tampa Bay O-line with the fourth-worst 3.55 ALY. The Bucs are underdogs by 6.5 points and their 64.8% passing-play rate is the eighth-highest in the league, meaning I’ll be fading this Barber.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Todd Gurley	LAR	RB	1	0
2	Kareem Hunt	KC	RB	2	0
3	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	RB	3	0
4	Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	4	0
5	Melvin Gordon	LAC	RB	5	0
6	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	RB	6	0
7	James Conner	PIT	RB	7	0
8	Adrian Peterson	WAS	RB	8	0
9	James White	NE	RB	9	0
10	Nick Chubb	CLE	RB	11	1
11	Latavius Murray	MIN	RB	10	-1
12	Phillip Lindsay	DEN	RB	12	0
13	Mark Ingram	NO	RB	13	0
14	Chris Carson	SEA	RB	14	0
15	Lamar Miller	HOU	RB	15	0
16	Kenyan Drake	MIA	RB	19	3
17	Tevin Coleman	ATL	RB	20	3
18	Matt Breida	SF	RB	26	8
19	Jordan Howard	CHI	RB	16	-3
20	Tarik Cohen	CHI	RB	18	-2
21	Kerryon Johnson	DET	RB	17	-4
22	Alex Collins	BAL	RB	21	-1
23	Isaiah Crowell	NYJ	RB	25	2
24	Doug Martin	OAK	RB	24	0
25	Sony Michel	NE	RB	23	-2
26	Aaron Jones	GB	RB	22	-4
27	Dion Lewis	TEN	RB	27	0
28	Ito Smith	ATL	RB	33	5
29	Jalen Richard	OAK	RB	31	2
30	Chris Thompson	WAS	RB	30	0
31	Duke Johnson	CLE	RB	36	5
32	LeSean McCoy	BUF	RB	28	-4
33	Peyton Barber	TB	RB	29	-4
34	Austin Ekeler	LAC	RB	32	-2
35	Derrick Henry	TEN	RB	35	0
36	Frank Gore	MIA	RB	34	-2
37	Javorius Allen	BAL	RB	44	7
38	Trenton Cannon	NYJ	RB	41	3
39	Jamaal Williams	GB	RB	42	3
40	Chris Ivory	BUF	RB	43	3
41	LeGarrette Blount	DET	RB	37	-4
42	Raheem Mostert	SF	RB	40	-2
43	Devontae Booker	DEN	RB	38	-5
44	Mike Davis	SEA	RB	39	-5
45	Alfred Morris	SF	RB	45	0
46	Alfred Blue	HOU	RB	47	1
47	Ty Montgomery	BAL	RB	50	3
48	Spencer Ware	KC	RB	46	-2
49	Theo Riddick	DET	RB	53	4
50	Royce Freeman	DEN	RB	54	4
51	Rashaad Penny	SEA	RB	51	0
52	Kyle Juszczyk	SF	RB	49	-3
53	C.J. Anderson	CAR	RB	48	-5
54	Deandre Washington	OAK	RB	58	4
55	Kapri Bibbs	WAS	RB	55	0
56	Marcus Murphy	BUF	RB	59	3
57	Malcolm Brown	LAR	RB	57	0
58	Mike Boone	MIN	RB	60	2
59	D'Onta Foreman	HOU	RB	73	14
60	Kenjon Barner	NE	RB	56	-4
61	Jacquizz Rodgers	TB	RB	52	-9
62	Elijah McGuire	NYJ	RB	62	0
63	Tyler Ervin	HOU	RB	61	-2
64	Roc Thomas	MIN	RB	63	-1
65	Rod Smith	DAL	RB	64	-1
66	Gus Edwards	BAL	RB	66	0
67	Stevan Ridley	PIT	RB	65	-2
68	CJ Ham	MIN	RB	67	-1
69	Dontrell Hilliard	CLE	RB	72	3
70	Anthony Sherman	KC	RB	70	0
71	Kalen Ballage	MIA	RB	69	-2
72	Keith Smith	OAK	RB	71	-1
73	De'Angelo Henderson	NYJ	RB	75	2
74	James Develin	NE	RB	76	2
75	Ameer Abdullah	DET	RB	68	-7
76	Andy Janovich	DEN	RB	77	1
77	Benny Cunningham	CHI	RB	79	2
78	Patrick DiMarco	BUF	RB	74	-4

 

Week 9 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I’m sure the +7 on Tyreek Hill is others baking in the potential injury who haven’t updated yet, right? We can’t be putting Hill outside of the top-10 just because the Chiefs are set to stomp on the Browns because they’re still good for 30+ points even if the opponent is out of it by the third quarter.

Anyway, others that sit higher are Calvin Ridley (28 vs. 33), Tre’Quan Smith (30 vs. 35) and I’m still in on Geronimo Allison (35 vs. 40). It’ll take more than one week for me to assume that Marquez Valdes-Scantling is Green Bay’s actual No. 2 WR.

Many will target Marquise Goodwin (41 vs. 30) against a reeling Raiders squad that has the perception of being “Cleveland lite”. The Raiders actually haven’t given up a 100-yard game to a receiver in 2018 and Goodwin is coming off of a one-catch game in Week 8. Admittedly, he took the one catch and stretched it into a 55-yard touchdown, but that’s not fun to lean on. At least C.J. Beathard is trending towards playing on TNF, but his range of outcomes

Someone I’m lower on that’s on the WR3/flex fringe is Tyrell Williams (43 vs. 38), as he’s riding a hyperefficient high on no more than five targets per game on a team whose pace of play is the slowest in the NFL (30.62 seconds per play, no other team is above 30 seconds). Same goes for Mike Williams (46 vs. 41). I’d reassess this if Melvin Gordon was confirmed out, but a limited practice on Wednesday for the star RB bodes well for his availability in Week 9.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Michael Thomas	NO	WR	2	1
2	Adam Thielen	MIN	WR	1	-1
3	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	WR	3	0
4	Tyreek Hill	KC	WR	7	3
5	Antonio Brown	PIT	WR	4	-1
6	Julio Jones	ATL	WR	6	0
7	Davante Adams	GB	WR	5	-2
8	Robert Woods	LAR	WR	9	1
9	Mike Evans	TB	WR	8	-1
10	Stefon Diggs	MIN	WR	10	0
11	Keenan Allen	LAC	WR	12	1
12	Brandin Cooks	LAR	WR	11	-1
13	Jarvis Landry	CLE	WR	15	2
14	JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	WR	14	0
15	Kenny Golladay	DET	WR	17	2
16	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	WR	13	-3
17	Julian Edelman	NE	WR	16	-1
18	Marvin Jones	DET	WR	18	0
19	Josh Gordon	NE	WR	21	2
20	Devin Funchess	CAR	WR	20	0
21	Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	24	3
22	John Brown	BAL	WR	19	-3
23	Doug Baldwin	SEA	WR	25	2
24	DeSean Jackson	TB	WR	22	-2
25	Sammy Watkins	KC	WR	23	-2
26	Michael Crabtree	BAL	WR	27	1
27	Cooper Kupp	LAR	WR	30	3
28	Calvin Ridley	ATL	WR	34	6
29	D.J. Moore	CAR	WR	26	-3
30	Tre'Quan Smith	NO	WR	35	5
31	Corey Davis	TEN	WR	31	0
32	Taylor Gabriel	CHI	WR	36	4
33	Devante Parker	MIA	WR	37	4
34	Allen Robinson	CHI	WR	51	17
35	Geronimo Allison	GB	WR	40	5
36	Randall Cobb	GB	WR	39	3
37	Jordy Nelson	OAK	WR	33	-4
38	Chris Godwin	TB	WR	32	-6
39	Keke Coutee	HOU	WR	42	3
40	Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	28	-12
41	Marquise Goodwin	SF	WR	29	-12
42	Demaryius Thomas	HOU	WR	44	2
43	Tyrell Williams	LAC	WR	38	-5
44	Kenny Stills	MIA	WR	66	22
45	Mike Williams	LAC	WR	41	-4
46	Mohamed Sanu	ATL	WR	43	-3
47	Willie Snead	BAL	WR	49	2
48	Anthony Miller	CHI	WR	50	2
49	Chris Hogan	NE	WR	47	-2
50	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	WR	46	-4
51	Jakeem Grant	MIA	WR	59	8
52	Robby Anderson	NYJ	WR	72	20
53	Antonio Callaway	CLE	WR	52	-1
54	Danny Amendola	MIA	WR	54	0
55	Amari Cooper	DAL	WR	45	-10
56	Kelvin Benjamin	BUF	WR	57	1
57	Jermaine Kearse	NYJ	WR	55	-2
58	David Moore	SEA	WR	48	-10
59	Tajae Sharpe	TEN	WR	65	6
60	Cole Beasley	DAL	WR	58	-2
61	Josh Doctson	WAS	WR	56	-5
62	Jamison Crowder	WAS	WR	76	14
63	Martavis Bryant	OAK	WR	64	1
64	Paul Richardson	WAS	WR	53	-11
65	Zay Jones	BUF	WR	62	-3
66	Cameron Meredith	NO	WR	67	1
67	Seth Roberts	OAK	WR	60	-7
68	Taywan Taylor	TEN	WR	63	-5
69	Adam Humphries	TB	WR	71	2
70	Michael Gallup	DAL	WR	61	-9
71	Curtis Samuel	CAR	WR	70	-1
72	Brandon LaFell	OAK	WR	75	3
73	Allen Hurns	DAL	WR	82	9
74	Pierre Garcon	SF	WR	81	7
75	Deontay Burnett	NYJ	WR	89	14
76	Chris Conley	KC	WR	69	-7
77	Laquon Treadwell	MIN	WR	77	0
78	Cordarrelle Patterson	NE	WR	74	-4
79	Damion Ratley	CLE	WR	73	-6
80	Torrey Smith	CAR	WR	93	13
81	Trent Taylor	SF	WR	87	6
82	Travis Benjamin	LAC	WR	92	10
83	Jarius Wright	CAR	WR	85	2
84	Andre Roberts	NYJ	WR	88	4
85	Aldrick Robinson	MIN	WR	83	-2
86	Maurice Harris	WAS	WR	86	0
87	Dante Pettis	SF	WR	90	3
88	James Washington	PIT	WR	94	6
89	Breshad Perriman	CLE	WR	104	15
90	Rishard Matthews	NYJ	WR	84	-6
91	Justin Hardy	ATL	WR	101	10
92	Jaron Brown	SEA	WR	97	5
93	Kendrick Bourne	SF	WR	78	-15
94	Josh Reynolds	LAR	WR	68	-26
95	Justin Hunter	PIT	WR	100	5
96	Andre Holmes	BUF	WR	91	-5
97	Chris Moore	BAL	WR	99	2
98	Josh Bellamy	CHI	WR	98	0
99	Sammie Coates	HOU	WR	111	12
100	Equanimeous St. Brown	GB	WR	109	9
101	Phillip Dorsett	NE	WR	80	-21
102	Austin Carr	NO	WR	103	1
103	Charone Peake	NYJ	WR	112	9
104	Brandon Marshall	FA	WR	114	10
105	Vyncint Smith	HOU	WR	107	2
106	Demarcus Robinson	KC	WR	95	-11
107	Kevin White	CHI	WR	105	-2
108	TJ Jones	DET	WR	79	-29
109	Tim Patrick	DEN	WR	96	-13
110	Ryan Switzer	PIT	WR	106	-4
111	Michael Floyd	WAS	WR	110	-1
112	Marvin Hall	ATL	WR	108	-4
113	Deonte Thompson	DAL	WR	116	3

 

Week 9 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

The most notable booster is Jordan Reed (8 vs. 10), who has become quite polarizing in 2018. He caught 7-of-12 targets for 38 yards and no touchdowns in an odd Week 8 line and now has a 29-306-1 line in ‘18. While Washington is getting healthier around him, Reed remains their best red zone option in the passing game and they’re going to need to keep up with a potent Atlanta offense. I don’t think Alex Smith will be able to manage his way to win in this one. Oh, and I’m all aboard the Ed Dickson train (15 vs. 21), as we’ve seen Nick Vannett already get outshined by Will Dissly and now Dickson. Just because I have Wilson lower doesn’t mean I think he stinks and won’t produce!

On the other side of things, I have Austin Hooper outside of my top-12 (14 vs. 12), Chris Herndon down to 20 (ECR: 15) and Charles Clay in unplayable territory (25 vs. 16). Clay hasn’t topped four receptions, 40 yards or found the endzone yet. And now you want me to suddenly think that’s changing with Nathan Peterman and/or Matt Barkley at the helm? Nah. Herndon falls into a similar vein with my fading the Jets offense, but he also combines the fear of leaning on low-target TD games from the WR section. Hooper probably isn’t getting benched by you, but Washington adds HaHa Clinton-Dix to go alongside the third-best coverage safety per PFF in D.J. Swearinger Sr.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Travis Kelce	KC	TE	1	0
2	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE	3	1
3	George Kittle	SF	TE	2	-1
4	Jared Cook	OAK	TE	4	0
5	David Njoku	CLE	TE	5	0
6	O.J. Howard	TB	TE	6	0
7	Trey Burton	CHI	TE	9	2
8	Jordan Reed	WAS	TE	10	2
9	Jimmy Graham	GB	TE	8	-1
10	Greg Olsen	CAR	TE	7	-3
11	Kyle Rudolph	MIN	TE	11	0
12	Vance McDonald	PIT	TE	13	1
13	Benjamin Watson	NO	TE	14	1
14	Austin Hooper	ATL	TE	12	-2
15	Ed Dickson	SEA	TE	20	5
16	Geoff Swaim	DAL	TE	16	0
17	Jeff Heuerman	DEN	TE	21	4
18	Cameron Brate	TB	TE	18	0
19	Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	26	7
20	Chris Herndon IV	NYJ	TE	15	-5
21	Antonio Gates	LAC	TE	22	1
22	Mike Gesicki	MIA	TE	25	3
23	Vernon Davis	WAS	TE	27	4
24	Jordan Thomas	HOU	TE	30	6
25	Charles Clay	BUF	TE	17	-8
26	Hayden Hurst	BAL	TE	19	-7
27	Jesse James	PIT	TE	24	-3
28	Nick Vannett	SEA	TE	23	-5
29	Luke Willson	DET	TE	32	3
30	Michael Roberts	DET	TE	29	-1
31	Gerald Everett	LAR	TE	28	-3
32	Jonnu Smith	TEN	TE	31	-1
33	Ryan Griffin	HOU	TE	47	14
34	Ian Thomas	CAR	TE	36	2
35	Luke Stocker	TEN	TE	41	6
36	Demetrius Harris	KC	TE	33	-3
37	Matt LaCosse	DEN	TE	42	5
38	Nick Boyle	BAL	TE	39	1
39	Jason Croom	BUF	TE	37	-2
40	Tyler Higbee	LAR	TE	34	-6
41	Nick O'Leary	MIA	TE	38	-3
42	Virgil Green	LAC	TE	43	1
43	Josh Hill	NO	TE	40	-3
44	Blake Jarwin	DAL	TE	48	4
45	Jordan Akins	HOU	TE	35	-10
46	Lance Kendricks	GB	TE	46	0
47	Darren Fells	CLE	TE	44	-3
48	Neal Sterling	NYJ	TE	45	-3
49	Seth DeValve	CLE	TE	49	0
50	Jordan Leggett	NYJ	TE	51	1
51	Rico Gathers	DAL	TE	55	4
52	Garrett Celek	SF	TE	50	-2
53	Levine Toilolo	DET	TE	57	4
54	Eric Tomlinson	NYJ	TE	52	-2
55	David Morgan	MIN	TE	54	-1
56	Logan Thomas	BUF	TE	53	-3
57	Eric Saubert	ATL	TE	59	2

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