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Greetings, one and all, to the weekly column that puts my rankings under the microscope and gives me a chance to stand up for myself against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). My hope is to help you understand why I’m significantly higher or lower on players than the expert crowd. 

Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros out of ~125 last season and just scored seventh for Week 4 in 2018. I’m out to show that 2017 was no fluke and you’ve got a VIP pass. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, as the overall and flex tabs can simply get insane. I focus on QB, RB, WR, and TE -- feel free to holler if you really want K or DEF notes.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough chit-chat, let’s dance.

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Week 5 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

If Rob Gronkowski plays then I think I’m rolling with Tom Brady as my No. 1 QB this week, but I may cede a few spots if I get bad vibes from Gronk’s pregame workouts. Brady is the No. 5 QB per ECR, for what it’s worth. No one is benching him, but I figured I’d mark the difference anyhow.

Guys with more actionable gaps are Patrick Mahomes, who I have at No. 7 and the ECR slides to No. 10 with Jacksonville’s stout defense on deck. Some of you in 10-team leagues might be doubting your Mahomes play if someone like Jared Goff is available, but I’d stay the course. Alex Smith, who has sadly slid back into a game-manager role with Washington thus far, is my No. 12 QB against an ECR of 15. I think Washington is going to need him to do more than he’s been asked so far and his modest rushing abilities give him some sneaky value.

I’m not much lower on anyone, at least to the point where the gap is wider than four slots across the QB10-12 gulf. But I will point out that I’ve got Goff at No. 11 (ECR: 9), Blake Bortles at No. 14 (ECR: 12) and Kirk Cousins at No. 16 (ECR: 14).

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Tom Brady NE QB 4 3
2 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 1 -1
3 Cam Newton CAR QB 2 -1
4 Deshaun Watson HOU QB 7 3
5 Drew Brees NO QB 3 -2
6 Matt Ryan ATL QB 5 -1
7 Patrick Mahomes KC QB 10 3
8 Aaron Rodgers GB QB 6 -2
9 Philip Rivers LAC QB 8 -1
10 Matthew Stafford DET QB 11 1
11 Jared Goff LAR QB 9 -2
12 Alex Smith WAS QB 14 2
13 Andy Dalton CIN QB 13 0
14 Blake Bortles JAC QB 12 -2
15 Carson Wentz PHI QB 16 1
16 Kirk Cousins MIN QB 15 -1
17 Andrew Luck IND QB 17 0
18 Russell Wilson SEA QB 18 0
19 Joe Flacco BAL QB 19 0
20 C.J. Beathard SF QB 25 5
21 Ryan Tannehill MIA QB 22 1
22 Derek Carr OAK QB 20 -2
23 Baker Mayfield CLE QB 23 0
24 Marcus Mariota TEN QB 21 -3
25 Dak Prescott DAL QB 26 1
26 Case Keenum DEN QB 24 -2
27 Eli Manning NYG QB 27 0
28 Josh Allen BUF QB 29 1
29 Sam Darnold NYJ QB 28 -1
30 Josh Rosen ARI QB 30 0
31 Taysom Hill NO QB 32 1
32 Lamar Jackson BAL QB 31 -1

 

Week 5 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Running back is an interesting position in the pass-happy world of 2018, but I think that makes it all the more fun. I think Detroit is realizing what they have in Kerryon Johnson and have him at No. 13 against an ECR of 16, but that’s not too special. The seven-slot gaps of Jay Ajayi (14 vs. ECR of 21) and Aaron Jones (16 vs. 23) are more notable.

I like Philadelphia to control the game on the ground and am suspecting the Packers will need to lean on its RBBC with Randall Cobb (hamstring) and fan-favorite Geronimo Allison (concussion) dinged up and possibly out. The prospect of playing Marquez Valdes-Scantling is thrilling, don’t get me wrong, but I highly doubt the pass-run ratio stays unaffected should both WRs miss the game.

Deeper down I have both Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell roughly six slots above ECR around the RB30 range, as well as Alfred Morris up at No. 35 against an ECR of 41. I think the Jets look to control the clock against Denver and try to avoid Sam Darnold having to do the bulk of the work, though that plan could go awry quickly. Morris and Breida both get to face a Cardinals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to RBs thus far. They've given up seven rushing TDs while no one else has yielded more than five.

Folks I’m lower on are James White (my No. 19 RB against the ECR’s 14), while Dion Lewis and Mark Ingram are seven slots below ECR. I appreciate White's contributions thus far but I think Julian Edelman's return really lowers his range of outcomes. He's not a bad play, but unless Gronk is confirmed out then you've got Edelman working in some and Josh Gordon also likely increasing his snap count. Lewis simply finds himself in a game projected for under 40 points by Vegas so I'm tempering expectations, while Ingram is simply more of a variable. What is New Orleans really comfortable putting on his plate out of the gate? I can't vault him towards RB1 territory so easily, but I understand the desire.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Todd Gurley LAR RB 1 0
2 Melvin Gordon LAC RB 2 0
3 Alvin Kamara NO RB 3 0
4 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB 4 0
5 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB 5 0
6 Saquon Barkley NYG RB 6 0
7 James Conner PIT RB 7 0
8 David Johnson ARI RB 8 0
9 Sony Michel NE RB 10 1
10 Kareem Hunt KC RB 9 -1
11 Marshawn Lynch OAK RB 11 0
12 Carlos Hyde CLE RB 13 1
13 T.J. Yeldon JAC RB 12 -1
14 Kerryon Johnson DET RB 17 3
15 Jay Ajayi PHI RB 21 6
16 Aaron Jones GB RB 23 7
17 Joe Mixon CIN RB 25 8
18 James White NE RB 14 -4
19 Chris Thompson WAS RB 16 -3
20 Matt Breida SF RB 18 -2
21 Mark Ingram NO RB 15 -6
22 Adrian Peterson WAS RB 22 0
23 Lamar Miller HOU RB 19 -4
24 Alex Collins BAL RB 20 -4
25 Devonta Freeman ATL RB 41 16
26 Dalvin Cook MIN RB 27 1
27 Derrick Henry TEN RB 28 1
28 Phillip Lindsay DEN RB 30 2
29 Kenyan Drake MIA RB 32 3
30 Bilal Powell NYJ RB 35 5
31 Isaiah Crowell NYJ RB 37 6
32 Royce Freeman DEN RB 33 1
33 Dion Lewis TEN RB 26 -7
34 Alfred Morris SF RB 40 6
35 Austin Ekeler LAC RB 36 1
36 Javorius Allen BAL RB 38 2
37 Chris Carson SEA RB 48 11
38 LeSean McCoy BUF RB 29 -9
39 Tevin Coleman ATL RB 24 -15
40 Nyheim Hines IND RB 34 -6
41 Giovani Bernard CIN RB 31 -10
42 Latavius Murray MIN RB 43 1
43 Jamaal Williams GB RB 39 -4
44 Mike Davis SEA RB 44 0
45 Frank Gore MIA RB 46 1
46 Duke Johnson CLE RB 45 -1
47 Ty Montgomery GB RB 42 -5
48 Theo Riddick DET RB 47 -1
49 Corey Grant JAC RB 54 5
50 Jalen Richard OAK RB 51 1
51 Chris Ivory BUF RB 56 5
52 Jordan Wilkins IND RB 49 -3
53 C.J. Anderson CAR RB 50 -3
54 Rashaad Penny SEA RB 52 -2
55 LeGarrette Blount DET RB 57 2
56 Alfred Blue HOU RB 55 -1
57 Corey Clement PHI RB 70 13
58 Doug Martin OAK RB 62 4
59 Devontae Booker DEN RB 58 -1
60 Kyle Juszczyk SF RB 60 0
61 Spencer Ware KC RB 63 2
62 Nick Chubb CLE RB 53 -9
63 Wendell Smallwood PHI RB 61 -2
64 Chase Edmonds ARI RB 64 0
65 Wayne Gallman NYG RB 65 0
66 Marcus Murphy BUF RB 73 7
67 Ito Smith ATL RB 59 -8
68 Rod Smith DAL RB 66 -2
69 Damien Williams KC RB 69 0
70 Malcolm Brown LAR RB 68 -2
71 Stevan Ridley PIT RB 67 -4
72 Derrick Coleman ARI RB 94 22
73 Senorise Perry MIA RB 102 29
74 CJ Ham MIN RB 78 4
75 Roosevelt Nix PIT RB 96 21
76 Mark Walton CIN RB 71 -5
77 Tommy Bohanon JAC RB 83 6
78 C.J. Prosise SEA RB 72 -6
79 Josh Adams PHI RB 86 7
80 Ameer Abdullah DET RB 100 20
81 Cameron Artis-Payne CAR RB 99 18
82 Alex Armah CAR RB 87 5
83 Kalen Ballage MIA RB 76 -7
84 Roc Thomas MIN RB 74 -10
85 Mike Gillislee NO RB 77 -8
86 Patrick DiMarco BUF RB 85 -1
87 Raheem Mostert SF RB 93 6
88 James Develin NE RB 84 -4
89 Zach Line NO RB 89 0
90 Thomas Rawls CIN RB 108 18
91 Tyler Ervin HOU RB 97 6
92 Andy Janovich DEN RB 88 -4
93 Derek Watt LAC RB 92 -1
94 Deandre Washington OAK RB 110 16
95 Trey Edmunds PIT RB 117 22
96 Justin Davis LAR RB 118 22
97 Anthony Firkser TEN RB 119 22
98 Ricky Ortiz ATL RB 105 7
99 Joel Bouagnon GB RB 121 22
100 Justin Jackson LAC RB 114 14
101 John Kelly LAR RB 112 11

 

Week 5 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

There’s little doubting the emergence of the Rams’ WR trio as a force that can sustain each leg of the tripod thanks to not contending with a tight end for looks. Sure, Todd Gurley will take over some weeks, but this is just my stating that each wideout is easily a top-20 option. This changes nobody’s opinion, but I’m truly enamored with them in today’s game.

Anyway, folks I’m markedly higher on are Doug Baldwin (23 vs. 30), Quincy Enunwa (27 vs. 34) and Ryan Grant (38 vs. 43). The Seahawks didn’t take it easy on Baldwin in his return to action, playing him in 76% of snaps while his seven targets paced the team. Baldwin should have the best matchup against the Rams secondary as his slot work should keep him away from Marcus Peters. And Seattle should have to throw...a lot.

Meanwhile, Enunwa hasn’t seen fewer than eight targets in any week and should be able to utilize his size against smaller Denver DBs. Grant is going to move the chains for Indianapolis with T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle out. Like the optics or not, he’s got a great shot at double-digit targets with Indy likely trailing New England on Thursday.

I’m “lower” on A.J. Green because of Xavien Howard, who is blossoming into a shutdown corner in the early going, but you still aren’t benching Green. He’s just unlikely to post a top-10 week is all. More practical fades will be Keelan Cole (36 vs. 27), who may still technically be the No. 1 receiver for Jacksonville, but is as involved as Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief. No reason to pay up for a similar framework. I also have Amari Cooper down five slots and Jordy Nelson down 12, as I think Jared Cook stands as Oakland's best receiver here against a Chargers defense that is better than the stats show so far. They've been burned by Tyreek Hill and the Rams trio -- a caliber of which neither Cooper nor Nelson belong to.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Antonio Brown PIT WR 1 0
2 Michael Thomas NO WR 3 1
3 DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR 4 1
4 Julio Jones ATL WR 2 -2
5 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG WR 6 1
6 Tyreek Hill KC WR 11 5
7 Keenan Allen LAC WR 8 1
8 Juju Smith-Schuster PIT WR 5 -3
9 A.J. Green CIN WR 7 -2
10 Brandin Cooks LAR WR 12 2
11 Davante Adams GB WR 10 -1
12 Adam Thielen MIN WR 9 -3
13 Stefon Diggs MIN WR 13 0
14 Golden Tate DET WR 14 0
15 Cooper Kupp LAR WR 15 0
16 Robert Woods LAR WR 17 1
17 Jarvis Landry CLE WR 19 2
18 Emmanuel Sanders DEN WR 18 0
19 Kenny Golladay DET WR 16 -3
20 Tyler Boyd CIN WR 22 2
21 Will Fuller HOU WR 41 20
22 Marvin Jones DET WR 20 -2
23 Doug Baldwin SEA WR 29 6
24 Corey Davis TEN WR 21 -3
25 Devin Funchess CAR WR 27 2
26 Calvin Ridley ATL WR 24 -2
27 John Brown BAL WR 23 -4
28 Quincy Enunwa NYJ WR 34 6
29 Alshon Jeffery PHI WR 25 -4
30 Sterling Shepard NYG WR 31 1
31 Amari Cooper OAK WR 26 -5
32 Julian Edelman NE WR 33 1
33 Kenny Stills MIA WR 30 -3
34 Sammy Watkins KC WR 65 31
35 Demaryius Thomas DEN WR 32 -3
36 Keelan Cole JAC WR 28 -8
37 Tyler Lockett SEA WR 36 -1
38 Mike Williams LAC WR 35 -3
39 Ryan Grant IND WR 44 5
40 Nelson Agholor PHI WR 38 -2
41 Geronimo Allison GB WR 53 12
42 Michael Crabtree BAL WR 39 -3
43 Dede Westbrook JAC WR 37 -6
44 Taywan Taylor TEN WR 45 1
45 Jamison Crowder WAS WR 46 1
46 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 42 -4
47 Donte Moncrief JAC WR 43 -4
48 Josh Gordon NE WR 55 7
49 Paul Richardson WAS WR 54 5
50 Keke Coutee HOU WR 49 -1
51 Ted Ginn NO WR 48 -3
52 Jordy Nelson OAK WR 40 -12
53 Antonio Callaway CLE WR 47 -6
54 Mohamed Sanu ATL WR 52 -2
55 Chris Hogan NE WR 50 -5
56 Chester Rogers IND WR 51 -5
57 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB WR 75 18
58 Randall Cobb GB WR 87 29
59 Marquise Goodwin SF WR 59 0
60 Robby Anderson NYJ WR 58 -2
61 Christian Kirk ARI WR 56 -5
62 Willie Snead BAL WR 61 -1
63 Albert Wilson MIA WR 66 3
64 Zach Pascal IND WR 70 6
65 Pierre Garcon SF WR 57 -8
66 John Ross CIN WR 74 8
67 Kelvin Benjamin BUF WR 62 -5
68 Josh Doctson WAS WR 72 4
69 Tyrell Williams LAC WR 64 -5
70 Rashard Higgins CLE WR 68 -2
71 Cole Beasley DAL WR 63 -8
72 Danny Amendola MIA WR 67 -5
73 Courtland Sutton DEN WR 60 -13
74 Phillip Dorsett NE WR 69 -5
75 Allen Hurns DAL WR 76 1
76 Martavis Bryant OAK WR 77 1
77 Zay Jones BUF WR 79 2
78 Jakeem Grant MIA WR 80 2
79 Michael Gallup DAL WR 73 -6
80 Devante Parker MIA WR 90 10
81 Chris Conley KC WR 86 5
82 Brandon Marshall SEA WR 78 -4
83 Torrey Smith CAR WR 89 6
84 Cameron Meredith NO WR 71 -13
85 James Washington PIT WR 81 -4
86 Jarius Wright CAR WR 95 9
87 Jordan Matthews PHI WR 84 -3
88 D.J. Moore CAR WR 83 -5
89 Ryan Switzer PIT WR 82 -7
90 Terrelle Pryor NYJ WR 91 1
91 Laquon Treadwell MIN WR 85 -6
92 Chad Williams ARI WR 88 -4
93 J'mon Moore GB WR 110 17
94 Jermaine Kearse NYJ WR 96 2
95 Trent Taylor SF WR 93 -2
96 Tavon Austin DAL WR 94 -2
97 Jaron Brown SEA WR 107 10
98 J.J. Nelson ARI WR 102 4
99 Tajae Sharpe TEN WR 98 -1
100 Cordarrelle Patterson NE WR 92 -8
101 Andre Holmes BUF WR 108 7
102 Kendrick Bourne SF WR 105 3
103 Deonte Thompson DAL WR 103 0
104 Seth Roberts OAK WR 97 -7
105 De'Anthony Thomas KC WR 109 4
106 Travis Benjamin LAC WR 122 16
107 Brandon LaFell OAK WR 132 25
108 Dwayne Harris OAK WR 136 28
109 Chris Moore BAL WR 111 2
110 Michael Floyd WAS WR 142 32
111 Robert Foster BUF WR 112 1
112 Tre'Quan Smith NO WR 100 -12
113 TJ Jones DET WR 121 8
114 Patrick Edwards DET WR 143 29
115 Brian Quick WAS WR 137 22
116 Ray-Ray McCloud BUF WR 124 8
117 Demarcus Robinson KC WR 99 -18
118 Michael Calvin TEN WR 144 26
119 Rod Streater CLE WR 139 20
120 Curtis Samuel CAR WR 115 -5
121 David Moore SEA WR 104 -17
122 Sammie Coates HOU WR 119 -3
123 Daesean Hamilton DEN WR 127 4
124 Russell Shepard NYG WR 114 -10
125 Cody Latimer NYG WR 130 5
126 Marvin Hall ATL WR 117 -9
127 Austin Carr NO WR 118 -9
128 Darius Jennings TEN WR 123 -5
129 Justin Hunter PIT WR 140 11
130 Aldrick Robinson MIN WR 101 -29
131 Terrance Williams DAL WR 146 15
132 Brice Butler DAL WR 126 -6
133 D.J. Chark JAC WR 106 -27
134 Nick Williams TEN WR 141 7
135 Josh Reynolds LAR WR 128 -7
136 Kamar Aiken PHI WR 116 -20
137 Justin Hardy ATL WR 129 -8
138 Rashad Greene JAC WR 152 14
139 Vince Mayle LAC WR 154 15
140 Deandre Carter PHI WR 149 9
141 Geremy Davis LAC WR 138 -3
142 Damiere Byrd CAR WR 156 14
143 Braxton Miller PHI WR 158 15
144 Leonte Carroo MIA WR 159 15
145 Charone Peake NYJ WR 151 6
146 Hunter Sharp BUF WR 161 15
147 Jaydon Mickens JAC WR 162 15
148 Shelton Gibson PHI WR 150 2
149 Jehu Chesson WAS WR 163 14
150 Vyncint Smith HOU WR 153 3

 

Week 5 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Tight ends are always a volatile bunch, but we’ve lost known commodities in Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker and even Tyler Eifert, while Rob Gronkowski enters Week 5 as questionable. I’ve still got Gronk as a top-3 play if he’s active, but you’ll need to accept a zero floor if you start him.

If you picked up Vance McDonald then you’re in luck, as I’ve got him at No. 6 compared to No. 9 per the ECR. The Falcons-Steelers tilt has the highest projected point total from Vegas and McDonald finally has health in his corner. Another plus goes to C.J. Uzomah, who I have at No. 15 compared to No. 24 due to Eifert’s injury and the stronger play of Andy Dalton thus far.

It’s hard not to love Eric Ebron’s setup as one of the last receivers standing in an Indianapolis uniform. While I’m not saying you bench him in a 12-teamer, I do have him at No. 11 compared to No. 7 from the crowd. New England is notorious for taking away a team’s best pass-catching option and Ebron himself is notorious for screwing himself out of production.

Dallas Goedert has an ECR of 15 on Tuesday night and 24 hours later it’s down to 18, but that’s still far too high for me. I’ve got him down at 27 until he shows that he’ll play more than half of Philly’s snaps with Alshon Jeffery back on the field. Sure, his Week 3 was nice, but Jeffery offers that offense a big body on the perimeter.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Rob Gronkowski NE TE 13 12
2 Travis Kelce KC TE 1 -1
3 Zach Ertz PHI TE 2 -1
4 Jordan Reed WAS TE 4 0
5 Jared Cook OAK TE 3 -2
6 Vance McDonald PIT TE 8 2
7 Jimmy Graham GB TE 5 -2
8 George Kittle SF TE 6 -2
9 David Njoku CLE TE 10 1
10 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 9 -1
11 Eric Ebron IND TE 7 -4
12 Benjamin Watson NO TE 14 2
13 Ricky Seals-Jones ARI TE 12 -1
14 Austin Hooper ATL TE 11 -3
15 C.J. Uzomah CIN TE 24 9
16 Austin Seferian-Jenkins JAC TE 15 -1
17 Charles Clay BUF TE 23 6
18 Rhett Ellison NYG TE 20 2
19 Geoff Swaim DAL TE 17 -2
20 Ian Thomas CAR TE 21 1
21 Antonio Gates LAC TE 16 -5
22 Nick Vannett SEA TE 18 -4
23 Jeff Heuerman DEN TE 22 -1
24 Tyler Kroft CIN TE 28 4
25 Mike Gesicki MIA TE 25 0
26 Jesse James PIT TE 26 0
27 Dallas Goedert PHI TE 19 -8
28 Jonnu Smith TEN TE 27 -1
29 Vernon Davis WAS TE 30 1
30 Ryan Griffin HOU TE 29 -1
31 Mark Andrews BAL TE 32 1
32 Jason Croom BUF TE 42 10
33 Nick Boyle BAL TE 31 -2
34 Virgil Green LAC TE 34 0
35 Jordan Akins HOU TE 41 6
36 Maxx Williams BAL TE 37 1
37 Josh Hill NO TE 44 7
38 Gerald Everett LAR TE 36 -2
39 Jermaine Gresham ARI TE 51 12
40 Tyler Higbee LAR TE 39 -1
41 Luke Willson DET TE 33 -8
42 Dwayne Allen NE TE 60 18
43 Jordan Leggett NYJ TE 40 -3
44 Hayden Hurst BAL TE 35 -9
45 Ed Dickson SEA TE 75 30
46 James O'Shaughnessy JAC TE 48 2
47 Luke Stocker TEN TE 46 -1
48 Levine Toilolo DET TE 50 2
49 Eric Tomlinson NYJ TE 52 3
50 Logan Paulsen ATL TE 47 -3
51 Niles Paul JAC TE 64 13
52 Chris Herndon IV NYJ TE 43 -9
53 Demetrius Harris KC TE 38 -15
54 Darren Fells CLE TE 49 -5
55 Neal Sterling NYJ TE 61 6
56 Garrett Celek SF TE 45 -11
57 Logan Thomas BUF TE 71 14
58 Khari Lee BUF TE 66 8
59 Xavier Grimble PIT TE 77 18
60 Scott Simonson NYG TE 65 5
61 Joshua Perkins PHI TE 63 2
62 Derek Carrier OAK TE 59 -3
63 Jerome Cunningham DET TE 79 16
64 A.J. Derby MIA TE 58 -6
65 Kyle Nelson SF TE 80 15
66 Lance Kendricks GB TE 57 -9
67 Lee Smith OAK TE 69 2
68 Nick O'Leary MIA TE 81 13
69 David Morgan MIN TE 62 -7
70 Seth DeValve CLE TE 76 6
71 Blake Jarwin DAL TE 54 -17
72 Rico Gathers DAL TE 70 -2
73 MyCole Pruitt TEN TE 83 10
74 Chris Manhertz CAR TE 68 -6
75 Michael Roberts DET TE 73 -2
76 Darren Waller BAL TE 87 11
77 Jacob Hollister NE TE 67 -10
78 Hakeem Valles DET TE 72 -6
79 Jaylen Samuels PIT TE 89 10
80 Jeremy Sprinkle WAS TE 90 10

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.