Thursday Night Football heads to Lambeau Field this week as we get another heavyweight NFC battle between the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers. Both teams are fresh off sound divisional wins at home and adjusting to the short week.
Washington is a 3.5-point underdog on the road, and Vegas expects plenty of points in this primetime battle with the game total set at 48.5, second-highest on the week. The defenses were the stories of both teams' wins in Week 1, but that could flip on Thursday.
Can Washington go on the road for a statement win early in the season? Or will the Packers assert themselves as the team to beat in the NFC after acquiring superstar Micah Parsons? Let's get to the picks!
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Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
Washington Commanders +3.5 (+150 ML) at Green Bay Packers (-178 ML)
Over/Under (48.5)
Both offenses had productive days despite some rustiness, ranking top 10 in EPA/Play for Week 1. Washington especially had missed opportunities for points and too many penalties. But overall, they moved the ball at will against a Giants defense that was generating a lot of buzz.
Asked Micah Parsons if a QB like Jayden Daniels forces defenses to pick and choose how they rush the passer. Clearly, he’s not about that. No change in mentality coming from Parsons this week.
“We’ve got horse engines now. I don’t see anybody outrunning me from the edge.” pic.twitter.com/ANRudDfZOs
— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) September 9, 2025
This Packers defense looks a bit different and will be a major test for Jayden Daniels and company. He faced Micah Parsons and the Dallas defense twice last season, and they were among the worst games of the season. He averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, completed 62% of his passes for 313 yards, and was sacked eight times in a game and a half against them, with five of those coming from Micah Parsons.
Welcome to Green Bay, Micah Parsons 🤩
DETvsGB on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/rijPUZ6ELm
— NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2025
Washington made it an emphasis to improve the offensive line this offseason with Laremy Tunsil and Josh Conerly Jr. as bookend tackles. It should be a battle in the trenches as both sides are looking stout there this year.
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
Washington is earning some respect with a tighter spread than perhaps some had anticipated at +3.5. That is the kind of respect that Jayden Daniels has earned, even with an incomplete roster around him.
Digging into some specifics of the matchup, the Packers run zone coverage at one of the league's highest rates and do a lot of shell coverage. Green Bay ran Cover 3 and Cover 2 over 75% of the time in their Week 1 win against Detroit. Against those coverages last season, Daniels picked them apart with a 76.5% completion percentage and 8.1 yards per attempt.
On the other side of the ball, head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt want to run man coverage. They acquired Marshon Lattimore at the deadline last season and then drafted Trey Amos in the second round of the draft. In Week 1, they played man at the sixth-highest rate (33%). Jordan Love last season against man, despite having the third most drops in the league last season and not having a consistent man-beater at receiver, ranked sixth in EPA/Play (0.196).
Jordan Love was most successful attacking the Lions in the intermediate area (10-19 air yards), completing 6 of 8 for 108 yards and 2 TDs.
Love completed passes to 10 different Packers receivers, including every receiver who ran at least four routes.#DETvsGB | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/MnDkkoQdLb
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 7, 2025
Green Bay drafted wide receiver Matthew Golden to help alleviate some of those concerns, and all reports have been glowing out of training camp on him. The Packers almost always find answers along the offensive line, but Washington’s defensive front pushed the pocket all day against the Giants, with Dorance Armstrong tying for a league-high nine pressures, which will be something to watch going forward.
Dorance Armstrong is not getting enough credit for his performance on Sunday.
Next Gen Stats credited him with 9 pressures, tied for most in the NFL in Week 1. PFF assigned him 6 in the game. Regardless, he was a standout.
Here are the 9 NGS pressures. pic.twitter.com/SDIWOW7fO8
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) September 10, 2025
Ultimately, these are two evenly matched teams, and I will take the points with Washington. I have confidence in both offenses being up to put up points, but I was also super encouraged by the defensive efforts. Washington should have scored at least 30 against the Giants, and the Packers scored 27 points while running only 47 plays against Detroit, so we will lean to the over.
The Picks: Washington +3.5, (-115), Over 48.5 (-105)
Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jayden Daniels Over 21.5 Passing Completions (-110)
Daniels should be able to pepper plenty of completions in the underneath areas of Green Bay's zone coverage. He's gone over this number in 12 of his 21 career games and has trended better in more recent games. In fact, over the last six regular-season games in 2024 (excluding the Dallas game, where he played only a half) plus the three playoff games, he recorded at least 22 completions in nine straight outings.
Jayden Daniels dime on the move we're back baby pic.twitter.com/OxEBIpZVyI
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) September 8, 2025
With Deebo Samuel inserted into the offense, it allows for easy-schemed completions to get him the ball on the move. Combined with the Packers' frequent use of soft zone coverage, Daniels will have no issue eating up the space that they give him.
Romeo Doubs Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Doubs isn't the most exciting receiver in the game, but he's a good football player and has likely been the Packers' most reliable pass catcher. He was the most efficient Packer receiver last season against man coverage, earning the team's highest target share (17.1%) and YPRR (2.3). The Washington defensive backs present a tough challenge based on the results of Week 1, however.
Jordan Love going DEEP to Romeo Doubs 🎯
DETvsGB on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/3rl3BJGCL8
— NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2025
Doubs could clear this mark with one catch, as he did against the Lions with a 48-yard snag. It's also a volume-based play as the head coach, Matt LaFleur, doesn't always make it clear which receiver will run the most routes. But Doubs consistently has played and run the most routes for Green Bay while being moderately productive.
Thursday Night Football Anytime TD Scorer
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+230)
Croskey-Merritt, or more commonly known now as "Bill," had quite the debut with 10 rushes for 82 yards and a touchdown against the Giants. His explosiveness and wiggle as a runner stand out, in addition to his jump cuts. That was put on display on his touchdown run, where he quickly identified the open space outside and bounced it for the walk-in score. The coaches continue to rave about the rookie back, and he's quickly become a fan favorite.
Charting Jacory Croskey-Merritt's NFL debut 🧮 via @NextGenStats
JCM had the third lowest stuff rate* of any RB with 10+ carries in Week 1 (10%), and the third most rush yards over expected (+39)
*rate of runs going for 0 or negative yards* https://t.co/jYKtNQJMUd pic.twitter.com/R7YeFNfbSU
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) September 8, 2025
Earning half of the team's 20 total running back carries is a bullish start for the seventh-rounder. He should continue to earn volume on the ground, and with his speed, he is capable of breaking one off for a score.
More Picks and Analysis
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