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Week 13 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions


Week 13 is here with a bang! We are past all the byes and we are back to just having the one game on a Thursday. Unfortunately the Saints high flying offense was somewhat lost to the week against a very good Dallas defense. The good news is that other high flying offenses in the Chiefs and Rams face mediocre opponents. The Chargers and Steelers face each other in a could be shootout on Sunday Night Football and the Vikings should be able to have a successful day against a Patriots defense. Cold weather does tend to wreak havoc with players consistency ratings as teams tend to like to run the ball more in the cold weather and pass more out of necessity than desire. It will be interesting to see in the Chargers Steelers and Vikings Patriots game how the marquee players do there as a preview for what we might see in these cold weather games going forward.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Quarterbacks

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Patrick Mahomes 11 303.72 27.61 7.3 20.31 34.91 0.26 132.03
2 Cam Newton 11 247.66 22.51 4.8 17.71 27.32 0.21 128.03
3 Philip Rivers 11 216.66 19.7 3.72 15.97 23.42 0.19 123.87
4 Russell Wilson 11 214.34 19.49 4.85 14.64 24.33 0.25 97.8
5 Andrew Luck 11 237.08 21.55 6.14 15.42 27.69 0.28 97.27
6 Aaron Rodgers 11 223.64 20.33 5.67 14.66 26 0.28 93.27
7 Matt Ryan 11 254.98 23.18 8.12 15.06 31.3 0.35 89.32
8 Ben Roethlisberger 11 245.96 22.36 7.97 14.39 30.33 0.36 85.1
9 Drew Brees 11 257.8 23.44 10.34 13.1 33.77 0.44 76.56
10 Kirk Cousins 11 221.86 20.17 7.29 12.88 27.45 0.36 76
11 Jared Goff 11 248.68 22.61 9.96 12.64 32.57 0.44 73.91
12 Tom Brady 11 197.94 17.99 5.88 12.11 23.88 0.33 73.02
13 Eli Manning 11 167.52 15.23 4.32 10.91 19.54 0.28 68.98
14 Baker Mayfield 9 154.38 17.15 5.76 11.4 22.91 0.34 68.27
15 Deshaun Watson 11 220.78 20.07 8.83 11.24 28.9 0.44 65.69
16 Dak Prescott 11 196.98 17.91 7.1 10.81 25.01 0.4 63.07
17 Alex Smith 10 140 14 4.01 9.99 18.01 0.29 62.92
18 Carson Wentz 9 163.6 18.18 7.79 10.38 25.97 0.43 60.58
19 Mitchell Trubisky 10 215.06 21.51 12.2 9.31 33.7 0.57 59.42
20 Joe Flacco 9 139.22 15.47 5.51 9.96 20.98 0.36 58.91
21 CJ Beathard 5 80.98 16.2 6.25 9.94 22.45 0.39 58.15
22 Jimmy Garoppolo 3 46.02 15.34 5.76 9.58 21.1 0.38 56.19
23 Ryan Fitzpatrick 8 165.84 20.73 12.47 8.26 33.2 0.6 55.2
24 Andy Dalton 11 174.54 15.87 6.66 9.21 22.52 0.42 53.7
25 Matthew Stafford 11 168.04 15.28 6.18 9.09 21.46 0.4 53.01
26 Jameis Winston 6 106.78 17.8 9.26 8.53 27.06 0.52 51.99
27 Colt McCoy 2 25.18 12.59 4.14 8.45 16.73 0.33 50.84
28 Case Keenum 11 153.28 13.93 5.4 8.54 19.33 0.39 49.91
29 Blake Bortles 11 173.42 15.77 8.88 6.89 24.64 0.56 43.76
30 Derek Carr 11 159.38 14.49 7.68 6.81 22.16 0.53 41.84

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. As always there is not really much to say about the quarterback position. The top-12 guys are all solid and players you only bench when they have a tough matchup.

At #14 we have Baker Mayfield who has looked really solid recently. I am not to the must-start point yet but if he can have success against a good Texans defense this week it will go a long way towards putting him close to that category. Jameis Winston is another guy to watch down the stretch as he very likely is aware that his career is on the line. Generally guys with his talent can have success in these spots and this week he faces a bad pass defense in Carolina.

 

Running Backs

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Todd Gurley 11 294.4 26.76 6.73 20.03 33.49 0.25 133.19
2 Melvin Gordon 10 247.5 24.75 5.76 18.99 30.51 0.23 131.04
3 Saquon Barkley 11 285 25.91 7.22 18.69 33.13 0.28 118.91
4 Christian McCaffrey 11 267.5 24.32 10.6 13.71 34.92 0.44 80.08
5 Ezekiel Elliott 11 242.7 22.06 8.86 13.2 30.93 0.4 76.98
6 Alvin Kamara 11 269.5 24.5 11.95 12.55 36.45 0.49 74.72
7 James Conner 11 245.2 22.29 11.25 11.04 33.54 0.5 66.47
8 Kareem Hunt 11 231.2 21.02 9.85 11.17 30.87 0.47 65.87
9 James White 11 216 19.64 8.72 10.91 28.36 0.44 63.84
10 Joe Mixon 9 160.6 17.84 7.14 10.71 24.98 0.4 62.46
11 David Johnson 11 183.8 16.71 8.19 8.52 24.9 0.49 50.79
12 Alex Collins 10 115.6 11.56 3.5 8.06 15.06 0.3 49.75
13 Phillip Lindsay 11 162.7 14.79 6.31 8.48 21.1 0.43 49.46
14 Marshawn Lynch 6 79 13.17 4.92 8.24 18.09 0.37 48.39
15 Leonard Fournette 5 88.8 17.76 10.58 7.18 28.34 0.6 47.57
16 Kerryon Johnson 10 142.4 14.24 6.2 8.04 20.44 0.44 46.94
17 Devonta Freeman 2 14.1 7.05 1.34 5.71 8.39 0.19 44.04
18 TJ Yeldon 11 158.8 14.44 7.14 7.29 21.58 0.49 43.61
19 Lamar Miller 10 133.5 13.35 6.1 7.25 19.45 0.46 42.58
20 Aaron Jones 9 137.9 15.32 9.58 5.74 24.91 0.63 39.82
21 Tevin Coleman 11 148.4 13.49 7.06 6.43 20.55 0.52 39.28
22 Tarik Cohen 11 165.8 15.07 9.62 5.46 24.69 0.64 38.7
23 Mark Ingram 7 100.4 14.34 8.45 5.89 22.79 0.59 38.69
24 Adrian Peterson 11 152.5 13.86 8.34 5.53 22.2 0.6 36.92
25 Marlon Mack 7 106 15.14 10.6 4.55 25.74 0.7 36.79
26 Theo Riddick 9 83.4 9.27 3.23 6.04 12.5 0.35 35.86
27 Kenyan Drake 11 154.6 14.05 9.1 4.95 23.16 0.65 35.76
28 Chris Carson 9 106.3 11.81 6.6 5.21 18.41 0.56 32.94
29 Austin Ekeler 11 134.3 12.21 7.45 4.76 19.66 0.61 32.22
30 Jay Ajayi 4 43.4 10.85 5.69 5.16 16.54 0.52 31.55
31 Matt Breida 11 137.6 12.51 8.42 4.09 20.93 0.67 31.1
32 Jalen Richard 11 109.6 9.96 4.81 5.15 14.78 0.48 30.58
33 Chris Thompson 5 66.2 13.24 10.12 3.12 23.36 0.76 30.56
34 Dion Lewis 11 128.9 11.72 7.35 4.37 19.06 0.63 30.41
35 Sony Michel 8 98.9 12.36 8.49 3.87 20.86 0.69 30.36
36 Dalvin Cook 6 65 10.83 6.29 4.55 17.12 0.58 29.5
37 Jordan Howard 11 107.8 9.8 5.44 4.36 15.24 0.56 27.45
38 Isaiah Crowell 11 126.3 11.48 8.69 2.79 20.18 0.76 26.65
39 Nyheim Hines 11 112.1 10.19 6.93 3.26 17.12 0.68 25.17
40 Bilal Powell 7 62.3 8.9 4.93 3.97 13.83 0.55 24.97
41 Ito Smith 10 78.2 7.82 3.63 4.19 11.45 0.46 24.68
42 Royce Freeman 9 72.7 8.08 3.98 4.1 12.06 0.49 24.47
43 Nick Chubb 11 134.5 12.23 12.4 -0.18 24.63 1.01 24.28
44 LeSean McCoy 10 99.4 9.94 7.02 2.92 16.96 0.71 24.02
45 Peyton Barber 11 105.1 9.55 6.36 3.2 15.91 0.67 23.91
46 Elijah McGuire 3 21.3 7.1 3.03 4.07 10.13 0.43 23.71
47 Frank Gore 11 84.5 7.68 3.86 3.82 11.55 0.5 22.95
48 Ty Montgomery 8 57.8 7.23 3.61 3.61 10.84 0.5 21.68
49 Ty Montgomery 8 57.8 7.23 3.61 3.61 10.84 0.5 21.68
50 Giovani Bernard 7 70.6 10.09 8.96 1.12 19.05 0.89 21.43

Running back is fairly self explanatory in its top-20 when you ignore the injured guys. Alex Collins is a name to highlight for a couple of reason. Firstly, there is a chance he has been supplanted by Gus Edwards as the number one in that run game. However, Edwards is a little banged up after two big weeks so if Collins is active he could get a chance to prove himself in Week 13.

Aaron Jones is slowly climbing up this board and yet we do not trust him because of the weird way the Packers have used him this season. Jones is a quality running back and has become a reliable rusher when he is given the opportunity. Theo Riddick could see a decrease in his value and consistency the next few weeks if Kerryon Johnson is healthy and running well. This Rams offense can be run on so the Blount, Johnson, Riddick combo could have a solid day.

Nick Chubb's ranking here is a very misleading number. Since becoming the leading rusher in that backfield he has been superb. This is a tough matchup but Chubb is a legitimate top running back who I welcomed to the RB1 club a few weeks ago.

 

Wide Receivers

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Julian Edelman 7 120.8 17.26 2.64 14.62 19.9 0.15 130.06
2 Antonio Brown 11 224.4 20.4 4.48 15.92 24.88 0.22 113.35
3 Adam Thielen 11 257.8 23.44 6.33 17.11 29.76 0.27 110.23
4 Davante Adams 11 239.2 21.75 6.06 15.69 27.8 0.28 99.81
5 Julio Jones 11 236.6 21.51 6.09 15.42 27.6 0.28 97.44
6 DeAndre Hopkins 11 227.7 20.7 6.31 14.39 27.01 0.3 88.59
7 AJ Green 8 156.7 19.59 5.98 13.61 25.56 0.31 83.77
8 Keith Kirkwood 3 20.3 6.77 0.64 6.12 7.41 0.1 77.99
9 Odell Beckham Jr 11 210.6 19.15 6.9 12.24 26.05 0.36 72.23
10 Brandin Cooks 10 184.5 18.45 6.37 12.08 24.82 0.35 71.85
11 Keenan Allen 11 185.3 16.85 5.41 11.43 22.26 0.32 69.28
12 Willie Snead 10 111.2 11.12 2.15 8.97 13.27 0.19 68.76
13 Michael Thomas 11 244 22.18 11.57 10.61 33.75 0.52 64.71
14 Stefon Diggs 10 204.8 20.48 9.57 10.91 30.05 0.47 64.3
15 Tyreek Hill 11 252.7 22.97 12.87 10.1 35.84 0.56 63.98
16 Emmanuel Sanders 11 188.2 17.11 6.83 10.28 23.94 0.4 59.96
17 JuJu Smith-Schuster 11 207.8 18.89 8.82 10.07 27.71 0.47 59.33
18 Robert Woods 11 186.5 16.95 6.8 10.15 23.75 0.4 59.23
19 Tyler Lockett 11 161.9 14.72 4.92 9.79 19.64 0.33 58.71
20 Mike Evans 11 203.3 18.48 9.06 9.42 27.55 0.49 56.17
21 Tyler Boyd 11 184.4 16.76 8.55 8.21 25.31 0.51 49.63
22 Trey Quinn 2 22.5 11.25 3.32 7.93 14.57 0.3 49.33
23 T.Y. Hilton 9 152 16.89 9.07 7.81 25.96 0.54 48.32
24 Kenny Golladay 11 163.2 14.84 7.15 7.69 21.99 0.48 45.62
25 Cooper Kupp 8 135.1 16.89 10.49 6.4 27.38 0.62 44.07
26 Dontrelle Inman 4 39.7 9.93 2.92 7 12.85 0.29 43.65
27 Will Fuller 7 108.3 15.47 8.55 6.92 24.02 0.55 43.46
28 Josh Gordon 9 109.4 12.16 5.58 6.57 17.74 0.46 38.63
29 Geronimo Allison 5 62.3 12.46 5.98 6.48 18.44 0.48 38.42
30 Curtis Samuel 7 81.4 11.63 5.2 6.43 16.83 0.45 37.64
31 Golden Tate 10 139.8 13.98 8.46 5.52 22.44 0.61 37.08
32 DeSean Jackson 11 150.5 13.68 8.04 5.64 21.72 0.59 36.96
33 Chris Godwin 11 126.5 11.5 5.42 6.08 16.92 0.47 35.91
34 Marvin Jones 9 116.8 12.98 7.51 5.47 20.49 0.58 35.4
35 Brandon LaFell 4 37.5 9.38 3.38 5.99 12.76 0.36 35.35
36 Alshon Jeffery 8 113.1 14.14 9.54 4.6 23.67 0.67 35.1
37 Cameron Meredith 3 26.4 8.8 3.01 5.79 11.81 0.34 34.51
38 Dede Westbrook 11 126.9 11.54 5.91 5.62 17.45 0.51 34.04
39 Jarvis Landry 11 140 12.73 7.71 5.02 20.43 0.61 33.75
40 Calvin Ridley 11 161.2 14.65 11.27 3.38 25.92 0.77 33.71
41 Mohamed Sanu 11 114.8 10.44 4.71 5.73 15.14 0.45 33.57
42 Devin Funchess 10 115.6 11.56 6.22 5.34 17.78 0.54 33.03
43 Corey Davis 11 145.4 13.22 9.27 3.95 22.49 0.7 32.07
44 Sterling Shepard 11 132.7 12.06 7.35 4.72 19.41 0.61 31.88
45 Anthony Miller 10 105.3 10.53 5.2 5.33 15.73 0.49 31.87
46 Michael Crabtree 11 117 10.64 5.44 5.2 16.07 0.51 31.44
47 Allen Robinson 9 113.4 12.6 8.44 4.16 21.04 0.67 31.41
48 Larry Fitzgerald 11 124 11.27 6.46 4.81 17.74 0.57 30.93
49 Adam Humphries 11 129.6 11.78 7.31 4.48 19.09 0.62 30.78
50 Albert Wilson 7 90.7 12.96 9.55 3.41 22.5 0.74 30.55

I know Trey Quinn (#22) only has two games against him but I have reason to think what he is doing is going to be important down the stretch. In the last two weeks he has seen 10 targets and found the end zone. He will not be spectacular but in deeper leagues I think he can provide value as a solid part of a very different looking offense in Washington.

Do not sleep on Dontrelle Inman either. Over the last four games he has 21 targets, at least three receptions per game and a touchdown in the last game against the Jaguars. With a lot of attention on Hilton and the tight ends Inman is extremely interesting. A similar message comes with Adam Humphries who often gets missed in the shuffle by defenses opposing the Buccaneers. Humphries has four touchdowns in the last five weeks and averages five receptions per game in that time. He seems to be a fairly big part of the game plan and Winston clearly has some faith in him.

Final name I want to highlight is not actually on this list. Josh Reynolds has had an up-and-down season with some injuries and playing as the fourth wide receiver. However, we saw against Kansas City what he can do and if we only included games in which Kupp is injured I would expect him to rank fairly nicely.

 

Tight Ends

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Zach Ertz 11 211.5 19.23 9.95 9.28 29.17 0.52 56.39
2 Travis Kelce 11 200.4 18.22 8.83 9.38 27.05 0.48 55.79
3 George Kittle 11 159.3 14.48 6.55 7.93 21.03 0.45 46.51
4 Eric Ebron 11 164.8 14.98 8.23 6.75 23.21 0.55 42.26
5 Tyler Conklin 2 3.3 1.65 0.07 1.58 1.72 0.04 40.15
6 Jordan Reed 11 117.7 10.7 4.42 6.28 15.12 0.41 36.62
7 Hakeem Valles 2 3.1 1.55 0.07 1.48 1.62 0.05 35.53
8 OJ Howard 10 124.5 12.45 6.99 5.46 19.44 0.56 34.62
9 Rob Gronkowski 8 94.4 11.8 6.57 5.23 18.37 0.56 33.01
10 Jack Doyle 6 62.5 10.42 5.33 5.09 15.75 0.51 30.78
11 Tyler Eifert 4 38.9 9.73 4.65 5.07 14.38 0.48 30.05
12 Kyle Rudolph 11 100.5 9.14 4 5.14 13.13 0.44 30.01
13 Jared Cook 11 137.9 12.54 9.09 3.45 21.63 0.73 29.83
14 Greg Olsen 8 80.8 10.1 5.37 4.73 15.47 0.53 29.09
15 Austin Hooper 11 121.6 11.05 6.92 4.13 17.98 0.63 28.71
16 Vance McDonald 10 98.4 9.84 5.75 4.09 15.59 0.58 26.69
17 Trey Burton 11 114.8 10.44 7.74 2.7 18.18 0.74 24.51
18 David Njoku 11 104.1 9.46 6.35 3.12 15.81 0.67 23.57
19 Chris Herndon 9 78.4 8.71 5.18 3.53 13.89 0.59 23.36
20 Geoff Swaim 8 56.2 7.03 3.11 3.92 10.13 0.44 22.92
21 Evan Engram 7 62.7 8.96 5.93 3.03 14.89 0.66 22.49
22 Jimmy Graham 11 96.6 8.78 5.7 3.08 14.49 0.65 22.3
23 Mark Andrews 11 68.7 6.25 2.69 3.56 8.93 0.43 20.76
24 Benjamin Watson 9 71.3 7.92 5.51 2.41 13.43 0.7 19.31
25 MyCole Pruitt 2 5.2 2.6 0.42 2.18 3.02 0.16 18.53
26 Will Dissly 4 35.6 8.9 8.98 -0.08 17.88 1.01 17.72
27 CJ Uzomah 11 69.7 6.34 3.87 2.47 10.21 0.61 16.71
28 Lee Smith 3 13.8 4.6 1.76 2.84 6.36 0.38 16.64
29 Anthony Firkser 4 23.2 5.8 3.14 2.66 8.94 0.54 16.53
30 Jesse James 10 75.9 7.59 6.55 1.04 14.14 0.86 16.38

The loss of Jack Doyle to the tight end position is a huge blow. His injury sounds grim and I hope he gets well soon. Doyle may not have brought the highest upside at the position but he brought a solid floor week-in week-out when he was healthy. He will be sorely missed.

Evan Engram once again has an injury issue, this time his hamstring. It is frustrating for a player who had been building momentum in that offense. Njoku is another guy with injury issues and has had a weird pattern the last few weeks. Since Week 7 he has alternated four or more catches in a game with either zero or one. It must just be a case of game script as he has also seen his targets drop off in those two weeks where he struggled. If he is active Sunday then if the pattern were to hold he would be in line for another bad week.

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