Week 11 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Howdy, and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings front and center and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).  Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros out of 125 last season and am fighting against the incredibly smart field yet again.

One can't regularly land in the top 25% of this field by accident and I absolutely think you should hold us accountable by objective measures such as this. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

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Week 11 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

After failing to top 25 rushing yards in any of his first seven games, Russell Wilson (My Rank: 8, ECR: 10) has put in 133 ground yards over the last two weeks and he continues to drop TD dimes at an unsustainable rate. His 21 pass TDs on just 163 completions is absurd, though Deshaun Watson’s crazy rate from 2017 softened us up to this. With the early hamstring injury seemingly out of the way and the rushing floor back, Russ needs to be treated as a legit top-10 threat every week, let alone one against a battered Green Bay defense.

Speaking of rushing yards, Trubisky’s got 320 of them! He trails only Cam Newton (352) for the lead out of all QBs and is one of five signal-callers with at least three rush TDs. Mix this with a now-healthy Allen Robinson, an emerging Anthony Miller and strong complementary pieces in Tarik Cohen, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel, sprinkle in some Matt Nagy innovation and baby, you’ve got a stew going at home against a Vikings defense that’s better against the run than the pass.

Roethlisberger slapped me across the face last week by going off against Carolina in a game that I never would’ve guessed would yield 52 Pittsburgh points. Never, ever. Alas, that was still at home (and in primetime, if you buy that narrative) and now Big Ben hits the road for a date with the Jaguars. I recognize Carson Wentz and Andrew Luck just put up three-touchdown games against the Jags, but both were road games (the Philly one was in London). Big Ben has thrown 14 TDs and 3 INTs in five home games and 7 TDs vs. 4 INTs in four road contests. I'm not burying him in my ranks, but I can't seat him comfortably near my top-10.

If I pressed you to rank Stafford among QBs thus far (in fantasy points) off the top right now, what would you say? If you answered, “No. 19” then you are a stud (or suffering through owning him). Technically, he’s 24th on average points for any QB who has started a game, but then Matt Barkley is ahead of him. He salvaged Week 10 with some garbage-time scores but looks to be sorely missing Golden Tate on an offense that has begun to embrace the ground game in earnest. I know the name brand has you clinging to hope, but if Marvin Jones is less than 100% then I really, really suggest you abandon ship and embrace the stream life.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB	1	0
2	Jared Goff	LAR	QB	2	0
3	Cam Newton	CAR	QB	4	1
4	Drew Brees	NO	QB	3	-1
5	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	6	1
6	Andrew Luck	IND	QB	7	1
7	Carson Wentz	PHI	QB	5	-2
8	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB	10	2
9	Deshaun Watson	HOU	QB	9	0
10	Mitch Trubisky	CHI	QB	12	2
11	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	8	-3
12	Ryan Fitzpatrick	TB	QB	13	1
13	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	11	-2
14	Philip Rivers	LAC	QB	14	0
15	Kirk Cousins	MIN	QB	15	0
16	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB	16	0
17	Marcus Mariota	TEN	QB	17	0
18	Eli Manning	NYG	QB	18	0
19	Blake Bortles	JAC	QB	20	1
20	Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	19	-1
21	Josh Rosen	ARI	QB	21	0
22	Alex Smith	WAS	QB	22	0
23	Joe Flacco	BAL	QB	26	3
24	Lamar Jackson	BAL	QB	24	0
25	Case Keenum	DEN	QB	23	-2
26	Andy Dalton	CIN	QB	25	-1
27	Derek Carr	OAK	QB	27	0
28	Taysom Hill	NO	QB	28	0
29	Jameis Winston	TB	QB	29	0

 

Week 11 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

I’ve been going against Alex Collins (18 vs. 20) often this season, but Week 11 against a reeling Bengals team should offer the rushing game a solid workload. The Vegas lines aren’t out with Baltimore’s QB situation in limbo, but both a hobbled Joe Flacco or upstart Lamar Jackson/Robert Griffin III should mean the game is more in the hands of its RBs and defense. FootballOutsiders gives Baltimore’s O-line an 80% power success rate, third-best in the NFL, so I’m in on Collins as an RB2.

After a rough first five games, Lamar Miller (20 vs. 25) turned things on in Week 7 with a 22-100-1 rush line (against Jacksonville, of all teams) before turning in an 18-133-1 showing in Week 8. Of course, he came back to earth with a horrid 12-21-0 line against Denver, but at least he had 27 receiving yards on two catches. With Deshaun Watson’s improved health and a Demaryius Thomas trade to soften the Will Fuller injury blow, Houston looks deserving of being third-point road favorites over Washington (who made Peyton Barber somehow look good in Week 10, yielding 61 yards on 13 carries).

Jalen Richard (30 vs. 34) and the Raiders will be desperate for weapons and if they want to actually score touchdowns, something I’m not fully convinced they want to do, they should lean on Richard and Jared Cook (more on that later). I’m with everyone else that Doug Martin is right at the RB2/3 cusp around No. 25, but Richard should get more run if Oakland is left with Seth Roberts as its primary wideout come Sunday.

Highlight-worthy runs such as Dalvin Cook’s (24 vs. 19) 70-yard gallop where he recorded the fastest speed reached by a ballcarrier in ‘18 (22.07 mph) can anchor us, but he still put up just 19 yards on the other nine carries and I’m very worried about Latavius Murray inside the red zone. Cook tallied a 57% snap share against Murray's 45% in Week 9 and Murray got three red-zone opportunities compared to Cook's zero. Oh, and there’s the whole “Minnesota’s facing the Bears defense” thing. The Bears have surrendered one rushing TD to an RB all year and yield an average rushing line of 20-68-0. Bleh.

I don’t want to speak much on Rashaad Penny (34 vs. 28) or the rest of the Seahawks in terms of their ECR because Chris Carson’s status will likely need to be finalized for the value to count for something. While Penny looked great and has the first-round pedigree, Carson and Mike Davis will make this a three-headed monster that likely cannibalizes itself in terms of fantasy value. This goes the same for knocking down the Eagles triumvirate (Josh Adams - 37 vs. 31, Wendell Smallwood - 42 vs. 37, and Corey Clement - 47 vs. 41), who will battle each other and New Orleans’ incredible run defense for fantasy value.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Todd Gurley	LAR	RB	1	0
2	Saquon Barkley	NYG	RB	3	1
3	Melvin Gordon	LAC	RB	2	-1
4	David Johnson	ARI	RB	5	1
5	Kareem Hunt	KC	RB	6	1
6	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	RB	4	-2
7	Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	7	0
8	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	RB	8	0
9	James Conner	PIT	RB	9	0
10	Leonard Fournette	JAC	RB	10	0
11	Aaron Jones	GB	RB	11	0
12	Tevin Coleman	ATL	RB	12	0
13	Joe Mixon	CIN	RB	13	0
14	Mark Ingram	NO	RB	14	0
15	Phillip Lindsay	DEN	RB	16	1
16	Marlon Mack	IND	RB	15	-1
17	Dion Lewis	TEN	RB	18	1
18	Alex Collins	BAL	RB	20	2
19	Kerryon Johnson	DET	RB	17	-2
20	Lamar Miller	HOU	RB	25	5
21	Adrian Peterson	WAS	RB	21	0
22	Tarik Cohen	CHI	RB	22	0
23	Jordan Howard	CHI	RB	24	1
24	Dalvin Cook	MIN	RB	19	-5
25	Doug Martin	OAK	RB	23	-2
26	Derrick Henry	TEN	RB	26	0
27	Peyton Barber	TB	RB	27	0
28	Mike Davis	SEA	RB	30	2
29	Ito Smith	ATL	RB	28	-1
30	Jalen Richard	OAK	RB	33	3
31	Chris Carson	SEA	RB	39	8
32	Latavius Murray	MIN	RB	35	3
33	Austin Ekeler	LAC	RB	32	-1
34	Rashaad Penny	SEA	RB	29	-5
35	Royce Freeman	DEN	RB	34	-1
36	Chris Thompson	WAS	RB	56	20
37	Josh Adams	PHI	RB	31	-6
38	Giovani Bernard	CIN	RB	41	3
39	Nyheim Hines	IND	RB	36	-3
40	T.J. Yeldon	JAC	RB	40	0
41	Wendell Smallwood	PHI	RB	37	-4
42	Theo Riddick	DET	RB	38	-4
43	LeGarrette Blount	DET	RB	46	3
44	Devontae Booker	DEN	RB	50	6
45	Jacquizz Rodgers	TB	RB	43	-2
46	Ty Montgomery	BAL	RB	48	2
47	Corey Clement	PHI	RB	42	-5
48	Jamaal Williams	GB	RB	47	-1
49	Javorius Allen	BAL	RB	44	-5
50	Alfred Blue	HOU	RB	45	-5
51	Spencer Ware	KC	RB	49	-2
52	Chase Edmonds	ARI	RB	55	3
53	Carlos Hyde	JAC	RB	53	0
54	Kapri Bibbs	WAS	RB	51	-3
55	Jordan Wilkins	IND	RB	52	-3
56	Wayne Gallman	NYG	RB	58	2
57	Malcolm Brown	LAR	RB	54	-3
58	Deandre Washington	OAK	RB	59	1
59	Rod Smith	DAL	RB	57	-2
60	Mark Walton	CIN	RB	62	2
61	Stevan Ridley	PIT	RB	61	0
62	CJ Ham	MIN	RB	63	1
63	Benny Cunningham	CHI	RB	66	3
64	Elijhaa Penny	NYG	RB	65	1
65	C.J. Prosise	SEA	RB	64	-1
66	Andy Janovich	DEN	RB	67	1
67	Dwayne Washington	NO	RB	74	7
68	Samaje Perine	WAS	RB	68	0

 

Week 11 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

It’s Davante Adams who should get to pick on Seattle’s Tre Flowers the most, as Marquez Valdes-Scantling (23 vs. 28) should man the slot with Randall Cobb out. This raises his floor with higher-percentage targets closer to Mr. Aaron Rodgers, but a one-week sample without Cobb gave MVS a paltry 5.0 average depth of target (aDOT) against a 10.3 for Equanimeous St. Brown and 13.3 for Adams on the perimeter.

As for Michael Crabtree (29 vs. 37), I realize this means buying into Baltimore’s quarterback situation but he’s primed for a big game. Over their last four games, Crabtree’s 452 air yards lead Willie Snead (308) and John Brown (289) while his 15.6 aDOT also bests both Snead (8.6) and Brown (12.6). He falls into my top-30 but I also won’t twist anyone’s arm into playing him, this is just what my tool is plopping into my lap.

And if tapping into Baltimore’s passing game wasn’t riveting enough for you, how about we head to D.C. and lean on Alex Smith! No? Okay, I get it. But seriously, Maurice Harris (40 vs. 53) leads all Washington wideouts with 34 targets since hitting the field in Week 5 and paces the whole roster with 278 receiving yards, which I know isn’t that enticing, but the potential for more exists as three-point underdogs at home.

Allen Robinson (32 vs. 26) returned to action with a bang in Week 10, logging a superb 133 yards with two touchdowns on six catches. While I love Trubisky for the composite picture that he paints, AR12 is up against a Minnesota secondary that ranks first in the NFL per FootballOutsiders’ DVOA metric against No. 1 WRs. I won't be surprised if he's the erased one while the others put in work.

And then there’s Devin Funchess (39 vs. 33), whose 31 targets over Carolina’s last five games are tied with Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen (28) isn’t far behind. But let’s sharpen the lens to their last three games, where the target share rattles out as such: CMC (17), Olsen (16), DJ Moore (13), Funchess (12) and Curtis Samuel (11). The good news for him is that his 11 aDOT still leads the pack within that window. But the Panthers are stuck facing the Lions and Darius Slay already got a limited practice in on Wednesday, so I’d wager he plays and dampens Funchess’ already downward-trending outlook.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Michael Thomas	NO	WR	1	0
2	Odell Beckham Jr.	NYG	WR	2	0
3	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	WR	3	0
4	Davante Adams	GB	WR	8	4
5	Tyreek Hill	KC	WR	5	0
6	Adam Thielen	MIN	WR	4	-2
7	Robert Woods	LAR	WR	10	3
8	Julio Jones	ATL	WR	7	-1
9	Antonio Brown	PIT	WR	6	-3
10	Brandin Cooks	LAR	WR	9	-1
11	Keenan Allen	LAC	WR	11	0
12	Mike Evans	TB	WR	12	0
13	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	WR	18	5
14	JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	WR	13	-1
15	Kenny Golladay	DET	WR	16	1
16	T.Y. Hilton	IND	WR	14	-2
17	Alshon Jeffery	PHI	WR	15	-2
18	Stefon Diggs	MIN	WR	17	-1
19	Marvin Jones	DET	WR	23	4
20	Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	24	4
21	Amari Cooper	DAL	WR	19	-2
22	John Brown	BAL	WR	21	-1
23	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	WR	28	5
24	Corey Davis	TEN	WR	20	-4
25	Tyler Boyd	CIN	WR	22	-3
26	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	WR	27	1
27	DeSean Jackson	TB	WR	29	2
28	Sammy Watkins	KC	WR	25	-3
29	Michael Crabtree	BAL	WR	37	8
30	Doug Baldwin	SEA	WR	32	2
31	Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	31	0
32	Allen Robinson	CHI	WR	26	-6
33	Sterling Shepard	NYG	WR	30	-3
34	Golden Tate	PHI	WR	35	1
35	Christian Kirk	ARI	WR	39	4
36	Calvin Ridley	ATL	WR	34	-2
37	Devin Funchess	CAR	WR	33	-4
38	Demaryius Thomas	HOU	WR	36	-2
39	Anthony Miller	CHI	WR	38	-1
40	Maurice Harris	WAS	WR	53	13
41	Tyrell Williams	LAC	WR	42	1
42	Chris Godwin	TB	WR	40	-2
43	Donte Moncrief	JAC	WR	41	-2
44	Keke Coutee	HOU	WR	51	7
45	Willie Snead	BAL	WR	48	3
46	Josh Reynolds	LAR	WR	47	1
47	Dede Westbrook	JAC	WR	43	-4
48	Mohamed Sanu	ATL	WR	45	-3
49	D.J. Moore	CAR	WR	46	-3
50	Tre'Quan Smith	NO	WR	44	-6
51	Nelson Agholor	PHI	WR	57	6
52	Mike Williams	LAC	WR	55	3
53	Michael Gallup	DAL	WR	58	5
54	Taylor Gabriel	CHI	WR	50	-4
55	Cole Beasley	DAL	WR	56	1
56	David Moore	SEA	WR	49	-7
57	John Ross	CIN	WR	52	-5
58	Adam Humphries	TB	WR	60	2
59	Josh Doctson	WAS	WR	54	-5
60	Seth Roberts	OAK	WR	62	2
61	Curtis Samuel	CAR	WR	59	-2
62	Brandon LaFell	OAK	WR	61	-1
63	Jamison Crowder	WAS	WR	72	9
64	Ryan Grant	IND	WR	63	-1
65	Chester Rogers	IND	WR	69	4
66	Equanimeous St. Brown	GB	WR	74	8
67	Taywan Taylor	TEN	WR	76	9
68	Tajae Sharpe	TEN	WR	67	-1
69	D.J. Chark	JAC	WR	70	1
70	Martavis Bryant	OAK	WR	94	24
71	Dontrelle Inman	IND	WR	68	-3
72	Laquon Treadwell	MIN	WR	73	1
73	Chad Williams	ARI	WR	98	25
74	Allen Hurns	DAL	WR	64	-10
75	Chris Conley	KC	WR	66	-9
76	Cam Batson	TEN	WR	88	12
77	Aldrick Robinson	MIN	WR	77	0
78	James Washington	PIT	WR	71	-7
79	Keelan Cole	JAC	WR	65	-14
80	TJ Jones	DET	WR	75	-5
81	Tim Patrick	DEN	WR	80	-1
82	Ryan Switzer	PIT	WR	78	-4
83	Jarius Wright	CAR	WR	79	-4
84	Jaron Brown	SEA	WR	87	3
85	Austin Carr	NO	WR	82	-3
86	Bennie Fowler	NYG	WR	83	-3
87	Auden Tate	CIN	WR	91	4
88	Torrey Smith	CAR	WR	101	13
89	Travis Benjamin	LAC	WR	81	-8
90	Demarcus Robinson	KC	WR	85	-5
91	Brandon Marshall	NO	WR	99	8
92	Alex Erickson	CIN	WR	86	-6
93	Michael Floyd	WAS	WR	89	-4
94	Brandon Powell	DET	WR	92	-2
95	Jordan Matthews	PHI	WR	84	-11
96	Cody Core	CIN	WR	93	-3
97	Chris Moore	BAL	WR	90	-7
98	Dwayne Harris	OAK	WR	96	-2
99	Marvin Hall	ATL	WR	95	-4
100	Justin Hardy	ATL	WR	100	0
101	Russell Shepard	NYG	WR	104	3
102	Vyncint Smith	HOU	WR	105	3
103	Zach Pascal	IND	WR	107	4
104	J.J. Nelson	ARI	WR	112	8
105	Darrius Heyward-Bey	PIT	WR	109	4
106	Chad Beebe	MIN	WR	106	0
107	Josh Bellamy	CHI	WR	102	-5
108	Tavon Austin	DAL	WR	114	6
109	Justin Hunter	PIT	WR	126	17
110	J'mon Moore	GB	WR	103	-7
111	Kevin White	CHI	WR	125	14
112	Sammie Coates	HOU	WR	120	8
113	Rashad Greene	JAC	WR	115	2
114	Damiere Byrd	CAR	WR	130	16
115	Darius Jennings	TEN	WR	110	-5
116	Josh Malone	CIN	WR	131	15

 

Week 11 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

We know who Jared Cook (6 vs. 11) is -- a guy with incredible athleticism and inconsistency on a team that is consistently terrible -- but Oakland may be down both Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant on the outside. Brandon LaFell and Seth Roberts are not playmakers, which means Cook should be a huge focal point on Sunday in Arizona. He saw nine targets in Week 10 and I’d expect the same here, not to mention he’s one-of-four TEs with 500+ yards, which makes him a top-six play for me.

Heuerman (11 vs. 16) stepped up in Week 9, posting a ridiculous 10-83-1 line on 11 targets to head into Denver’s bye with TDs in two straight games. The Broncos' opponent, the Chargers, have given up four touchdowns to tight ends over their last six games, with the only two non-TD tilts coming from both Oakland contests (awkward, Jared Cook). I'm excited at the prospect of Denver realizing they can integrate Heuerman more into their passing attack and the matchup is at least neutral where I can lean into it.

Here’s a list of Trey Burton’s (9 vs. 5) targets by game thus far: 6, 4, 5, 4, 4, 11, 4, 3 and 4. Can you spot the outlier? In Burton’s favor is his red-zone usage (five TDs), but boy, is it hard to plant him inside the top-eight when he’s averaging four targets. I know, my Chicago offense model is odd but I think Gabriel, Miller and Cohen are going to be bigger. Anyway, this target sadness goes double for Uzomah (21 vs. 17), who has seen 10 targets in Cincinnati’s last three games and is reliant on finding the end zone. This doesn’t bode well when facing the Ravens defense in Baltimore, especially if A.J. Green is out and can’t help drag the Bengals to the red zone.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Travis Kelce	KC	TE	1	0
2	Zach Ertz	PHI	TE	2	0
3	Greg Olsen	CAR	TE	3	0
4	O.J. Howard	TB	TE	4	0
5	Jimmy Graham	GB	TE	6	1
6	Jared Cook	OAK	TE	11	5
7	Austin Hooper	ATL	TE	9	2
8	Jack Doyle	IND	TE	8	0
9	Trey Burton	CHI	TE	5	-4
10	Evan Engram	NYG	TE	7	-3
11	Jeff Heuerman	DEN	TE	16	5
12	Eric Ebron	IND	TE	10	-2
13	Jordan Reed	WAS	TE	13	0
14	Vance McDonald	PIT	TE	12	-2
15	Kyle Rudolph	MIN	TE	14	-1
16	Ricky Seals-Jones	ARI	TE	15	-1
17	Benjamin Watson	NO	TE	17	0
18	Nick Vannett	SEA	TE	19	1
19	Michael Roberts	DET	TE	31	12
20	C.J. Uzomah	CIN	TE	18	-2
21	Gerald Everett	LAR	TE	23	2
22	James O'Shaughnessy	JAC	TE	29	7
23	Geoff Swaim	DAL	TE	24	1
24	Jonnu Smith	TEN	TE	21	-3
25	Ed Dickson	SEA	TE	33	8
26	Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	22	-4
27	Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	28	1
28	Cameron Brate	TB	TE	20	-8
29	Vernon Davis	WAS	TE	27	-2
30	Tyler Higbee	LAR	TE	30	0
31	Jesse James	PIT	TE	26	-5
32	Antonio Gates	LAC	TE	34	2
33	Ryan Griffin	HOU	TE	36	3
34	Hayden Hurst	BAL	TE	25	-9
35	Virgil Green	LAC	TE	35	0
36	Jordan Thomas	HOU	TE	32	-4
37	Jermaine Gresham	ARI	TE	39	2
38	Rhett Ellison	NYG	TE	45	7
39	Matt LaCosse	DEN	TE	43	4
40	Dion Sims	CHI	TE	56	16
41	Mo Alie-Cox	IND	TE	38	-3
42	Levine Toilolo	DET	TE	42	0
43	Luke Willson	DET	TE	41	-2
44	Demetrius Harris	KC	TE	37	-7
45	Xavier Grimble	PIT	TE	60	15
46	Erik Swoope	IND	TE	64	18
47	Josh Hill	NO	TE	40	-7
48	Maxx Williams	BAL	TE	57	9
49	Tyler Kroft	CIN	TE	65	16
50	Blake Bell	JAC	TE	48	-2
51	Darrell Daniels	SEA	TE	62	11
52	Blake Jarwin	DAL	TE	52	0

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