With almost 10 percent of the season in tow, we've got more than enough statistical firepower to make wide, sweeping statements about every single player!
Well, alright, so we're not going to do that. Keep a level head, folks. It's still just April. Breathe. Now exhale sharply and read on about some April arms we need to remain aware of.
For our purposes, we’re going to use Yahoo ownership levels and try to cut things off around 35%. Data accurate as of April 18.Editor's note: Get 50% off any MLB Premium Pass. Draft guide, cheat sheets, 200 days of DFS access, and over 20 premium tools. Dominate your leagues all year long! Sign Up Now!
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets
Wily Peralta – (MIL, SP): 25% owned
I get it, you're sick of hearing about Wily. Well, too bad, because the guy is still 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP alongside a 51.2 percent ground-ball rate. It's understood that his .227 BABIP is going to give way toward .300, but there's no real reason why his arm can't give you a decent 3.60-3.70 ERA with decent Ks throughout 2017. Yes, Miller Park definitely favors hitters, but Peralta now owns a 2.86 ERA (3.74 FIP, 3.76 xFIP) and 7.32 K/9 over his last 78 2/3 innings -- aka when he was recalled in August last season. It's not world-beater stuff, but there are many rotations that could use his talent at the end of it.
Chase Anderson - (MIL, SP): 24% owned
Anderson was another second-half surger for Milwaukee in 2016, as he posted a 3.02 ERA in 65 2/3 frames after logging a dismal 5.44 mark in 86 innings prior to the Midsummer Classic. This came largely due to a drop in his HR/9 from a gaudy 1.88 to a still-iffy-but-workable 1.37 alongside a walk rate that was cut from 8.8 percent to 7.4 percent. Well, so far in 2017 he has allowed one lone long ball in 18 innings (0.50 HR/9) with 16 Ks against six walks (one intentional) which is good for a 7.1 percent clip. While he's sporting some good luck, he appears to have rolled over most of the strides he made in his improved second half. Don't be afraid to cut ties if he falters, but there's no reason he can't be useful in many leagues.
Bartolo Colon - (ATL, SP): 23% owned
Colon is fresh off of a one-hit, one-run gem against the Padres on April 16 where he struck out six in his second quality start of 2017. The 43-year-old control artist won’t be able to rely on a .167 BABIP all season long, but an ERA a little under 4.00 with a 1.23 WHIP when the dust settles is perfectly possible. He’ll face the Phillies next on April 21 -- a team he’s dominated with a 10-3 record and a 3.01 ERA over the past three seasons.
Robert Gsellman - (NYM, SP): 22% owned
There’s no dancing around the fact that Gsellman got beat up in his last start -- eight earned in 4 2/3 innings -- but it’ll take some serious talent to replicate that effort. His 4.31 FIP isn’t astounding, but his 3.36 xFIP and 3.44 SIERA are more forgiving as that laughably low 46.1 percent strand rate stabilizes (and the .367 BABIP should sink as well) and his ground-ball inducing ways get to truly play out. He’ll take on the Phillies at home on April 19 before a home date with the Braves next Tuesday.
Antonio Senzatela - (COL, SP): 21% owned
Senzatela has had a fiery start to 2017, going 2-0 with 14 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings (three starts) alongside a 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He’s had his rough innings, but he’s also shown an ability to not be rattled and bounce back. His 2.90 FIP, 3.56 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA support him as a solid pitcher, though certainly not an ace. The .241 BABIP will rise, but perhaps not by much when you look at his Minor League profile. The 22-year-old arm posted a .267 BABIP in 144 2/3 Single-A innings in 2014 before posting a .282 BABIP in 154 High-A innings in ’15 (.265 in his abbreviated 34 2/3-inning 2016 at Double-A) while also averaging a HR/9 of roughly 0.40 across all levels. Coors and the MLB change things, but we could have a fringe mixed-league asset here for his home matchup against the Giants on April 22.
Daniel Norris - (DET, SP): 16% owned
Norris' ownership has sunk a bit due to a couple of underwhelming starts to begin the season. Don't be fooled, his upside is just as strong as it was when we were all stirring about his electric September to end 2016. You know, when he struck out 38 hitters in 29 2/3 innings alongside a 2.73 ERA? Anyway, he's only rung up seven in 12 1/3 frames thus far and has been riding an ugly .237 BABIP to an early 2.19 ERA through his first two starts this year. The bottom line is that his strikeouts should rise -- his swinging-strike rate is nearly three percent lower than it was last season -- and his walk rate will surely fall from 13.5 percent toward his career 8.4 percent mark alongside a healthy amount of give on those balls in play. Overall, you should still roll the dice here for a road start against the Rays on April 20.
Patrick Corbin - (ARI, SP/RP): 7% owned
Corbin met the bare minimum requirements for a quality start against the Dodgers his last time out, allowing three earned runs in six innings despite a 2.00 WHIP and only three whiffs. This came after six shutout frames against the Indians, however, so he’s done well enough lately to warrant consideration in plus matchups. Well, he just so happens to be facing the Padres in San Diego on April 20 next, so there you have it.
Alex Wood - (LAD, SP): 4% owned
Wood should replace Rich Hill in LA’s rotation after turning in 3 1/3 perfect innings in relief on April 15 against the D-backs. He struck out three and picked up the win there, with the work lining him up to take the vacant slot on April 22. While pitching at Chase Field is far from pitcher-friendly, Wood is simply too talented to ignore given the opportunity here. The southpaw boasts an arsenal that can strike out more than a batter per inning with plus control. Eventually, he’ll have to vie with Julio Urias if everyone else’s health holds, but we know how that can go.
Wade Miley - (BAL, SP): 2% owned
Miley has had two very different starts to open 2017. The first saw him allow one hit over five scoreless innings, but he walked seven (and struck out five) in a no-decision against the Yankees. The 30-year-old southpaw’s next trip to the hill yielded eight strikeouts against no walks, aha! But also three earned runs despite allowing only five hits over six innings, as three of those hits preceded a fielding error that clumped up the action before a rogue solo homer in the fourth inning. With a date against the Reds in Cincy on April 20, he might just be a neat little streaming candidate.
Ariel Miranda - (SEA, SP): 2% owned
Miranda just dealt seven innings of scoreless innings against the Marlins at home on Monday, striking out five while scattering just four hits throughout the contest. After his first two starts really didn’t impress, this one leaves a mark. Some may look at the 3.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP from his rookie showing last season (58 innings, 10 starts) and get excited, but a 4.77 SIERA loomed behind that thanks to a .222 BABIP. He has low-contact skills but has also allowed far too many homers in the bigs -- 15 in only 75 2/3 innings. So that’s the bigger picture, but in the short term, we can get behind him thanks to a dream-stream matchup at Oakland on April 22.
German Marquez - (COL, SP): 0% owned
Who doesn't love seeing a fresh zero-owned guy, eh? The Rockies are currently shopping throughout their system for an arm to fill in for the injured Jon Gray, and it appears as though Marquez is the current front runner thanks to a recent seven-strikeout effort in 3 1/3 scoreless innings at Triple-A. Jeff Hoffman and Harrison Musgrave are also in the mix, but neither has looked good recently -- certainly not as good as Marquez did on April 15. He may not be stretched out enough to go very deep, but if you're scraping by and want some Mile-High love in the form of a young strikeout-per-inning type of arm then you might have something here.