RADIO
The pitcher landscape is honestly not all that inspiring save for some guys lingering around due to market inefficiencies. You'll find three Rockies here, and honestly, Jeff Hoffman could've made four but those in redraft leagues likely can't deal with stashing him while Colorado shuttles him back and forth between the Majors and Minors.
Here are the bottom-five teams in wOBA over the last 14 days: Pirates (.272), Padres (.282), Giants (.297), Phillies (.298) and Mariners (.300). Happy streaming, y'all.
For our purposes, we’re going to use Yahoo ownership levels and try to cut things off around 35%.
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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets
Nate Karns - (KC, SP/RP): 26% owned
Karns is unlikely to make his next start according to Royals manager Ned Yost after the righty was removed from his last start after five (strong) innings thanks to some fluid buildup in his right elbow. It’s interesting that he’s avoiding the 10-day DL for now considering one can usually just miss one start that way, but that may be coming shortly. Still, if you’re in one of the 9% of leagues that have seen him get dropped in the last day then it’s not the worst gamble to pick him up considering he’s been one of the best pitchers over the last month.
Update 5/25: Karns did in fact hit the DL after this column was written.
Junior Guerra - (MIL, SP): 22% owned
Guerra is slated to make his return on Friday against the D-backs at home, so those in deeper 12-team formats may want to perk up. His 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP from last season are almost certain to never return, but he still had a 3.71 FIP behind that action and may just prove himself as a sabermetric-outperformer in 2017. Furthermore, it's always easier to rely on a pitcher returning from a non-arm injury, so Guerra's calf shouldn't affect his mechanics. While starting him out of the gate against a strong Arizona team isn't recommended, he should definitely be monitored.
Tyler Anderson - (COL, SP): 18% owned
Anderson was awful in April. I’m sure you already know that, but it bears repeating. But if we’re trumpeting that twice, then we’ve also got to throw a little parade for his last three starts in which he’s struck out a combined 25 batters over just 17 2/3 innings with improved walk and ground-ball rates. His control and ability to induce grounders led to great success as a rookie (3.54 ERA, 7.79 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) and he seems to have recaptured that form here. It also doesn’t hurt that he gets to face the Phillies in the city of brotherly love on May 25 in his next start.
German Marquez - (COL, SP): 15% owned
Marquez now has three straight wins and a 2.03 ERA with 28 K's in 31 innings over his last five starts after the 22-year-old allowed just one earned over six strong innings against Philadelphia on Tuesday. He owns a robust 3.26 FIP behind the overall 3.86 ERA and is showing incredible command and confidence out there on the hill. This new wave of Colorado pitchers are exciting, with Marquez perhaps shining the brightest despite his having the lowest ownership rate. Get him and his superior strikeouts and healthy 45.4 percent ground-ball rate before it’s too late.
Kyle Freeland - (COL, SP): 27% owned
Freeland missed notching his sixth consecutive quality start by one out on May 21 against the Reds, though he’s allowed three runs in each of his last three outings versus just two combined earned runs in his previous three. While his 3.31 ERA is still pretty, his 1.34 WHIP and 32 K’s in 51 2/3 innings are more indicative of his modest fantasy ceiling. That being said, these young Colorado arms require as much context as necessary in this crazy day and age where they’re actually good.
Matt Garza - (MIL, SP): 22% owned
Garza disposed of the Padres with six solid innings of one-run ball on May 17, just as we expected. Though he didn’t factor into the decision, the 33-year-old has now posted four straight quality starts against four relatively easy opponents (ATL, @PIT, NYM, @SD). He’ll toe the rubber against Toronto next in a May 24 start at home, and while a blow-up wouldn’t be very surprising, he’s starting to paint the picture of reliability in 2017.
Update 5/25: Garza did in fact get torched, as suspected could happen.
Brad Peacock - (HOU, SP/RP): 17% owned
I can finally write about Peacock since he made a start! He’s been riding an electric slide(r) to outstanding results in ’17, with his most recent appearance yielding eight K’s in 4 1/3 scoreless innings on May 22 against the Tigers. He may not get another turn in the rotation, but it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Mike Fiers or Joe Musgrove step aside to allow Houston to see if Peacock can sustain this success as a true starter. Either that, or they just keep him in their Monstars-level bullpen.
JC Ramirez - (LAA, SP/RP): 23% owned
Ramirez’s 3.81 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 44 K’s through 54 1/3 innings are pretty solid, but a little disingenuous in the big picture. While he’s done well to go at least 6 2/3 innings in each of his last three outings, he’s only struck out 11 over his last 20 2/3 innings thanks to some improved efficiency. The bad news is that over that same span he’s allowed five homers after surrendering just three long balls in his first eight starts. Yeah, that’s not ideal. You’re playing with some fire here considering he faces Giancarlo Stanton and the Marlins next on May 27, but he’s worth remembering.
Ariel Miranda (SEA, SP): 10% owned
Miranda will have a tough assignment against the Nationals on May 25, but the fact that he delivered against the White Sox with 9 K’s in seven innings of one-run ball and now has 47 K’s in 48 1/3 innings is worth mentioning. Hopefully, he can break this pattern of logging two strong starts before throwing in a clunker here. If we play the “make a guy look good” game and remove that eight-run blemish against Philly on May 9, then the 28-year-old’s ERA over his last six starts turns out to be 2.36. Look, we’re not selling him as consistent or “set-it-and-forget-it” reliable, but there’s some real talent here.
Chad Kuhl - (PIT, SP): 3% owned
Kuhl has a cool 3.78 FIP underneath his 5.85 ERA, though his 1.60 WHIP and 4.75 SIERA are less forgiving on the whole. While the 24-year-old is getting hit harder (4.8 percent drop in soft-contact rate) and showing worse control (6.6 percent walk rate in 2016, currently 9.4 percent), he’s at least upped his whiffs by 2.6 percent and is coming off of a strong one-hit outing against the Phillies. He’s definitely more of a matchup guy (as is the case in these deep waters), but a home start against the Mets on May 26 should still be a plus one despite Jhoulys Chacin’s best efforts to inflate the Metropolitans’ stats on Tuesday night.
Jarred Cosart - (SD, SP): 1% owned
As we just stated, Cosart’s teammate Orange Jhoulys was just torched by the Mets on Tuesday night so perhaps you won’t be all gung-ho about streaming Cosart against them on May 24. I can’t blame you, but I like including a one-percenter as well. This isn’t me saying the soon-to-be 27-year-old is good, but he’s also allowed just two earned runs over three starts (12 2/3 innings as he gets stretched out) against three strong offenses (@COL, ARI, MIL). While the K’s will be minimal, he’s facing Robert Gsellman -- he of the 7.27 ERA as a starter in 2017 -- so you could do a lot worse.
That said, Gsellman himself is just 7% owned and gets to faced the aforementioned struggling Padres offense. Perhaps a nice two-inning bullpen appearance where he didn't give up any runs was enough to reset his confidence? I'd be game for that stream if you'd like.
I can’t really endorse starting Sam Gaviglio (0% owned) against the Nationals in his second career start on May 24, but hey, he tossed five innings of scoreless ball against the White Sox in his first MLB start so I guess it wouldn’t be absurd to see him succeed.
More Waiver Wire Pickups and Adds
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