Updated May Rankings and Tiers: Outfield (OF)

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The comedian Lewis Black has a fantastic bit about the dumbest thing he’s ever heard in his life. After relaying the thing in question, he cautions the audience, “Don’t think about that sentence for more than three minutes, or blood will shoot out your nose.” This is more or less how it felt trying to make heads or tails of 2017’s weird and wild first month and produce updated rankings. It’s why, unlike my esteemed colleague Nick Mariano, I went only 300 players deep as opposed to 500. Had I pressed on, it might have broken my brain.

All of which is to say, if you disagree strongly with any particular ranking, know that there’s a decent chance you could talk me into adjusting mine. The sheer number of injuries and surprise performances (in both directions) made putting this update together a stiff challenge. Nick finished up the infield with a look at shortstop yesterday, so today we'll be talking outfielders.

You can find our full, updated rankings here. Note that they’re based on a standard 12-teamer, so you should make adjustment based on your specific league settings. Tiers, auction values, prospects, news and more. It's all free.

Editor's note: Get a free one-week MLB Premium Pass including our famous Lineup Optimizer/Generator, Premium Matchup Ratings, DFS Lineups, Cheat Sheets, and 10 other tools. Sign Up Now!

 

2017 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfield (May Updates)

Ranking Tier Player Position Kyle Nick Composite
1 1 Mike Trout OF 1 1 1
2 1 Bryce Harper OF 4 2 3
3 1 Kris Bryant 3B/OF 2 7 4.5
4 2 Mookie Betts OF 6 3 4.5
5 2 Trea Turner 2B/OF 14 9 11.5
6 2 A.J. Pollock OF 24 11 17.5
7 2 Charlie Blackmon OF 27 18 22.5
8 2 Nelson Cruz OF 26 21 23.5
9 2 Ryan Braun OF 22 28 25
10 2 George Springer OF 33 25 29
11 2 Yoenis Cespedes OF 30 31 30.5
12 3 Giancarlo Stanton OF 25 39 32
13 3 J.D. Martinez OF 29 37 33
14 3 Carlos Gonzalez OF 39 41 40
15 3 Khris Davis OF 40 44 42
16 3 Christian Yelich OF 43 45 44
17 3 Justin Upton OF 53 64 58.5
18 3 Kyle Schwarber C/OF 42 77 59.5
19 3 Aaron Judge OF 70 54 62
20 3 Jose Ramirez 3B/OF 80 46 63
21 3 Matt Kemp OF 83 50 66.5
22 4 Ian Desmond OF 88 51 69.5
23 4 Gregory Polanco OF 73 78 75.5
24 4 Adam Jones OF 82 84 83
25 4 Andrew McCutchen OF 68 119 93.5
26 4 Marcell Ozuna OF 76 112 94
27 4 Stephen Piscotty OF 91 104 97.5
28 4 Odubel Herrera OF 78 118 98
29 4 Michael Brantley OF 136 73 104.5
30 5 Billy Hamilton OF 109 114 111.5
31 5 Andrew Benintendi OF 132 103 117.5
32 5 Mark Trumbo OF 151 90 120.5
33 5 Lorenzo Cain OF 119 126 122.5
34 5 Chris Owings SS/OF 79 168 123.5
35 5 David Dahl OF 111 156 133.5
36 5 Adam Duvall OF 140 129 134.5
37 5 Joc Pederson OF 112 166 139
38 5 Ben Zobrist 2B/OF 138 143 140.5
39 5 Jackie Bradley OF 115 180 147.5
40 5 Matt Holliday 1B/OF 173 124 148.5
41 5 Jose Bautista OF 105 198 151.5
42 5 Domingo Santana OF 160 146 153
43 6 David Peralta OF 135 172 153.5
44 6 Nomar Mazara OF 152 164 158
45 6 Dexter Fowler OF 133 192 162.5
46 6 Kole Calhoun OF 130 195 162.5
47 6 Jay Bruce OF 194 137 165.5
48 6 Carlos Beltran OF 153 194 173.5
49 6 Yasmany Tomas OF 205 147 176
50 6 Corey Dickerson OF 187 167 177
51 6 Michael Conforto OF 155 202 178.5
52 6 Mitch Haniger OF 217 142 179.5
53 6 Kevin Kiermaier OF 218 158 188
54 6 Carlos Gomez OF 199 187 193
55 7 Hunter Pence OF 179 223 201
56 7 Randal Grichuk OF 197 211 204
57 7 Ender Inciarte OF 189 229 209
58 7 Steven Souza OF 167 279 223
59 7 Scott Schebler OF 215 235 225
60 7 Jose Peraza SS/OF 202 258 230
61 7 Melky Cabrera OF 227 239 233
62 7 Keon Broxton OF 228 248 238
63 7 Jason Heyward OF 238 242 240
64 7 Brandon Drury 3B/OF 242 238 240
65 7 Rajai Davis OF 258 224 241
66 7 Hunter Renfroe OF 254 241 247.5
67 7 Brett Gardner OF 255 244 249.5
68 7 Manuel Margot OF 175 325 250
69 8 Jayson Werth OF 213 288 250.5
70 8 Max Kepler OF 225 280 252.5
71 8 Starling Marte OF 177 334 255.5
72 8 Shin-Soo Choo OF 280 234 257
73 8 Kevin Pillar OF #N/A 261 261
74 8 Jacoby Ellsbury OF 240 290 265
75 8 Joshua Bell 1B/OF 266 #N/A 266
76 8 Byron Buxton OF 300 233 266.5
77 8 Yasiel Puig OF 239 311 275
78 8 Aaron Altherr OF 253 308 280.5
79 8 Curtis Granderson OF 229 337 283
80 8 Brandon Moss OF 292 291 291.5
81 8 Gerardo Parra OF 293 295 294
82 8 Jarrod Dyson OF 281 314 297.5
83 8 Avisail Garcia OF #N/A 301 301
84 8 Robbie Grossman OF #N/A 309 309
85 8 Hernan Perez 3B/OF 243 378 310.5
86 9 Josh Reddick OF 278 349 313.5
87 9 Jorge Soler OF #N/A 335 335
88 9 Alex Gordon OF 277 401 339
89 9 Nick Markakis OF #N/A 339 339
90 9 Cameron Maybin OF #N/A 366 366
91 9 Steve Pearce 1B/2B/OF #N/A 371 371
92 9 Danny Valencia 1B/3B/OF #N/A 374 374
93 9 Denard Span OF #N/A 377 377
94 9 Michael Saunders OF #N/A 385 385
95 9 Seth Smith OF #N/A 387 387
96 9 Andrew Toles OF #N/A 388 388
97 9 Delino DeShields OF #N/A 389 389
98 9 Travis Jankowski OF #N/A 390 390
99 9 Lonnie Chisenhall OF #N/A 392 392
100 9 Enrique Hernandez OF #N/A 395 395
101 9 Jon Jay OF #N/A 396 396
102 9 Ben Revere OF #N/A 408 408
103 9 Leonys Martin OF #N/A 412 412
104 9 Tyler Naquin OF #N/A 413 413
105 10 Roman Quinn OF #N/A 416 416
106 10 Mallex Smith OF #N/A 417 417
107 10 Alex Dickerson OF #N/A 423 423
108 10 Brett Eibner OF #N/A 424 424
109 10 Trayce Thompson OF #N/A 428 428
110 10 Colby Rasmus OF #N/A 432 432
111 10 Brandon Nimmo OF #N/A 434 434
112 10 Brandon Guyer OF #N/A 435 435
113 10 Melvin Upton Jr. OF #N/A 437 437
114 10 Hyun-soo Kim OF #N/A 446 446
115 10 Jefry Marte 1B/OF #N/A 449 449
116 10 Jeremy Hazelbaker OF #N/A 453 453
117 10 Abraham Almonte OF #N/A 454 454
118 11 Chris Young OF #N/A 457 457
119 11 Franklin Gutierrez OF #N/A 460 460
120 11 Andre Ethier OF #N/A 464 464
121 11 Ezequiel Carrera OF #N/A 470 470
122 11 Eddie Rosario OF #N/A 486 486
123 11 Ryan Rua OF #N/A 489 489
124 11 Jabari Blash OF #N/A 490 490
125 11 Albert Almora OF #N/A 500 500

 

Outfield Rankings Analysis: May

There's been some minor reshuffling in the top three tiers, but for the most part, it's the same players involved. The notable exception, of course, is Aaron Judge. The rookie has slowed down a bit recently with just one home run in his last eight games, but he still leads MLB with 14 bombs. It's worth noting that even with that (relative) drought, his HR/FB% remains close to 50 percent. Given that only one player has ever finished a season with a HR/FB% above 35 percent, it's fair to expect a comedown. Additionally, Judge's elevated strikeout rate will make it tough for him to continue hitting for a high average. Still, he's been much more impressive than any of us expected in 2017.

Moving into the middle tiers, there are some notable risers. Marcell Ozuna has looked more like the elite hitter from the first half of last season than the middling bat of the second half, lending credence to the idea that injury derailed his breakout campaign. Speaking of injury rebounds, Michael Brantley appears to be fully recovered from the shoulder problems that ruined his 2016. Chris Owings is finally cashing in on the promise he showed before his own shoulder issues a couple of years ago, offering opportunistic fantasy owners a blend of power and speed with the added bonus of shortstop eligibility. Jay Bruce is proving he still has something left in the tank, though he'll need to avoid a third straight second-half collapse. Teammate Michael Conforto has taken advantage of the Mets' ever-lengthening list of players on the disabled list and made himself impossible to bench.

The most pronounced drop - outside of the suspended Starling Marte -  belongs to Jose Bautista, who fell from 20th to outside the top 40 outfielders thanks to Nick's pessimistic ranking. The veteran has smacked four homers in May, including three in the past week. Reports of his demise may have been greatly exaggerated. Jackie Bradley Jr. has always been a streaky hitter, and he's been ice-cold to start 2017. In hindsight, my preseason valuation was overly optimistic...though it doesn't look nearly as awful as my bold prediction that Byron Buxton would put up a 20/40 season. There's three-quarters of the season left to play, but that one's already DOA. Can't win 'em all.

A few quick hits to close things out:

  • Matt Holliday validated my faith in a rebound, and I failed to give him as much of a bump in this update as I should have. Go ahead and swap him with Bradley in my rankings.
  • Mark Trumbo has been even worse than I expected, but he's due for some positive regression. There's no way he ends the season with single-digit HR/FB%.
  • Aaron Altherr deserves a lot more love than he got here, and I regret not pushing him harder as a sleeper this offseason.
  • Kevin Pillar was my most glaring omission.

 

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