RADIO
Fantasy owners will make this mistake year after year with players. When it comes time for your draft or auction, you need to stop paying for names. Far too often a fantasy owner will pay for the name on the back of a jersey instead of the stats on the scoresheet. The problem with some players don't come with drafting them, but more of taking them too high. This can be typical of a player who has had one big year or has talent that jumps out at you but doesn’t seem to put it all together.
One player I have written about previously is Sammy Watkins and he would fit this bill. Owners continue to pay the price of a WR1 for Watkins when he has only once come close to providing those stats. It’s okay to have Watkins on your team, but only if you pay the price of a WR3. Making a mistake like this can be similar to spending a high pick on a player who is injured and misses all year. In this case though, it’s your fault and they sit on your bench all year, taunting you, laughing at you while they provide performances worthy of the waiver wire. Now add insult to injury and because you spent so much on the player, you can’t drop them because you just know the next game they will breakout and someone else will have picked him up.
For #TrendingNow this week, I’ll cover a couple of players trending in the wrong direction because their performance does not live up to the hype surrounding their name. It’s okay to own these players and by no means should you drop them. You should be tempering your expectations though and realizing they are not what some continue to expect.
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#TrendingUp
Marquise Goodwin (WR, SF)
Before we talk fantasy football, let’s talk real life. The scenario that played out for the Goodwin family prior to last Sunday's game is a nightmare for anyone. Marquise Goodwin was still able to dress and step on the field with his teammates, telling his story after the game had finished. We should all try to keep the perspective that football, and especially fantasy football, are just games. We need to remember that athletes are human beings. They are allowed to show emotion, make errors and be human, even if that is on Sunday.
The next time a football player puts up a dud for your team, stay away from Twitter. Do not mention them, complaining about how they screwed up your fantasy matchup or ruined your season. They could have much more important things to worry about. If Goodwin had decided not to share his story, we may not have heard about it for quite some time. Just because these guys make a ton of money and have more fame than any of us could imagine, doesn’t mean they aren’t allowed to be human beings.
With that being said, Goodwin was still able to haul in an 83-yard TD pass in the second quarter, to give a boost to owners who had him in the lineup Sunday. Injuries to Pierre Garcon and Trent Taylor mean Goodwin becomes the WR1 in San Francisco. He doesn’t provide the skills necessary to offer your team WR1 numbers, but he will help as a high WR3 with low WR2 upside. He’s a burner that can take the top off a defense and provide a big play or two per game. You’ll have to wait a week before putting Goodwin in your lineup though as they will head into the bye for Week 11.
I think this comes at a great time for Goodwin though. There is potential we will see Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 12, which could provide a big boost to those deep plays. CJ Beathard doesn’t have the arm strength of Garoppolo. Even though Beathard hit Goodwin with the deep ball this past week, Goodwin still ran more than 35 yards after the catch and had beaten the defender by a few yards. Garoppolo will have the ability to find an open Goodwin unlike Beathard, Hoyer or even Tarod Taylor in 2016. If Goodwin can have a successful end to 2017, he could set himself up for a bigger role in 2018 as he will have game reps with his future QB unlike Garcon or Taylor. If you are looking for depth or someone to be a WR3/Flex in the playoffs, Goodwin has a good chance to offer that.
Elijah McGuire (RB, NYJ)
If you read my articles, you would have noticed Matt Forte ended up on the wrong side of #TrendingNow last week. Well, let’s talk about another member of the Jets backfield now. Forte is now 31 years old and believe it or not, Bilal Powell is already 29 years old. The Jets have already shown they are committed to getting younger, faster and more athletic. Powell had an excellent end to 2016, but has done very little to prove that he is worth a look as the RB1 moving forward.
I expect McGuire to be the starting RB in New York as early as 2018, if not sometime this year. He hasn’t been great in limited action as he only averages 3.8 yards per carry, but what about the Jets has screamed great this year? They will have another year to build the line and possibly get the QB of the future. McGuire has out snapped Powell the last two weeks 56-48. That includes Week 9 when all three running backs were active and saw game time.
That is enough evidence to lead me to believe they want him to have more work. The Jets were a great story early this year winning three straight games after starting 0-2. Most didn’t figure the Jets would even win one game. Since then, they have lost four of five and it would make sense if they start giving some of the future pieces a chance to prove themselves. The schedule the rest of the way will feature some stiff defensive challenges that include Denver and New Orleans. If the Jets offense can at least keep the games close, McGuire should get the chance to see his snap count increase every week.
#TrendingDown
Dez Bryant (WR, DAL)
As I mentioned in the opening of the article, the name of the game this week is overrated player. When I think of overrated players, Dez Bryant is the face of that group. There isn’t a player I make more of an effort to stay away from then Bryant, regardless of the format. During a stretch from 2012-2014, Bryant averaged 91 catches for 1,311 yards and 13 touchdowns per season. During those seasons, he was ranked the WR4, WR7 and WR4 respectfully. If you want me to pay for WR1 numbers, then I will pay that price for those numbers.
You know what numbers I won’t pay for? 47 catches for 671 yards and six touchdowns. That is the average of all others seasons in Bryant’s career. In those years, Bryant ranked no higher than WR19 in PPR formats. When you look at trading for Bryant, you typically will need to pay a WR1 price tag to add him and I don’t know about you, but there are plenty other receivers I would be willing to add for that price. According to fantasydata.com, Bryant’s ADP this offseason was 21. Not only does that insert him into WR1 status, that inserts him into the second round overall. What other players could you take at that spot? Doug Baldwin (currently WR9), DeAndre Hopkins (WR1), TY Hilton (WR14) and Michael Crabtree (WR21).
In a year that we have seen season ending injuries to many top tier players, you could do just as much damage to your team by jumping to overdraft a guy like Bryant over these other players. Bryant is currently on pace to accumulate 849 yards on 74 catches for seven touchdowns in 2017. Those are not numbers I want from my WR1 or my second round pick. It’s time to start fading Bryant. Stop jumping to draft him, don’t overspend in your auction and don’t give any Bryant owner the satisfaction of knowing they just took you to the bank for WR1 return. I’m starting the petition to ban Bryant from WR1 conversations, do you want to sign?
Kelvin Benjamin (WR, BUF)
You either hate Kelvin Benjamin or you love Kelvin Benjamin. I don’t find many people who are in between. After the last minute trade that sent Benjamin from Carolina to Buffalo, it is still the same way. The only difference for me is that I have moved from love to hate. When you look at pure talent, I believe Sammy Watkins is better than Benjamin. Watkins had one successful season in Buffalo and it was just hopes and prayers every other year waiting for the breakout. Not only that, but now Buffalo has decided to go through a QB change and the Tyrod Taylor era is finished (presumably) and Nathan Peterman will now step in.
The good news for dynasty owners? If the Bills have bought into Peterman being the QB of the future, Benjamin will need this time to learn with him. Bad news for dynasty owners? If you were counting on Benjamin for help this year, I don’t foresee much value. I think Benjamin has the tools to be successful and offer tremendous fantasy value. He had 73 catches for 1,008 yards his rookie season. He had 63 catches for 941 a year after major knee surgery. I think that is his ceiling though and owners keep looking for Benjamin to offer low WR1, high WR2 numbers and I don’t see that in his new offense.
If you want to pay WR3 type return to add him, right now is a great time to buy low. For dynasty owners who are out of it and want to add some young talent, he could be a great addition for 2018. Pay for him to be your WR3 though and you won’t be disappointed. It can be tough to find a reliable receiver whose main tools are going and getting the ball in the end zone, and that is exactly what Benjamin offers.
