#TrendingNow - Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 10

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We are heading into Week 10 and owners can feel fantasy playoffs coming quick. It’s crunch time for those fighting to make the playoffs and for those who won’t, time to look towards 2018. Possibly an even more important date then the playoffs, is the trading deadline.

While I typically stick with dynasty related articles, I am going to include some win now information over the course of the next couple of weeks as owners navigate trade negotiations to find the missing piece for a championship this year or sell for next.

#TrendingNow will be all about who you should be adding or who you shouldn’t be depending on for the playoffs and how you should go about adding that player. If you are a buyer at the deadline, this article is for you.

Editor's note: Purchase any NFL Lineup Optimizer pass (including daily DFS cheat sheets), and you also get access to NBA and NHL Optimizers and DFS cheat sheets.

 

#TrendingUp

Adrian Peterson (RB, ARI)

Adrian Peterson was all washed up a few weeks back. He was in a committee with two other running backs and his snap count was dwindling week by week. After a trade to Arizona, Peterson was considered to be more depth or bye week fill in for fantasy owners until David Johnson returned from his broken wrist. Now we are entering Week 10 and Peterson is coming off a career high 37 carries in which he ran for 159 yards. You read that correctly, at 32 years young Peterson tailed a career high 37 carries against San Francisco last week.

Since joining the Cardinals, Carson Palmer has gone down with an injury and Bruce Arians commented that Johnson may not be back this season. The Cardinals are now committed to running the offense through Peterson for 2017. Peterson is not a long term option for fantasy owners, but we have seen enough injuries this year that owners on the fringe of making the playoffs will be looking for help. If you are one of these owners, buy into Peterson for the rest of the season. If you are buying at the deadline, one main thought is acquiring players who have good matchups during the fantasy playoffs.

Peterson will have some decent matchups come playoff time as he will be facing 10th (Titans), 16th (Redskins) and 28th (Giants) ranked rush defenses in average yards per game. Just to add a little more value to Peterson, he has seen eight targets over the last two weeks. Andre Ellington was supposed to benefit from targets in Johnson’s absence, but Peterson has seen just as much if not more.  If Peterson belongs to a team selling, you could look to add him for a second or third round pick and a young running back with potential upside like Matt Brieda or Joe Williams.

Lamar Miller (RB, HOU)

The injuries have hit fantasy owners hard this year as some big names have gone down for the season and left owners scrambling to replace them. One of the most shocking injuries had to be Deshaun Watson. While he was in the midst of a rookie of the year campaign for the ages, a torn ACL in practice quickly deflated those talks and fantasy owners who were dependent on Watson’s gaudy numbers. With all injuries though, it’s next man up and someone will need to lead this Texans offense. It won’t be Tom Savage or any other QB leading the offense, but Lamar Miller. If the Texans have any chance of keeping pace in the AFC South, their veteran running back will have to be the one leading the charge.

Miller seems to be a forgotten running back this year. When D'Onta Foreman was taken 89th overall in this year’s draft, many Miller owners were quick to add Foreman or move on from Miller. There had even been talk in the first few weeks of increasing Foreman’s workload and moving to more of a running back by committee that saw the Texans ride the hot hand. Foreman has seen some work totaling 244 yards on 61 carries so far, but it hasn’t been enough to unseat Miller. I get the feeling that dynasty owners are weary of Foreman lurking and the Watson injury, but neither of those things should worry you in 2017. Miller is currently sitting at RB10 in standard leagues which is probably shocking to some of you. He is putting up legit RB1 numbers right now and is the perfect target for those needing to add a RB before the playoffs.

In fantasy playoffs, Miller will be facing San Francisco, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh who rank 32nd, 27th and 14th respectfully against the run. Of all the players I would be targeting at the deadline, I have gotten the sense that Miller could cost the least. Now, that will change from league to league, but all of my conversations have led me to believe he could be had for picks and young RB talent. If you own a guy like Aaron Jones and need a more established back locked into a role, this could be a trade for you. Keep in the mind the dynasty implications though. The Texans may decide to incorporate Foreman more next year and Miller’s value goes out the window. Grab him now, use him for the playoffs and trade him this offseason after he comes off three huge games to end 2017. If your anything like me, play to win now and worry about adjusting later.

 

#TrendingDown

Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR)

Time for my favorite game!

Player A: 127 touches, 394 total yards and two total touchdowns

Player B: 118 touches, 589 total yards and three total touchdowns

Okay, so considering this section is supposed to be about Jonathan Stewart one player is a dead giveaway. Honestly though, do you want either one of these guys as an integral part of your fantasy team based on the stats above? One more piece of information. Player B is the RB11 in PPR formats. Player A is Stewart and player B is teammate Christian McCaffrey. After two critical fumbles last week, it appears Stewart’s workload is finally headed for a decline finally. Stewart has been awful this year. He’s averaging 2.9 yards per carry and can’t get in the end zone either.

After Stewart put the ball on the ground for his second fumble of the game Sunday, McCaffrey had 15 carries the rest of the game compared to seven for Stewart. What concerns me even more is that this was a close game. It was not a lopsided score that saw the Panthers running McCaffrey to get him work, they went with him while the game was on the line. Stewart won’t just disappear from game action, but his snap count is going to begin dwindling week by week. Let’s not forget the Panthers QB also eats into carries as well. Cam Newton had nine carries for 86 yards in the win over Atlanta. It looks like the curtains could be closing for Stewart so find your local McCaffrey owner, convince him he should have Stewart as well and then take whatever you can get.

Terrelle Pryor (WR, WSH)

If you are looking at average draft position, Terrelle Pryor has to be one of the biggest busts in 2017 when compared to his ADP. The hype surrounding Pryor this offseason had him as high as a WR1 in 2017. He was coming off a 1,000-yard season in Cleveland, was moving to an offense that lost Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson and had a better QB in Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball. It appeared to be a recipe for success all around. It was an up and down start to the season, which could be expected when a QB and WR try to build chemistry. In Week 4, Pryor had 3 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown, which seemed to be the breakout performance owners were waiting for.

Since that game? Pryor has seven catches on 13 targets for 54 yards. Not only that, but in Week 8 against Dallas, Pryor didn’t even make it onto the field for the first two drives. Jay Gruden has been vocal in recent weeks about Josh Doctson taking over as the WR1 in Washington, but nobody has done much of anything in that offense. Outside of that, Pryor was on a one-year deal. If he couldn’t get the money and years he wanted after his 2016 season, there is no way he is getting anything after this season. He will need to learn a new offense, create chemistry with a new QB and there is no telling who he may even sign with. In dynasty leagues, I am moving Pryor as quick as possible. You won’t get much now, but you really won’t get anything later. Pryor will go down as one of the biggest fantasy football busts in recent memory.

 

More 2017 Dynasty League Strategy