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In this article every week, we'll be reviewing some of the top college basketball games of the day to see how we can beat Vegas. Today's slate of games includes a heavy dose of SWAC and Atlantic Sun action as we enter the final week of February.
Conference play has been especially unforgiving to bettors this year. Today's focus is on smaller conference races where there may be big opportunities for profit.
Here are some of the top college basketball expert betting picks for Saturday, February 22. Let me know your thoughts, and follow me on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time.
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Florida State @ North Carolina State (NC State) - 4:00 pm
Coach Leonard Hamilton has long been one of the most underrated coaches in the nation, and this year's dominant Florida State Seminoles team is yet another example. The Seminoles have only dropped four games this year, and are teetering between the projected second and third seed lines by most bracketologists. One of the keys to the Seminoles' success this season is their depth, with 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game. Coach Hamilton's team secured key road wins over likely tournament teams such as Florida, Louisville, and Purdue, and have a strong chance to add NC State to that list.
The NC State Wolfpack were living on the bracket's bubble life support before their impressive dominance of the Duke Blue Devils on Wednesday. Senior guard Markell Johnson took over against Duke with 28 points, leading the Wolfpack beyond the arc with a five-of-eight performance beyond the arc. Expecting another dominant performance by the Wolfpack on the boards is unlikely based on their overall body of work.
Pick: Florida State -1
Lipscomb @ North Florida - 5:00 pm
This year's Lipscomb barely resembles the team that lost in the NIT finals last year to Texas. Garrison Matthews, Rob Marberry, Kenny Cooper, Nathan Moran, Eli Pepper, Matt Rose, and coach Casey Alexander departed in the offseason, leaving the Bison in a rebuilding mode. Coach Lennie Acuff was promoted from the ranks of Division II to lead the Bison and his offense has relied entirely on sophomore center Ahsan Asadullah, a well-regarded young player from Atlanta who is nearly averaging a double-double and whose production has improved significantly as the season has progressed.
The North Florida Ospreys recently dropped a crucial divisional game against Liberty that dropped them to 11-3 in Atlantic Sun Conference play. Having split the season series with Liberty, the secondary tiebreaker is the school's NET ranking which is the NCAA's relatively new tool to evaluate the strength of a team's wins and losses. Liberty has one of the strongest NET rankings among mid-majors at 57th, but North Florida sits over 100 spots behind at 164th, so the Ospreys may have lost their opportunity to host the Atlantic Sun conference tournament on their home court.
Pick: Lipscomb +9
Stetson @ Liberty - 5:00 pm
Coach Donnie Jones inherited a team that won 3 games in the 2018-2019 season against one of the weakest schedules in the nation. The incredible turnaround has been jumpstarted by a lockdown defense that ranks 59th in the country allowing 65 points per game. The Hatters start three freshmen and their leading scorers are freshman guard Rob Perry and his classmate Mahamadou Diawara, who is converting over 60% of his shots from the field. Stetson's nine conference wins marks their highest mark since the 2012-2013 season. With two strong defenses, a slugfest that resembles the January 25th game between these teams that Liberty won 48-43 is certainly not out of the question.
Coach Ritchie McKay's Liberty Flames are senior-laden, have an NCAA Tournament win under their belt from last year, and have a suffocating defense that ranks narrowly behind Virginia for least points allowed per game. The Flames maximize the majority of their offensive possessions, ranking 13th by offensive efficiency metrics, making the limited possessions that they allow their opponent even more meaningful. While Liberty is the class of the conference, a quick review of their schedule reveals that they have only played one power conference team which resulted in a narrow win over Vanderbilt from the Southeastern Conference cellar. Liberty has been favored by double digits eight times in conference play but has failed to cover the spread in seven of these games.
Pick: Stetson +16.5
Texas Southern @ Mississippi Valley State - 5:00 pm
Texas Southern has dominated the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) for the better part of the last decade, with four NCAA Tournament appearances since 2014. Coach Johnny Jones, who took previous stops as the head coach at Memphis, North Texas and LSU, has the Tigers in position for a good seed in the SWAC Tournament with a 9-3 record and only Prairie View A&M standing in the way of home-court advantage. The Tigers have excellent restraint on defense, committing the least fouls and allowing the least free throws in SWAC play, and senior point guard Tyrik Armstrong is a ball of energy that can put up points in a hurry.
Former NBA role player Lindsey Hunter, who won NBA Championships as a member of both the Lakers and Pistons, is in the midst of a miserable first season leading the Delta Devils. Mississippi Valley State sports only a 2-23 record against a schedule that Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 333rd most difficult schedule out of 353 Division I teams. The defense has been non-existent this year, as the Delta Devils allowed 143 points to Utah in a 94-point loss, and have allowed under 70 points only twice all season. With inefficient scorers like senior guard Michael Green and freshman guard - and the coach's son - Caleb Hunter, leading the way, the Delta Devils will continue to be subject to blowouts in what has become a season to forget for Coach Hunter.
Pick: Texas Southern -14
Alcorn State @ Alabama A&M - 6:30 pm
The Alcorn State Braves sit in a strong position at 8-5 in SWAC play. However, the Braves' midseason 5-game win streak that boosted that record feels like an eon ago. Coach Montez Robinson's team barely eked out an overtime win over Mississippi Valley State followed by a narrow regulation win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, two teams that have a combined 4 wins in SWAC play.
Alabama A&M has been led by a trio of freshmen guards - Cameron Alford, Garett Hicks, and Cameron Tucker. Tonight in Huntsville, Alabama, the Alabama A&M Bulldogs host their annual Greek night which will be sure to boost student attendance. The school will be handing out free t-shirts to encourage the "white-out" event for a winnable game in a season that does not have many winnable games on the schedule. Considering our record is 1-0 as
Pick: Alabama A&M -1
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
