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In this article every week, we'll be reviewing some of the top college basketball games of the day to see how we can beat Vegas. Today's slate of games includes a couple of West Coast Conference showdowns, the lowest over/under of the season for two teams, and a fading Pac-12 team against a surging Pac-12 team.
This past Wednesday's record was 2-2-1, with our first push of the season coming in Memphis' 2-point win over Central Florida. This week, we turn the calendar into February as teams are working towards putting the finishing touches on their resume with the hope of sneaking into the tournament and making a run towards the title.
Here are some of the top college basketball expert betting picks for Saturday, February 1. Let me know your thoughts, and follow me on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time.
Season record to date: 20-16-1 (+2.2 units)
Gonzaga @ San Francisco - 4:00 pm
Coach Mark Few has built an absolute juggernaut in Spokane. It is not often that you will see a spread this low for the Zags, who have been favored in all but one game this season and have seen spreads under 11 points only three times. The one recent concern for the Zags is that forward Killian Tillie is injured and will be out indefinitely. This absence though will mean more playing time for Filip Petrusev, the young Serbian center who has put up incredible per-minute statistics and is a sure-fire future NBA player.
The San Francisco Dons had a notable season last season but were expected to take a step back with the losses of Coach Kyle Smith and star guard Frankie Ferrari. New Coach Todd Golden has helped the Dons continue their success this year, maintaining their status as a mid-tier West Coast Conference team. The Dons are hoping to finish the season strong, and do have an upset win over BYU on their resume, but will prove to be no match for an experienced and well-coach Gonzaga team.
Pick: Gonzaga -11
Oregon @ Stanford - 6:00 pm
Payton Pritchard has been phenomenal for Coach Dana Altman's Ducks this year. Pritchard was the star of the show for last year's Sweet 16 team, but this year's team is even better with the additions of two highly heralded freshmen in CJ Walker and N'Faly Dante. The biggest addition to the Ducks roster since last year has been guard Chris Duarte, the nation's top-ranked junior college transfer a year ago, who is contributing across the board with strong defensive metrics and double-digit scoring. Aside from an embarrassing loss to middling Washington State, the team's other three losses are to powerhouse Gonzaga, a strong Colorado team, and UNC before losing Cole Anthony. Oregon is a team to keep an eye on, as they have the talent of a second-weekend team in the NCAA tournament.
Stanford has been a great story this season, as the once-storied program has finally shown signs of life, starting the year 15-2. Coach Jerod Haase's team has fallen down to earth on a recent three-game conference losing streak. Freshman guard Tyrell Terry has become a star for the team from the minute he stepped on campus, and pairs well with junior German forward Oscar da Silva, a biology major, and the team's highest scorer. The Cardinal beefed up their record with more than their fair share of cupcake games and the freefall will likely continue for this young team.
Pick: Oregon -1.5
Florida Gulf Coast @ Liberty - 7:00 pm
The days of "Dunk City" are two coaches and nearly a decade removed from Florida Gulf Coast University basketball lore. Coach Michael Fly does not play at the same tempo as his predecessors Joe Dooley and Andy Enfield, and the Eagles are averaging only 61.9 ppg. This team underwent a significant roster overhaul over the summer and has many freshmen contributing across the board. Junior Justus Rainwater, a transfer center from Cochise Junior College, has one of the best names in college basketball and is the primary scoring option for the Eagles on the interior. This posted total is the lowest total of the year for the Eagles.
Coach Ritchie McKay's Liberty Flames have played with consistency and have been one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Flames' 51.2 ppg allowed is the 2nd best in the nation, and their 67.5 ppg on offense is a measly 316th. Liberty games this year have been slugfest after slugfest, with minimal offensive outbursts. Despite this, seeing a total so low should be alarming. This will also be the lowest total posted for Liberty.
Pick: Over 113.5
Saint Mary's @ Brigham Young (BYU) - 10:00 pm
Coach Randy Bennett is in his 19th season at the helm of the Saint Mary's Gaels, one of three Catholic schools in the San Francisco bay area. The Gaels have one of their strongest teams in recent memory. The only blemishes on the resume is an inexcusable early-season loss to Winthrop that is far and away in the rearview mirror. With two games still to play against the indestructible Gonzaga Bulldogs, this game may be the most realistic and final opportunity for Saint Mary's to stake its claim for an at-large bid with a win over a tournament-caliber team. Senior guard Jordan Ford is the engine that runs this team, scoring 21.ppg in a staggering 37 minutes per game. Secondary scoring falls to former South Florida big man Malik Fitts, and four-year contributor guard Tanner Krebs. The Gaels are well-coached, play with strong fundamentals, and should not be razzled by the tenacious atmosphere in Provo.
The 2019-2020 season was expected to be one of transition after longtime coach Dave Rose retired and guard Nick Emery, whose brother Jackson starred alongside Jimmer Fredette, decided to hang up his sneakers for good in October. New head coach Mark Pope, who had some success at Utah Valley prior to leading the Cougars in Provo, has this team running on all cylinders and looking like a legitimate tournament team. Star forward Yoeli Childs was suspended for the first nine games of the season by NCAA for incorrectly filing paperwork to declare for the NBA draft last season, but is back and is scoring 21.2 ppg on over 60% shooting from the field. The team will play four guards surrounding Childs at times, led by Utah Valley graduate transfer Jake Toolson and Arizona transfer Alex Barcello. This will be a must-watch showdown between two dangerous teams that both have the potential to make long runs in March.
Pick: Saint Mary's +6
New Orleans @ Southeastern Louisiana - 5:00 pm
Southeastern Louisiana should be favored over about 5 teams in college basketball, even at home. While New Orleans is far from a perfect team and has its share of warts, it is a significantly more polished team at this stage, much better coached, and has better recruits. Southeastern Louisiana is a bottom-10 team in the nation, and this will be only the second instance that they have been favored this year.
Pick: New Orleans +2.5
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
