The top players on the PGA Tour are once again set to begin their new year in Hawaii as they descend upon the Plantation Course at Kapalua for the 2025 The Sentry.
With the exception of a couple of big names, we still have a tournament field with an abundance of talent and a golf course that we have seen dismantled by pros in recent years. Despite the insanely low scoring, this event has provided us win tons of drama and an eclectic group of past winners.
As always, my primary goal with this article is to give you a place to start your research and preparation for the upcoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field-to-project proper course fits and looked heavily into how players' incoming form has been in the categories that matter the most here. Without further ado, Here are my top 10 Power Rankings for the 2024 The Sentry!
No. 10 - Adam Scott
- Trending Form: 5 Top-10 finishes in his last 9 worldwide starts, including T3 in his most recent tournament for the DP World Tour Championship mid-November.
- Ranks 4th in the field in Driving Distance.
- Ranks 2nd in the field in SG: Around the Green over his last 36 rounds played.
No. 9 - Sam Burns
- Top 5 Putter in the field in a birdie fest.
- Ranks #1 in Proximity to the hole from 200+ yards in the field over the last six months. Players will hit more shots at the Plantation Course from this range than the PGA Tour average.
- Excellent short game, particularly on Bermudagrass and possesses the aggressive playing style that is rewarded at these low-scoring tournaments.
No. 8 - Sahith Theegala
- Theegala often plays well repeatedly at events with past success. 33rd in his first appearance at The Sentry which he followed up with a 2nd place result last season in 2024.
- Significant improvement recently in his wedge game. Ranks 4th in strokes gained approach inside of 140 yards.
- Creativity and shot-making ability around the greens are a plus this week with massive greens that feature substantial undulation.
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— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) December 14, 2024
No. 7 - Hideki Matsuyama
- Matsuyama always seems to start the season off strong during the Hawaii/California swing. Won in Hawaii in 2022 and California in 2024.
- Still possesses elite ballstriking from inside 175 yards and has terrific chipping/recovery ability.
- Ranks #1 in scrambling from "short-grass" in the field over the last six months.
No. 6 - Sungjae Im
- Sungjae Im improves his baseline performance on courses with easy scoring conditions. He set the PGA Tour record for birdies in a tournament at this course.
- Great short game coupled with vastly improved iron play to end his 2024 season.
- Exceptional course history: Last 4 Years - T5, T13, T8, T5
No. 5 - Ludvig Aberg
- Returned from injury at the RSM Classic, and finished T17. Aberg also competed in the Hero World Challenge and finished in 6th place.
- Unholstered power and ability OTT are diminished at this venue due to wide fairways and channels that usher tee shots to the same resting area.
- Disappointing 47th place finish last season at The Sentry, will need to improve his proximity with wedges in 2025 to compete for the win here.
Was taking a look at Ludvig's last few R4 performances on my show last night 🔥🤓 using my new research tool 🤓🔥 and the RSM was his first time in 9 Sundays where he gained more than a stroke on the field.
Can a man get 9 more subscribers to have "Back 9 Bets" at 500 subs… pic.twitter.com/4BjfuqabUG
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) December 30, 2024
No. 4 - Patrick Cantlay
- Game is trending in the right direction. Eigth consecutive Top-25 finishes and he's gained strokes OTT in each start.
- Awesome hands around the greens and has the ability to get red-hot with the putter. Clutch-gene!
- Five consecutive appearances at The Sentry with T16 or better results. 4th place in 2022 and 2020. Resists standard Hawaii pampering.
No. 3 - Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa has been on the brink of victory at The Sentry on multiple occasions but has failed to cross the finish line thus far. He essentially folded his hand on the back nine in 2023 due to chunking pedestrian shots around the green. That said, nobody has consistently dismantled Kapalua quite like Morikawa.
His worst result in his last 5 tournaments at The Sentry is 7th place. Morikawa ranks #1 in strokes gained total at the Plantation Course over that time. He's one of the favorites for good reason, but glaring deficiencies with his putting and short game at times have held him back in recent years. From 2022-2024, Morikawa has one win. He's too talented to continue that drought much longer.
No. 2 - Justin Thomas
2024 was a grind for Justin Thomas, but he has plenty of reason to be optimistic for 2025. The PGA Championship returns to Quail Hollow for one, but he's back to crushing the field with his ability to gain strokes on Approach which was his signature attribute when playing his best. Thomas also has two wins at the Sentry in his career so the vibes are immaculate in Hawaii.
What I am most intrigued by is his newly curated speed. I think his offseason speed training is going to pay major dividends moving forward for Thomas. He hit a couple of drives over 370 yards at the Hero World Challenge and finished 1st that week in Driving Distance. He is going to be sending drives over 400 regularly in Hawaii. If he can putt well enough, he can win this tournament for the third time.
How Justin Thomas ranked off the tee this week with the longer 46” driver (of 20 players):
SG: Off the Tee: 1st (+6.10)
Driving Distance: 1st (319.1)
% of Drives >300 yards: 1st (79%)
Total Driving: 2nd
Driving Accuracy T6th (77%)👀pic.twitter.com/bN2rQTZkT6 https://t.co/hYskA3bMrn
— Paul Hodowanic (@PaulHodowanic) December 8, 2024
No. 1 - Xander Schauffele
As soon as we got notice of that Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy withdrew from the field last week, it became Xander Schauffele's tournament to win. He ranks #1 in my stat model for The Sentry by a pretty wide margin. His scrambling ability is world-class on the rare occasion that he finds trouble, but it's his Ballstriking prowess from Tee to Green that makes him a perfect fit for Kapalua.
Schauffele won this event in 2019 and nearly again in 2020 when he got into a playoff with Justin Thomas. If Scheffler didn't have one of the greatest years in the history of the sport, we would be talking so much more about how amazing Xander Schauffele was in 2024, completely shedding himself off any narratives that he couldn't produce under pressure. If Schauffele brings his A game, this tournament is his to lose.
Enjoy the Sentry and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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