Let me start by saying that I'm not sold on Zero RB, Zero WR or Zero anything going into drafts. I'm not even sure why "Best Player Available" is considered a strategy. Isn't that just common sense?

One thing I am certain of is that taking a QB in the first few rounds is completely unnecessary. I won't go so far as to call it a waste of a pick, but try convincing anyone who burned a first rounder on Andrew Luck last year otherwise. In a world where a QB can throw for 4,000 yards and 29 TD the previous season, yet be selected as the QB14 in drafts, it's safe to say there are plenty of good options available even in the double digit rounds.

Let's look at some recent performances by early round busts and some gems that saved fantasy owners' skins in the later picks. One glance and you will probably be bumping several QBs down several notches in your draft rankings.

Note: ADP values and draft results courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com.

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Underperforming Quarterbacks in 2015

Let's start with the busts. In the typical fantasy football draft in the week preceding the 2015 season, here are the first three quarterbacks drafted and their ADP: 1.10 Andrew Luck, 2.09 Aaron Rodgers, 4.07 Peyton Manning. I could pretty much just drop the mic and end this section right now, but let's use some actual statistical analysis to prove what you already know.

All three could be qualified as busts. Don't play the injury card to justify their rotten seasons either. In the games Andrew Luck did play before getting injured, he had five TD compared to seven INT in his first three contests, ending up with a 15/12 TD/INT rate for the year. Manning was even worse, completing less than 60% of his passes and managing a wretched 9/17 TD/INT rate. Of course, it doesn't have those stats etched on his Super Bowl ring, so no skin off his back. Just those who burned an early draft pick on him expecting 40+ TD again. Here's a visual representation of the first five QBs drafted on average in 2015, their final stats and overall fantasy ranking.

As you can see, only Drew Brees actually retained value worthy of his ADP. At age 37, there may be some cause for concern as Peyton Manning dropped off a cliff at age 39, but it seems unlikely that this will be the season. Rodgers salvaged a top 10 ranking even without Jordy Nelson, but the question is whether he was worth an early second round pick.

 

Later Round QBs that Returned Big Value in 2015

As you will see below, there were several QBs drafted significantly later who provided even more value. Roethlisberger was close to matching his pre-season value and may have done better if not for the absences of some key skill players such as Leveon Bell and Martavis Bryant at times. Now let's look at the quarterbacks who finished with the most fantasy points and where they were drafted.

People have long predicted a breakout season like this for Newton, although maybe not quite to the extent that it actually occurred. One thing you may notice is that three of the top five QB for fantasy purposes made contributions with their feet. Palmer is pretty much a statue with a cannon arm, but it's an accurate arm so he more than made up for his lack of mobility.

This phenomenon is a new one, as drafting a dependable QB early used to be as common as the old axiom "Always take a running back first." For reference, here's how the same tables worked in 2014. As expected, Manning was the first QB taken off the boards after a record-setting season in Denver. He justified it with another excellent performance, as did most of the players on here.

You'll notice that the top five finishers at QB are not surprises, although Andrew Luck finished stronger than expected. He more than made up for that last season. Quarterback used to be the position where you did not want to wait too long and take a chance on an unproven signal caller. Here are the top QBs from 2014 in fantasy terms. Nobody here remotely resembles the pedigree of a Blake Bortles.

 

High Quality QBs to Target Later in 2016 Drafts

So, what has changed? We hear about the league becoming more pass-heavy and to some extent that is true. The other factor is that more QBs are using their mobility to add rushing value. Even Kirk Cousins scored five rushing TD last season - more than LeSean McCoy or Eddie Lacy! Cam Newton and Russell Wilson will be long gone by the time you should be thinking QB, but when a player like Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota or Tyrod Taylor are available, don't just look at passing stats and think of the added value you're getting as a rusher.

Let's say you're sold on waiting for a QB. Who are the top targets in the middle rounds? Let’s take a look at the QBs available outside the top ten at the position. All these players are available, on average, starting in the ninth round or later. All statistics represent last year’s output, not projections for this year.

It may take some time to get used to the idea of having Cousins or Taylor as your starter. When you see the type of talent you can assemble at RB/WR/TE while waiting on your QB, you'll cozy up to them pretty quickly. With a slew of 4,000 yard passers and dual-threat quarterbacks available in the 10th round, why wouldn't you wait?