The Korn Ferry 45 - Player Profiles and Research Tool

I have worked tirelessly to compile a database of Korn Ferry Tour data mixed together with PGA and DP World Tour data to help better analyze each golfer's statistical profile at a more detailed level. KFT data is extremely limited, so we have done our best to use it as advantageously as we could. This article has each player's name listed as a hyperlink above which will take you directly to their writeup. With so many KFT unknown graduates coming onto the tour, some of which playing very good golf, its essential to find out who these players are and when, where, and how we should play them. I have broken down each golfer into their strengths and weakness and "Betting and DFS Outlook".

Full disclosure: I have got about halfway through the writeups of each golfer (its been a busy start to the year) but I have every player profile card in here. To me, that's the most useful part of the article and has ALL the info you could wish for on each golfer. I want to get this information out there sooner than later so you can get the best benefit from it and will be updating the writeups in the next day or so. Use the table of contents at the beginning of the article to click on the golfer you want to research.

The cheat sheet that has all these stats in one place is available to any level premium subscriber (click here) of RotoBaller PGA. If you want to show your support for this awesome resource, use code "MANIAC" for 10% off a weekly or annual packages. The weekly "PGA Gold" package would be the cheapest way to get your hands on the cheat sheet, but I would say with unwavering certainty that getting the annual PGA Platinum package is a total no brainer as you get my stuff, Spencer Aguiar's ELITE betting track record, Joe Nicely and Joe Idone's premium work as well. You also have access to our DFS Optimizer and other tools. So much for a really competitive price that goes a long way to helping me continue to provide this kind of stuff for you! <3

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How are we ranking the Korn Ferry Forty Five?

**I have run out of time to update the names and numbers in this preface from last year, but the logic and reasoning is all still very relevant. 

This deep dive into the KFT players gaining their tour cards is partially based off of the true strokes gained (TSG) query that Data Golf has on its site. “True strokes-gained is simply raw strokes-gained — the number of strokes you beat the field by in a given tournament-round — adjusted for the strength of that field.” For more on true strokes gained visit: FAQ (datagolf.com) . The order golfers appear in this article is based off of this metric.

It will also include the raw strokes gained (RSG) for each player at a round-by-round level to determine what kinds of courses (easy, medium, hard) each golfer excelled on this year. On the KFT there were 11 easy courses (top five players averaging lower than -15), 13 medium courses (top five averaging lower than -10) and one course played hard (top five did not average lower than -10). If a KFT member played a few events on the PGA Tour, there may be a few more hard courses in his profile.

Before diving into each player’s profile, we will need to understand the significance of Raw Strokes Gained vs True Strokes Gained. To put it into perspective, in 2022 Rory McIlroy (+2.18) and Taylor Montgomery (+1.78) lead the PGA and KFT in respective RSG (a difference of 0.4 per round), but their TSG were +2.40 and +0.44 which is almost two strokes per round difference. Anticipating how KFT players would fare on the PGA, True Strokes Gained will give us a more realistic view.

With little to no strokes gained data available for OTT, APP, etc, we are going to dissect their strokes gained total numbers. We will be analyzing their top 75^th percentile of results and their average results. For this article we are going to call the 75^th percentile a player’s ceiling, as this refers to the lowest strokes gained total of their best 25% of rounds. We want to identify who is most likely to play great golf (high upside/ceiling) compared to who consistently plays good golf (high floor).

For example, Vincent Norman and Nicholas Lindheim both averaged -0.64 TSG over the last 12 months. Although they averaged the same number of strokes in their 20+ events, Norman had a 75^th percentile (ceiling) of +1.45, while Lindheim’s was +0.9, which was reflected in Norman’s two T5s while Lindheim had no T5s. This is a tiny nuance that has very little statistical relevance when looking at PGA Tour players, but with so little data available to us it is something that can help differentiate players that make up the KFT 50 when looking for upside in a more talented PGA Tour field.

We are also going to look at a player's last 12, 8 and 4 months' worth of TSG to decipher if they are heading into the new season with recent form that has surpassed their 12-month baseline. There are multiple instances of golfers who have improved tremendously throughout the year as well as those who played well early on and have since lost that level of play. To be on an upward/downward trend there needs to be a difference of +0.25/-0.25 TSG between time frames.

The main point of this article is to find as many edges as possible so we can take advantage of the KFT 45 early in the season before they accumulate more reliable PGA stats. If you have a differing opinion on an element of this article, please feel to reach out to me on Twitter @TheModelManiac and I will be happy to have a discussion about it. Although I think this article is perfect, I am fully aware I am not.

Now, let's dive into the "Korn Ferry Forty Five"!!!

 

Nicholas Lindheim

Strengths

• PGA Experience
• 3 Putt Avoidance
• SG APP / GIR%
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par 3 Scoring
• Easy / Medium Scoring
• Winning

Weaknesses

• Distance
• Sand Save%

Betting / DFS Outlook

• First Round Leader / R1 Showdown
• Easy and Medium courses, especially where accuracy over distance is rewarded

 

Alexander Bjork

Strengths

• Scrambling %
• Putting / 3 Putt Avoidance
• Bogey Avoidance
• Hard Scoring Conditions
• Approach Play
• Par 3 / Par 4 Scoring

Weaknesses

• Distance
• Birdie %
• Winning tournaments

Betting / DFS Outlook

• First Round Leader / R1 Showdown
• All difficulty courses, especially where a) accuracy over distance is rewarded and B) emphasis on short game

 

Ryan Fox

Strengths

• PGA Experience
• SG OTT
• SG Putting
• SG ARG
• Easy and Hard Courses

Weaknesses

• Not too many top 10s, despite win, but played in PGA Tour fields half the time
• Par 4 Scoring
• Bogey Avoidance
• Accuracy
• GIR%

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Top 40 market would reflect his general range of outcomes on the PGA Tour
• No particular split between rounds

 

Adrian Meronk

Strengths

• SG APP
• SG OTT
• SG Putting
• Medium & Hard Scoring
• Sand Saves
• Par 5 Scoring

Weaknesses

• 3 Putt Avoidance
• Easy Scoring
• Accuracy

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Very solid in R1, R2 & R4
• First Round Leader on Medium and Hard Courses

 

Thorbjorn Olesen

Strengths

• SG OTT
• SG APP
• Sand Saves
• SG ARG
• Par 5 Scoring
• Easy and Medium Scoring

Weaknesses

• Distance
• Hard Scoring Conditions

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Round 3 and 4 Showdown on Easy and Medium Courses

 

Ben Kohles

Strengths

• Accuracy
• Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par 3, 4, 5 scoring (well rounded)
• Easy and Medium Scoring

Weaknesses

• Distance
• Putting average

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Round 2 Showdown, Classic DFS
• Recent form looks incredible and may be an outright option with odds in 100-1 range

 

Adrian Dumont de Chassart

Strengths

• Easy Scoring!!!
• Accuracy
• Scrambling
• GIR%

Weaknesses

• Sand Save%
• Medium and Hard Scoring (small sample size)

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Wait and See... recent form has very bad

 

Jake Knapp

Strengths

• Distance
• Scrambling
• 3 Putt Avoidance
• Birdie & Bogey %
• Par 3 and Par 5s
• All course difficulty

Weaknesses

• Putting Avg
• No Win Despite Elite Top 10 Rate

Betting / DFS Outlook

• First Round Leader / R1 Showdown
• Top 20 market as he has immense upside but never finished better than 5th

 

Alejandro Tosti

Strengths

• Distance
• Easy and Medium Scoring
• Birdie %
• All Hole Types

Weaknesses

• Accuracy
• Putting / 3 Putting

Betting / DFS Outlook

• First Round Leader / R1 Showdown / Weeklong GPPs
• Top 20 Market as he is boom or bust

 

Jacob Bridgeman

Strengths

• Bogey Avoidance
• Top 20 beast
• Accuracy
• Medium and Hard Scoring
• GIR%
• Birdie %
• Bogey %

Weaknesses

• Can't win

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Super consistent golfer as punt in single entry contests
• First round showdown
• Top 40 market

 

Joe Highsmith

Strengths

• Accuracy
• Birdie %
• Par 5 Scoring
• Medium & Hard Scoring
• GIR%

Weaknesses

• Easy Scoring
• Par 3 Scoring

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Round 2 Showdown and Single-entry contests

 

Victor Perez

Strengths

• SG Putting
• SG APP

Weaknesses

• Distance
• Accuracy
• Birdie %
• Par 4 Scoring

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Recent form very blotchy. Wint that got him to graduate came a year a go. Wait and see.

 

Matthieu Pavon

Strengths

• SG Putting
• Easy & Medium
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG ARG

Weaknesses

• Distance
• Accuracy

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Round 1 showdown / FRL
• Top 20 Market

 

Ben Silverman

Strengths

• Accuracy
• Par 3 and 4 scoring
• Scrambling / Sand Saves
• Easy Scoring
• Birdie %

Weaknesses

• 3 Putt
• Par 5
• Hard Scoring

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Recent form a little rough. Wait and see.

 

Ryo Hisatsune

Strengths

• Driving Accuracy
• SG ARG / Sand Saves
• SG Putting

Weaknesses

• Par 5 scoring
• 3 Putt Avoidance
• Distance

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Top 40 Markets
• Weeklong DFS

Flag Hunting's take on Ryo

 

Jorge Campillo

Strengths

• SG APP
• SG Putting
• SG ARG
• Par 3 Scoring
• Medium & Hard Scoring

Weaknesses

• Accuracy
• Birdie %
• Par 4 & 5 Scoring
• Easy scoring

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Very inconsistent. Wait and see.

 

Max Greyserman

Strengths

• Par 5 Scoring
• Distance
• Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• Medium and Hard Scoring

Weaknesses

• Sand Save

Betting / DFS Outlook

• FRL and R1 Showdown
• Top 20 market - hot and cold upside

 

Rico Hoey

Strengths

• Distance
• Accuracy
• GIR%
• Scrambling
• Par 5 Scoring
• Easy Scoring

Weaknesses

• 3 Putt
• Sand Save%

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Recent form has been rough. Wait and see.

 

Chris Gotterup

Strengths

• DISTANCE
• GIR%
• 3 Putt
• Birdie %
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par 3, 4, 5
• Easy Scoring

Weaknesses

• Sand save
• Scrambling
• Accuracy
• Best finish was 4th

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Round 2 showdown
• Top 40 market

 

Robert MacIntyre

Strengths

• SAND SAVES
• SG APP
• SG OTT
• SG ARG

Weaknesses

• Birdie %
• Bogey %
• Par 4 Scoring
• Accuracy

Betting / DFS Outlook

• Bobby has not been playing all that well. The 2nd at the Scottish Open did all the heavy lifting. Wait and see.

 

Mac Meissner

 

Patrick Fishburn

 

Parker Coody

 

Chandler Phillips

 

Sami Valamaki

 

Jimmy Stanger

 

Ryan McCormick

 

Chan Kim

 

Roger Sloan

 

David Skinns

 

Josh Teater

 

Grayson Murray

 

Scott Gutschewski

 

Wilson Furr

 

 

Rafael Campos

 

Tom Whitney

 

Norman Xiong

 

Kevin Dougherty

 

Pierceson Coody

 

Trace Crowe

 

Paul Barjon

 

Blaine Hale Jr.

I am not going to try pretending that I know anything about Blaine Hale even after researching him. What I do know, is that he has been an incredible story, gaining his PGA Tour card without status on any tour. Below is his track record for 2023 on the All Pro Tour (APT) where he had three 3rd-place finishes. His solo third at Q School clinched his tour card after a ridiculously rough few years leading up to this life changing moment. With Blaine, we are going to have to wait and see if he just rode a hot streak or if he is starting to hit his stride on the golf course as a pro.

 

Hayden Springer

Hayden Spring finished T4 at Q School after two wins and a T6 on the Canadian Tour which is incredibly difficult to find any additional information on. These Q School guys are true enigmas with backgrounds of an ex-government assassin. Springer only managed a T53 in his fourth and final KFT event in 2023 and missed the cut at the Fortinet, losing 4 strokes putting on Friday after a really solid -3 on Thursday to give him a really good chance at making the cut which ended up at -2.

Based off his two rounds at the Fortinet, he appears to have normal distance off the tee, gaining strokes in both rounds. The rest of his game is a mystery, but he seems to be playing some really good golf right now and may be worth throwing into your lineups if he lands up in the 6k range in the first few tournaments of the year.

 

Raul Pereda

This dude is really exciting to watch! He chipped in twice in the final round of Q School to secure his tour card after a very shaky start. He also found himself alongside Tony Finau in a tie for 4th place after round 1 at the Mexico Open, where he hails from. The T60 at the Mexico Open came as a result of a +5 in the final round, where another -1 round like he had done in R2 and R3 would have seen him finish T30.

Based off these Mexican Professional Golf Tour results, he evidently has the game to play better than most his competition, but once he gets close to the top of a leaderboard things tend to get really shaky. 13 of his 15 MEX and SAM (Latin America Tour) were 22 or better, but not a single finish better than T5 with that level of consistency is rather concerning for his ceiling outlook.  But, he has a PGA Tour card now and seems like a viable R1 showdown and FRL candidate based off his ability to go nuclear early in events... I think.

I hope you enjoyed this article and that it is useful to you over the next few weeks and don't forget to show your support by getting the badass cheat sheet here 

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