The PGA Tour season now has the engine warmed up for week 3 of the season and we have a solid field with top-end talent ready to take on the course rotation in La Quinta, CA for the 2025 The American Express Tournament.
The Pete Dye Stadium Course will ultimately determine the winner but players will need to master all three courses in order to secure a victory this week. While they all share similar lengths and some stylistic aspects, we have seen certain player skill sets that are rewarded year-in-year-old in the desert.
I have carefully evaluated the field-to-project proper course fits and looked heavily into how players' incoming form has been in the categories that matter the most here. Let's dig into my Top-10 Power Rankings for the 2025 The American Express.
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No. 10 - Davis Thompson
- Burst onto the professional scene at this event in 2023 when he narrowly lost in a shootout vs. Jon Rahm.
- Top 5 in SG: OTT long-term over the last 50 rounds played.
- Ranks 4th in the field in Par 5 Birdie-or-better rates.
It’s a cruel game.
Davis Thompson was THIS close to tying the lead on 17 @TheAmExGolf. pic.twitter.com/Ygj9MURRvJ
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 22, 2023
No. 9 - Si Woo Kim
- Kim raises his baseline performance historically on Pete Dye-designed golf courses. Ripe for bounce back after missed cut at Sony.
- Won this event in 2021 and finished T11 in 2022.
- His driving accuracy is a big advantage on courses with a lot of water-danger. Also really good on TPC courses.
No. 8 - Will Zalatoris
- I'm expecting significant improvement from a healthy Zalatoris in 2025.
- He's been working extremely hard on his game and in the weight room during the offseason to be ready to start fast.
- Solid course history at the Amex and has played this event three consecutive years: T34, T36, T6.
Bulking up in the offseason 💪
With a diet of 200 grams of protein and 3,000-4,500 calories per day, Will Zalatoris gained nearly 20 pounds of muscle. pic.twitter.com/CdX5M4b9oq
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 3, 2025
No. 7 - Tony Finau
- Ranks inside the Top 5 in both SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green over the last 50 rounds played.
- Plays the event every season. Always makes the cut and should have won in 2021 before he crumbled down the stretch.
- There's no doubt he'd be ranked higher if I didn't still have concerns about his knee injury that forced two WD's recently.
No. 6 - Tom Kim
- The most accurate player OTT in the field which will be a big advantage on these courses that have a lot of water hazards in play OTT.
- T6 at this event in 2023 where he shot -23 under par.
- Ranks 3rd in SG: Total on courses with easy scoring conditions over the past three seasons.
No. 5 - Justin Thomas
- Always reliable with his wedges. Ranks 2nd best in the field in proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards in the fairway.
- Top 5 in SG: Total on both desert-style golf courses and TPC-style courses over the past two years.
- He chipped and putted great at this event last year despite not being a regular, resulting in a T3 and he was right in it all the way.
No. 4 - Sam Burns
- He was in position to win last year before a disastrous trip to the island green hole late on Sunday.
- Ranks number 1 in the field in Birdies per round over the past 50 rounds played.
- Reliable on the greens and an underrated bunker player as well. Ranks Top 5 in the field in Sand Save Percentage.
No. 3 - Patrick Cantlay
A familiar face in the desert of La Quinta, California, Patrick Cantlay will tee it up this week at The American Express for the fifth consecutive season. He's got three top-10 finishes here and nearly won in 2021 when he finished in 2nd place for the week.
Since 2019, Cantlay is an astonishing -91 under par at The American Express. His trending form toward the end of 2024 left many people optimistic that he was in store for a big season in 2025 and this is a near-perfect course fit for his strengths as a player when he is firing on all cylinders.
Cantlay is sharp with a wedge in his hand if he can find enough fairways. He's also the type of clutch putter that you can be confident in when the time comes to take control of a golf tournament. If he's going to have a big year in 2025, this would be a great place for him to hoist up a trophy early.
No. 2 - Sungjae Im
He's the number 1 ranked player in my stat model this week and if we are able to get a betting number that is greater than 20/1 on Monday morning, I will be ready to fire. Nobody is making more birdies than Sungjae Im and this is another tournament where players are going to have to stay aggressive and make a ton of them.
Im has really dialed in the configuration on his Driver which he struggled with at times last season. He gained nearly +5 strokes OTT in Hawaii at the Sentry and another +3 OTT at the ZOZO before that.
Im plays his best golf on these courses with easy scoring conditions. There are some drivable par 4s and opportunities to go for the green on the par 5s. Im ranks #1 in the field in going for the green percentage. His aggressiveness and confidence will carry him this week in the desert.
Sungjae Im cards a third-round 62 at The Sentry to equal his lowest round in 182 starts on the PGA TOUR. It marks his fourth 62 on TOUR.
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) January 5, 2025
No. 1 - Xander Schauffele
INJURY UPDATE: XANDER SCHAUFFELE HAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE AMERICAN EXPRESS
We have another great opportunity for the #2 ranked player in the world to take advantage of an event from which Scottie Scheffler had to withdraw. The amount of stats where Xander Schauffele ranks #1 in the field is too many to list, but most importantly, he's the best at SG: Total!
Schauffele has almost no weaknesses in his game at the moment. He's uber-consistent and stout on both Approach and Off The Tee. He makes plenty of birdies, but his ability to avoid bogey and scramble as well as anyone is what allows him to maintain momentum when it matters the most.
He's a good fit for almost any course, but there's reason to believe that this could be one of the best spots on the schedule to stake Schauffele. He's -52 under par in the past two years at this event, both resulting in T3 finishes. Until Scheffler makes his return from the hand injury, Schauffele is the man to beat on the PGA Tour.
Xander Schauffele’s 226-yard albatross was pure magic 🪄
Ready for 2025? pic.twitter.com/fnlMFo9gyJ
— The American Express ® (@theamexgolf) October 29, 2024
Enjoy The American Express, and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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