X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers - Buy or Sell for Week 3

Welcome back to the pitching strikeout rate risers and fallers article series! Each week, we will take a look at two K% risers and two fallers among pitchers, analyze what is behind those changes, and then decide if they are actionable. This exercise is particularly useful for fantasy players because K% holds direct fantasy value in both points and categories leagues. Understanding strikeout trends can help you take advantage of buy-low or sell-high candidates that your competition may have missed.

Last week, we compared starting pitchers’ 2018 K% to their current K%. Given the early age of the season and small sample sizes, this week we will do the same thing but for relievers. We will use RotoBaller's K-Rate Risers and Fallers premium Tool for later editions of this article.

A quick caveat related to the young season; it is sometimes difficult to draw meaningful conclusions from small sets of data, as they may not be representative of a player’s true performance overall. That being said, let’s get into our relievers K% Risers and Fallers!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

K-Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top strikeout rate risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium K-Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray. This tool will soon be active once we have a large enough sample size in the season to be considered reliable.

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games, because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

 

Strikeout Rate Risers

Ty ButtreyLos Angeles Angels

2018 K%: 28.6%, 2019 K%: 40.9%

Our first riser made a solid showing in his first Major-league stint in 2018 and seems to be carrying things over to 2019. Ty Buttrey did well in his 16 ⅓ innings of work in 2018, posting a 3.31 ERA with 20 strikeouts and four saves. While he is not currently closing for the Angels, he has gotten off to a superb start to this season; Buttrey has not allowed an earned run yet and has an impressive nine strikeouts over six IP. Is Buttrey someone that could help your fantasy team in 2019 and beyond?

Buttrey has the makings of a strikeout reliever. His fastball sits at around 96 MPH and he is also able to generate strikeouts with his slider (four of his nine strikeouts have come from the slider). His arsenal helps him avoid contact from hitters; Buttrey’s swinging-strike rate 18.5% is currently 10th-highest among relievers and his 63% contact rate is 12th-lowest. Additionally, the 26-year-old has strong command (0.83 WHIP), so he provides more value than just strikeouts for fantasy players.

Overall, Buttrey is an interesting fantasy reliever with considerable upside. He isn’t a closer right now but has been used mostly as a setup man for Cody Allen, so he presumably would see save opportunities if Allen would falter. Regardless, Buttrey could help fantasy players in categories leagues in at least three of five categories.

Jordan Hicks - St. Louis Cardinals

2018 K%: 20.7%, 2019 K%: 36.4%

Our second riser showed the makings of an elite reliever in 2018 and has picked up right where he left off. 22-year-old Jordan Hicks posted a 3.59 ERA with 70 strikeouts and six saves in 77 ⅔ IP in 2018 and has improved so far in 2019. His 2.57 ERA is lower, he has continued to see save opportunities (converting three of four chances), and has eight strikeouts in seven IP. Is now the time to go all-in for Hicks?

The main reason Hicks has been so promising is the great stuff he has to work with. He has a 100-MPH sinker and an 86-MPH slider which he can keep down in the zone (his average launch angle is a solid 6.5 degrees). His velocity has been there out of the gate and he has gotten batters to miss more on his thrown strikes (36.6% whiff rate vs 24.4% in 2018) and on his pitches in general (16.7% swinging-strike rate vs 9.4% in 2018). Consequently, batters have made less contact overall against Hicks (63.4% vs 76.9% in 2018).

There isn’t much more that needs to be said about Hicks. He’s a young flamethrower who could be a huge fantasy factor this season, especially if he continues to see save opportunities. His lone blemish is his proclivity for walks (he has a 3.86 BB/9 rate in his young career), but fantasy owners will overlook that with everything else he can provide. Hicks looks like the real deal and should be owned everywhere.

 

Strikeout Rate Fallers

Jose Leclerc - Texas Rangers

2018 K%: 38.1%, 2019 K%: 13%

Our first faller broke out in the fantasy world last season by taking over as the Rangers closer. Jose Leclerc looked like an exciting fantasy option after his 2018 performance; the now 25-year-old had the seventh-highest K% among relievers with 12 saves. Things don’t look quite as good for Leclerc so far in 2019; he has a massive 6.00 ERA and six strikeouts in six IP. Should fantasy owners be concerned that last season was just a fluke?

First, Leclerc’s overall numbers are misleading due to the small sample size. He has pitched six decent outings and had one rough outing in which he gave up three runs in just a third of an inning against the Diamondbacks. That one outing has a much greater effect on his averages now; every pitcher has a few bad outings over the course of the season, but they get overshadowed by the greater number of solid performances. Leclerc is securely the Rangers closer, so fantasy owners don’t need to worry about his early performance overall.

Digging into his strikeout numbers, nothing alarming stands out for Leclerc. In fact, the velocity and spin rate on his two main pitches, the fastball and slider, are actually up in 2019. He has good velocity for his fastball and great movement on both pitches, so the arsenal is definitely still there. Further, his 2019 swinging-strike rate (4.9%) and contact rate (87.5%) are significantly off from his career totals (15.5% and 64.8%, respectively). I expect regression back towards his career numbers over the course of the season.

Overall, no one should be concerned about Leclerc. He has all the tools he needs to be successful and has merely been a victim of a small sample size. Fantasy owners will be rewarded if they stay patient.

Richard Rodriguez - Pittsburgh Pirates

2018 K%: 31.5%, 2019 K%: 19.4%

This faller was surprisingly useful in deep fantasy leagues last season, particularly in holds leagues. Richard Rodriguez was a solid bullpen piece for the Pirates in 2018, generating 88 strikeouts with 15 holds and a 2.47 ERA in 69 ⅓ IP. He does have two holds in 2019, but also has a 6.75 ERA and just six strikeouts in 6 ⅔ IP. So will Rodriguez provide any fantasy value for the rest of the season?

A few things stand out after diving into Rodriguez’s numbers. Rodriguez throws a fastball and a slider, and his velocity is similar on both compared to 2018 (92.5 average MPH vs 92.9 MPH in 2018 for the fastball, 80.6 average MPH vs 80.9 MPH in 2018 for the slider). His spin rates are actually up for both pitches (2,473 revolutions per minute vs 2,374 in 2018 for the fastball, 2,323 revolutions per minute vs 2,151 in 2018 for the slider), so he should be getting more movement than last season. His contact rate is up (79.1% vs 71.8% in 2018) but his swinging-strike rate is similar (10.5% vs 13.8% in 2018).

In sum, there is nothing alarming about Rodriguez’s stats compared to 2018 yet. Given his underlying numbers, there is no reason to think that he will not perform at the same level given a larger sample size. He should continue to provide stability to fantasy owners’ numbers in deep categories leagues.

All stats current as of Sunday, April 14.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NFL19 mins ago

Cowboys Pick Up Micah Parsons' Fifth-Year Option
Ezekiel Elliott31 mins ago

Cowboys Meeting With Ezekiel Elliott
Cincinnati Bengals37 mins ago

Trey Hendrickson Requests A Trade From Bengals
Carlos Correa1 hour ago

Could Return Soon
Kevin Kiermaier1 hour ago

Placed On 10-Day Injured List
Framber Valdez1 hour ago

Expected To Start This Weekend
Nic Claxton2 hours ago

Nicolas Claxton The "No. 1 Priority" For Nets In Offseason
Cal Raleigh2 hours ago

To Miss Wednesday's Game
Grayson Allen2 hours ago

Not Ruled Out For Game 3
Nikola Jovic2 hours ago

Available For Game 2
Ryan Lomberg3 hours ago

Could Be Back For Game 3
Cam Talbot3 hours ago

Starts Game 2 For Kings
Logan Thompson3 hours ago

Heads Out For Another Win Wednesday
Jake Oettinger3 hours ago

Tries To Bounce Back Wednesday
Nolan Jones3 hours ago

Not Playing Wednesday
Jani Hakanpaa3 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Tyler Myers3 hours ago

Battling The Flu
Michael Toglia3 hours ago

Rockies Recall Hunter Goodman, Option Michael Toglia
Lane Thomas4 hours ago

Dealing With Grade 2 Knee Sprain
Addison Barger4 hours ago

Being Called Up By Blue Jays
Michael Penix Jr.4 hours ago

Could Be Among Top-Four Quarterbacks Selected
Gavin Williams4 hours ago

Shut Down For A Week
J.D. Martinez4 hours ago

Expected To Make Season Debut Friday
Lane Thomas4 hours ago

Nationals Put Lane Thomas On Injured List
Jared Goff4 hours ago

No New Deal “Imminent” For Jared Goff
Blake Snell4 hours ago

Strain Considered Moderate
Pete Crow-Armstrong5 hours ago

Called Up By Cubs
Cody Bellinger5 hours ago

Heads To Injured List With Rib Fracture
Heston Kjerstad5 hours ago

Sitting Against Left-Hander
Ryan Mountcastle5 hours ago

Back In Orioles Lineup
J.J. McCarthy6 hours ago

Broncos Interested In J.J. McCarthy
Rafael Devers6 hours ago

Officially Returning On Wednesday
Brayan Bello6 hours ago

Hits 15-Day Injured List
Detroit Lions6 hours ago

Penei Sewell Becomes Highest-Paid Offensive Lineman
Justin Fields6 hours ago

Steelers Not Expected To Pick Up Justin Fields' Fifth-Year Option
Jackson Holliday6 hours ago

Sitting Versus Lefty Again
Rashod Bateman6 hours ago

Ravens Sign Rashod Bateman To Contract Extension
Ja'Marr Chase7 hours ago

Bengals Exercise Ja'Marr Chase's Fifth-Year Option
Amon-Ra St. Brown7 hours ago

Lions Agree To Four-Year Extension With Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nicolas Hague7 hours ago

Out For Vegas On Wednesday
James van Riemsdyk7 hours ago

To Make Series Debut Wednesday
Sam Bennett7 hours ago

To Miss Significant Time
William Nylander7 hours ago

Looking Unlikely For Game 3
Brett Pesce7 hours ago

Likely Out For Remainder Of First Round
Thatcher Demko7 hours ago

Listed As Week-To-Week
Blake Snell7 hours ago

Placed On 15-Day Injured List
Ilya Sorokin7 hours ago

To Start Game 3
Dylan Crews8 hours ago

Dealing With Minor Issue
Cale Makar10 hours ago

Registers Two Assists In Game 2
Tom Wilson10 hours ago

Notches Two Points In Tuesday's Loss
Alexis Lafrenière10 hours ago

Alexis Lafreniere Collects Two Assists In Game 2 Victory
Filip Forsberg11 hours ago

Leads The Charge As Nashville Ties Series
Victor Hedman11 hours ago

Posts Two Assists In Game 2
Carter Verhaeghe11 hours ago

Hits Overtime Winner In Game 2
Sam Bennett11 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury In Game 2
James Harden11 hours ago

Settles For 22 Points In Game 2
Luka Doncic11 hours ago

Leads All Scorers With 32 Points In Game 2
Damian Lillard11 hours ago

Scores 34 Points In Losing Effort
Tyrese Haliburton12 hours ago

Collects A Double-Double In Game 2 Win
Pascal Siakam12 hours ago

In Fantastic Form Once Again Versus Milwaukee
Devin Booker12 hours ago

Leads Suns With 20 Points In Game 2
Anthony Edwards12 hours ago

Struggles In Game 2
Daniel Gafford21 hours ago

Returns To Game 2
Karl-Anthony Towns22 hours ago

Has A Rough Night On Tuesday
Jaden McDaniels22 hours ago

Erupts In Game 2
Daniel Gafford22 hours ago

Questionable To Return To Game 2
Luke Kornet23 hours ago

Out Again For Game 2
Grayson Allen23 hours ago

Won't Return To Tuesday's Game
Kawhi Leonard24 hours ago

Returns To Clippers Lineup
Grayson Allen1 day ago

Ready To Go Tuesday
Zion Williamson1 day ago

Confident Of Returning In Playoffs
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Ruled Out For Game 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo1 day ago

To Remain Out On Tuesday
Andrew Peeke1 day ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Brandon Aiyuk1 day ago

Trade Remains "Very Much In Play"
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Broncos Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Patrick Surtain II
New England Patriots1 day ago

Patriots Haven't Received "Serious" Offers For No. 3 Pick
Kadarius Toney1 day ago

Still In Chiefs' Plans
Jake Browning1 day ago

Bengals Re-Sign Jake Browning
Brandon Aiyuk2 days ago

49ers Have Received Calls Regarding Brandon Aiyuk
Dak Prescott2 days ago

Not Trying To Be Highest-Paid Player
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Broncos Acquiring Zach Wilson From Jets
Matt Ryan2 days ago

Officially Retires From NFL
Cincinnati Bengals2 days ago

Sam Hubbard Recovering From Ankle Surgery
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Survives At Talladega For First Win Of 2024
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

Finishes Second At Talladega After Last-Lap Wreck
Anthony Alfredo2 days ago

Gets Best Finish For Beard Motorsports Since 2022
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

One Of The Strongest At Talladega
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace Finishes 36th At Talladega Superspeedway
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Fails To Deliver Value In DFS At Talladega
NASCAR3 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Fourth At Talladega
Noah Gragson3 days ago

Surprisingly The Most Consistent Driver At Talladega
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Acquits Himself Nicely In Drafting Debut
Michael McDowell3 days ago

Ends Talladega Wrecked From The Lead
Alex Bowman3 days ago

Quietly Captures Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Daniel Hemric3 days ago

Surges To Ninth-Place Result At Talladega
Harrison Burton3 days ago

Squeezes Into Top 10 At Talladega
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace Will Start 14th For the GEICO 500
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Avoid Rostering Tyler Reddick At Talladega?
John Hunter Nemechek3 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster John Hunter Nemechek At Talladega?
Joey Logano3 days ago

Expect Joey Logano To Compete For The Win At Talladega
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Is Denny Hamlin Recommended For Talladega?
Justin Haley3 days ago

Is A Top DFS Value At Talladega
William Byron3 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win Talladega
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Is Best Suited As A Tournament Play At Talladega
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Mock Draft Round 1 - Final Predictions from All 32 Teams

Alright, folks, NFL Draft week is finally here: that magical time when every fan can dare to dream again! If you've been reading some of these mocks during the season, you know what a ride it's been and I sincerely appreciate any of you who've been following along. With the first big wave of NFL... Read More


Rome Odunze - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Coach Knows Ball: Rome Odunze NFL Draft Film Breakdown of Washington WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Jordan Travis - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2024 NFL Draft Injury News - Updates For Jonathon Brooks, Jordan Travis, Cooper DeJean, Kool-Aid McKinstry

The 2024 NFL Draft is here! It's an exciting time for NFL fans and prospects alike, but unfortunately, there are a handful of players who are battling injury concerns before their professional careers even begin. Some injuries will affect a player's draft stock, so it's worth glancing over the latest injury news regarding rising rookies.... Read More


Rome Odunze - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Blockbuster Trade Ideas for the 2024 NFL Draft

The 2024 NFL Draft is right around the corner, and the rumor mill is heating up. While the NFL Draft is full of chaos and excitement without trade action, everyone loves to see a blockbuster deal made. A few expected blockbuster deals are getting thrown around on social media, headlined by the Minnesota Vikings trading... Read More


Caleb Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Brandon Murchison's 2024 First-Round NFL Mock Draft

In the realm of fantasy football, anticipation and strategy reach a fever pitch as the NFL Draft approaches. Every selection, every pick holds the potential to reshape not only the fortunes of real-life franchises but also the fantasy landscape for millions of enthusiasts. As the curtain rises on this year's first-round NFL Mock Draft, fantasy managers... Read More


Marvin Harrison Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Draft - Pro Player Comparisons for the Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies

Rookie fever is nearing its peak, and in just a few days, we'll know with full certainty where these prospects will be playing their games on Sundays. In turn, fantasy football gamers will be poring over player tapes, stats, and metrics like "Oops, I forgot to study, and my final is tomorrow" for upcoming rookie... Read More


Adonai Mitchell - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Top 100 NFL Draft Prospects (Final)

With the NFL Draft just a day away, it’s time to submit my final rankings for this class. Below, you will find the top-100 prospects on my board for 2024. There will be some changes from last month, as well as some surprises. Feel free to criticize my choices and views on the platform formerly... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

2024 NFL Draft - Overvalued Prospects Who Could Slip on Draft Night

A few weeks ago, I was watching the 2007 NFL Draft. It was on the NFL's Pluto TV channel and I didn't have anything else to do, so I figured I'd turn it on. I was struck by two things. First, it's wild how far technology has come since 2007. They kept advertising that you... Read More


Bo Nix - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2024 NFL Mock Draft - Round 2 and 3 Final Predictions

Can you feel it? We're just over one day away from the 2024 NFL Draft, folks! Summer's breeze is almost here as well, but not before we dive deep into draft season. With the initial wave of free agency settling down, the roster blueprints for our 32 teams are coming into sharp focus. Hunting for... Read More


Tyler Boyd - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Is Tyler Boyd a Free Agent? Top Landing Spots for Boyd This Offseason

For eight seasons, Cincinnati was Tyler Boyd’s home. He amassed 6,000 receiving yards on 513 receptions and scored 31 touchdowns during his time with the Bengals. Boyd was a trusted option for quarterback Joe Burrow and was great as the team’s primary slot receiver. Unfortunately, the club opted not to re-sign him this offseason. After... Read More


Caleb Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Draft - Potential Busts In First-Round Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts

The fantasy football offseason is an interesting time for dynasty players. With the combine behind us and the NFL Draft just ahead, we have collected nearly every bit of information we need aside from landing spots. This year's class brings in a new wave of gifted athletes primed to impact the NFL and our fantasy... Read More


Bo Nix - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2024 NFL Draft: Updated Draft Stocks For Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. - Will They Be First-Round Picks?

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix and Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. are being compared to each other ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft, and it makes sense considering their similar collegiate career paths. Both signal-callers struggled early in their career at different schools but turned it around and blossomed into stars in the Pac-12. However, projecting... Read More


Jaylen Wright - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Primer #2: How and When to Rebuild Your Fantasy Football Dynasty League Team

Several weeks ago, we published the first part of my Dynasty Primer series. That article delves into how dynasty managers can and should value dynasty draft picks, especially rookie-only picks. The aim is to help fans understand how to value dynasty draft picks, independent of player valuations or analyst opinions on the players you might... Read More