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Those of you familiar with Fangraphs and their plethora of advanced stats have probably seen and evaluated Hard Hit rate before. Statcast keeps its own set of data based on exit velocity and even measures the number of balls leaving the bat over 95 mph. It's not surprising that the leaderboard is littered with superstars and fantasy studs, but there are always outliers.
Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers. Just as we've done for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics.
Each week, we'll take a look at some key Statcast offensive metrics in order to assess risers and fallers. This time, we'll look at the potential usefulness of home run distance in identifying power risers or fallers.
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Surprising Chart Toppers
All stats current as of May 27, 2018
Matt Olson (1B/OF, OAK) - 55.7% Hard Hit%
It seems like all Olson did in the second half of 2017 was hit the ball hard, usually over the fence. He ripped 20 HR in 43 games, but that came with an unsustainable 41.4% HR/FB rate, as only one of his long flies turned into a double. He was expected to be a breakout player this year, but he's got a more realistic ISO of .190 and eight homers in 52 games this year. He is on pace to finish between 25-30 homers, which is perfectly fine even if it isn't the Judge-like numbers some anticipated.
It's not necessarily a shock to see him among the hard hit leaders, but given his production versus expectations, fantasy owners might be pleasantly surprised. You should be happy to know that he is still scorching the ball, although they aren't all leaving the yard. His Statcast Hard Hit rate ranks fourth among all batters with 100 BBE, but according to Fangraphs he is second among qualified hitters with a 51.6% Hard%. In an almost equal amount of at-bats as last year (189-184), he's got nine more doubles and 16 less home runs. That doesn't make roto league owners happy, but it still gives him starting 1B value in points leagues and shows that he is making hard contact. The exit velocity is still exceptional, placing sixth in the majors, so an uptick in launch angle could lead to another home run barrage.
Hanley Ramirez (1B, FA) 46.5% Hard Hit%
Ramirez started hot and was actually having one of his better recent statistical seasons as a Red Sox player up until his 0-for-20 skid, just before being designated for assignment. He'll land on his feet somewhere, likely as a DH for a non-contender or a platoon player for a decent team, but this isn't the place to speculate. The point is that wherever he winds up, he could still deliver value but that comes with a big caveat. Ramirez ranks in the top 25 in Hard Hit rate and top 30 in exit velocity. The misleading part is that his hard hits are mainly coming as ground balls. He has the third-highest exit velocity on ground balls (94.3 mph), but falls to 69th for fly balls and line drives. Despite his four steals, he's just not going to leg out grounders any more. His sprint speed is a lowly 25.7, which is lower than Matt Adams, Russell Martin, and Matt Olson, among 341 others. He also needs to start increasing his launch angle to lower his 1.49 GB/FB rate and put that hard contact to better use. His landing spot will determine whether he can keep driving in runs at the same clip, which is unlikely. This is a player who still has the bat speed, but will need to find the right situation to thrive and have any use as a fantasy asset.
Domingo Santana (OF, MIL) 45.1% Hard Hit%
Is he an underachiever this year or was he a massive overachiever last year? At age 25, you have to bet on the former at this point. The lack of consistent playing time and terrible April numbers suggest he's probably pressing at the plate when given the chance. That and he's simply unplayable against lefties, as he's batting .098 with no homers and 15 strikeouts in 41 AB versus southpaws this year. May has been better, as he finally left the yard on three occasions and is hitting .290 for the month. Although his season-long numbers don't show it, he is squaring the ball up fairly well. His 45.1% Hard% is 33rd among all hitters with at least 100 BBE and he is also 54th in Barrels/Plate Appearance. You could argue that last year's power burst was thanks to an inflated 30.9% HR/FB, but he owns a career mark of 26.8%, so he is definitely in line for some positive regression. That is especially true given the quality of his contact. His plate discipline isn't really worse than last year, other than a slight dip in O-Contact%. Hard as it may be to swallow, Santana remains a good buy-low candidate for the second half, especially given the injuries to Ryan Braun and Eric Thames that guarantee him regular playing time.
Alarming Bottom Dwellers
Jonathan Schoop (2B, BAL) 25.7% Hard Hit%
Schoop's poor numbers can be excused in large part due to injury. He hit the disabled list two weeks into the season and missed nearly a month of action. Since then, there's been a lot of swinging and missing for Schoop and not much in the way of counting stats. Schoop's absurdly low 2.8% walk rate is scary when juxtaposed to his 23.6% K%. Then again, it's really not unusual for him. His 0.12 BB/K is actually better than the 0.11 he posted in 2014 and 2015 over a full season and pretty close to 2016's 0.15 BB/K. What Schoop owners should be concerned about is the quality of (or lack thereof) contact. He sits in the bottom 20 of Hard Hit% with 26 percent and only has six barrels to his credit. Time could heal all in this case, since it's a relatively small sample size, but if the oblique injury is still nagging him, it could be a long season. We've already seen Wil Myers revisit the DL for an extended time and Schoop could be sapped of his power if not fully healed. Unless he turns things around soon, you may want to consider shopping him around.
Zack Cozart (2B/3B/SS, LAA) 28% Hard Hit%
I recently advocated selling or avoiding Cozart this season and this further reinforces my case. Cozart is supposed to provide some pop in the middle infield after hitting 24 HR last year and joining a better lineup in the American League. Instead, he's got a hard hit rate that ranks lower than lightweights such as Adeiny Hechavarria, Orlando Arcia, and Dixon Machado. Last year, he enjoyed career bests not only in homers, but walk rate, BABIP, and slugging. His hard hit rate has been climbing each of the last five seasons unbelievably, but it has always been below league average and at some point was bound to curtail. Once he finds his groove in his new surroundings, you should still expect closer to 2016 numbers than 2017.
Brian Dozier (2B, MIN) 28.9% Hard Hit%
You could just patently dismiss any Dozier-related criticism with "He's just a slow starter," and wouldn't be too far off. Last year he hit .242 with decent power numbers in the first half before taking off as one of the top hitters in baseball throughout the second half. In 2016, the difference was even more striking, as he hit 45 points higher and actually doubled his home run total in 11 fewer at-bats over the second half. If there's a buy-low candidate after the break, it's Dozier (and possibly teammate Byron Buxton). Still, it's concerning that he's barreled just nine balls and is on pace for his lowest Hard Hit rate of the Statcast era.
He's managed seven home runs and 10 doubles, so he hasn't been nearly as bad as Buxton, but fantasy owners are not getting nearly enough return on their investment. Jeff Zimmerman took a look at Dozier's numbers after the first month of the season, concluding that something was definitely lacking in his raw power. At 31, it's possible his power has taken a slight step back, but more than likely he's saving his best for last. As a free agent at the end of this year, Dozier could be a prime buy-low candidate while his struggles continue.
