X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Seeing The Future, Part 1: A Look At This Year's NBA Rookie Class

With most fantasy playoffs in full swing, and articles all over the place with regards to waiver pickups, stream targets and playoff match-up analysis, I figured it'd be a good time to instead take a look with an eye on the future.

2017-2018's rookie class was one of the most exciting in recent memory, and I'm going to be going over the future outlook down the road, starting with some of the bigger names in this draft class.

Let's begin with with the front-runners for Rookie of the Year.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including NBA Writer of the Year, Best NFL Series, MLB Series, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

Simmons has lived up to the hype and then some, posting a phenomenal season with top 60 value in standard 8-cat leagues (and top 20(!) in punt FT% builds). He has shown generational ball handling skills, especially for someone of that size, and has been the second best player on a playoff team on the rise.

What's more amazing is that Simmons has done this without any semblance of a shot. An astounding 92% of his shot attempts have come either at the rim or the short mid-range, which makes it all the more crazier that Simmons has been this productive when opponents can sag off him defensively due to the nonexistent threat of his shooting.

Player Comparison: Young LeBron James

The easiest and laziest comparison is a young LeBron. LeBron came into the league as a gifted play-making big with a suspect shot, a generational passer for someone of his size and strength. While LeBron wasn't a good shooter when he entered the league 15 years ago, he at least attempted to shoot, with 42% of his shots coming from either long mid-range or behind the arc.

It took LeBron 8 or so years to eventually become a dangerous shooter, and while it'll be hard pressed for Simmons to get to that level, there is a decent chance that he will develop somewhat of a shot down the road. The passing and play-making might be even more refined than James was at this age, so if Simmons is able to become even a 33% 3-point shooter, he will be absolutely lethal.

Ceiling: Top 30 near term, first round long term

Simmons is already close to an elite fantasy guy, and his game translates exceptionally well. In a punt FT% build, he will already be returning close to first round value next year, especially considering how valuable his out of position assists and steals are for that particular build. Even without a shot, he will be a linchpin of that build for years to come.

If he's able to develop a shot at all and become a better free-throw shooter, look out - he could end up fighting for the first overall pick a few years down the road.

 

Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz

The other contender for Rookie of the Year, Mitchell has been amazing this season, becoming the go-to scorer for a legitimate playoff team that has still played better than its record suggests. Mitchell has already been a top-60 player this year, and this includes his slow start to the season as the Jazz were still breaking in their new rookie. He's been absolutely electric leading the offense of a team that desperately needed it.

Player Comparison: James Harden

By now, everyone's seen the per 36 comparisons for Mitchell's season versus James Harden at the same age, but here it is again for reference:

Harden:

.436FG% .349 3PT% .843FT% 4.2REB 2.9AST 1.5 STL 0.4BLK 1.7TO

Mitchell:

.436FG% .348 3PT% .842FT% 3.9REB 3.9AST 1.6 STL 0.4BLK 3.0TO

That's incredible. Mitchell is already taking on more ball-handling responsibilities than Harden did commandeering OKC's second unit at the time, and it's reasonable to expect that aspect of his game to improve as he gets older.

Ceiling: Top 40 short term, first round long term

The Don is absolutely an all-star in the making, and he's already a great fantasy player who should slot comfortably into the top 40 next season. The biggest I believe that Mitchell has first round upside, regardless if he develops his play-making to the level James Harden has, is his 1.5 per game steal rate as a rookie. A large part making up the difference between first round and second round elite point guards is steals, as the guys who sit or have sat in the first round (Curry, Westbrook, Harden, Wall, CP3) all possess steal rates above 1.5, while guys like Lillard and Irving who are great but sit just outside the first round have had rates below 1.0.

Mitchell is already at that 1.5 mark as a rookie, and could have peak seasons close to 2. He's already going to be a comfortable 20+ ppg scorer next season, and if he is able to get his assists up to something like 6+ down the road, that could very well be the basis of a first round skillset.

 

Jayson Tatum

Tatum opened the season fast, posting insane efficiency for a rookie off unsustainable 3-point shooting. His shooting has since petered out a bit since that scorching start, and his output over the last 3 months has languished outside the top 100. He's still playing significant minutes for a contending team, which is great for a rookie who is still just 19 years old.

Player Comparison: Gordon Hayward

The fantasy skill-set is almost identical to Hayward, and it is easy to see Tatum developing into a similar type of player as Hayward, except a lot quicker than Gordon did. It took Gordon until his age 24 season before he developed into a borderline superstar and top 40 fantasy player, and it's reasonable to expect Tatum to reach that level by his age 21 season. The mix of good efficiency, coupled with across the board production won't make him a linchpin of any specific build, but a glue guy that can slot in a multitude of different ones.

Ceiling: Top 70 short term, top 20 long term

The one thing that could hold Tatum back from reaching a higher ceiling in fantasy is a lack of defensive stats. Tatum is only posting 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks this season, well below the types of numbers most top 20 and up guys put up in at least one of those categories. Hayward jumped to 1.4 steals in his 4th season, which is one of the main reason why he vaulted into an elite fantasy guy, and we need to see Tatum make a similar kind of jump to reach his potential. Tatum's ceiling would look something like 2 3s, with a steal and a block, which is elite production worthy of an early pick.

 

Lonzo Ball

Despite suffering through an injury riddled rookie year, Lonzo has quietly been a top-70 guy in standard builds and a ridiculous top-20 value in both punt FT% and punt FG% builds. He has one of the most unique, fantasy friendly games we have seen in a long time, and while the concerns regarding his percentages are a legitimate concern, it's a lot less so from a fantasy standpoint as you can easily punt one or both of those stats.

Player Comparison: Draymond Green

This comparison makes no sense in real life, but in fantasy there couldn't be a more perfect match. Draymond has a very similar skill-set, providing across the board production while  hurting you in the %s, but Draymond's percentages are not nearly as bad as what Lonzo posted this season, and as Lonzo develops, we can expect him to jump to a similar level of efficiency as well at some point in his career. Draymond gets you out of position assists and steals for a big man, while Lonzo gets you out of position rebounds and blocks for a guard. This is the kind of thing that makes fantasy basketball more interesting than other sports, 2 completely different players in real life can have almost identical skill-sets in our world.

Ceiling: Top 30 short term, Top 10 value in punt builds

As early as next season, Lonzo will already be a top 20 value for punt FT% and punt FG% builds, and soon, he can easily find himself returning top 10. Right now, with his low volume, he won't hurt as much in non-punt builds but the concern is as his volume ramps up, he will become a bigger drag in those categories and become purely a punt guy. There will be a year or 2 window before his efficiency catches up a bit that he will only really be viable at his ADP for those specific punt builds, but as his career progresses, we can expect him to be an insane fantasy player and remain one of the most unique players in the game today.

 

Check back next week for another back of rookies as we move on with our analysis!

 

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis



DFS Premium Subscription



Get a free trial of our powerful Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Cheat Sheets, and Lineup Optimizers & Generators with daily matchup projections.

Win more. Try the most advanced lineup optimizer in daily fantasy sports.
Sign Up Now!



POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Al Horford7 mins ago

Won't Face The Hawks
Jrue Holiday12 mins ago

Available On Thursday
Tarik Skubal27 mins ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes48 mins ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis1 hour ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer3 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw3 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler3 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager3 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz3 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Alex Caruso3 hours ago

Ayo Dosunmu Probable Friday
Darius Garland3 hours ago

Probable Against 76ers
Donovan Mitchell3 hours ago

Upgraded To Questionable
Duncan Robinson5 hours ago

Heat Rule Out Duncan Robinson Friday
Bryan Reynolds5 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jimmy Butler5 hours ago

Probable Against Portland
Onyeka Okongwu6 hours ago

Remains Out Thursday
Dejounte Murray6 hours ago

Questionable With Back Soreness
Jordan Romano7 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Gerrit Cole7 hours ago

Yankees Put Gerrit Cole On 60-Day Injured List
Elly De La Cruz7 hours ago

Batting In Six-Hole On Opening Day
Anthony Rendon7 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff On Opening Day
Wander Franco7 hours ago

Placed On Administrative Leave
Aaron Ekblad8 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov8 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto8 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin8 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard8 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins8 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist8 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear8 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Keita Bates-Diop9 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season
Dyson Daniels9 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday But Nearing Return
LaMelo Ball9 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of 2023-24
Jose Alvarado9 hours ago

Questionable To Face Milwaukee
Jaden Springer9 hours ago

Considered Questionable
Xavier Tillman9 hours ago

Sr. Questionable Thursday
Gabe Vincent9 hours ago

Expected To Return To Action On Sunday
Al Horford20 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White20 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl22 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon22 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter22 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic22 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio22 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Eduardo Rodriguez23 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Garrett Mitchell23 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Chad Green24 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Erik Swanson24 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman24 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen1 day ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers1 day ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers1 day ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels1 day ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby1 day ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA1 day ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry1 day ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan1 day ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg1 day ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn1 day ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby1 day ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord1 day ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala1 day ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler1 day ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder1 day ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More