12 of the 15 most expensive golfers on the Round 2 showdown slate lost a total of 14.7 strokes putting today, with the best putting performance of the dirty dozen barely gaining +0.1 on the greens. Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth played together and gained a total of 6.3 strokes putting, ultimately landing Cantlay (+4.0 SG P) in first at -7 and Spieth (+2.2) in a tie for fifth after Thursday's round. Something about these greens today had the world's best golfers in a complete putting pretzel.
Adding further mystery to the riveting Riviera putting palooza, according to @JustinRayGolf, Luke List made more feet of putts today than anybody has at Riviera in the last 20 years, surpassing his total feet of putts holed in four rounds here last year. He lost -7.1 strokes putting on the very same greens just 12 months ago. What. Is. Happening? Anyway, let's dive into the showdown slate for Round 2.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating toward, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 1 Analysis
Winning Lineup
Round 1 DK Points Leaders
Round 1 Ownership Leaders
Weather, Course Conditions & Tee Times
Round 2 Strategy
R1 had a 0.9 stroke advantage for guys that went off in the a.m. wave vs those that had to brave the wind in the afternoon. Ownership typically concentrates a little towards the a.m. wave as the course plays a little softer before the wind and sun dries the course out as the day goes on. We will still be looking to target a few guys going off later tomorrow, potentially getting single digit ownership on somebody who has a fantastic round in the afternoon, while looking for some low owned options going off in the morning, too.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
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Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $1 20 ENTRY MAX, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite play: Rory McIlroy played atrociously, with the majority of his lost strokes coming on and around the greens. He was second in the field in strokes gained off the tee, yet is sitting a few places out of dead last. He has played well here in the past and we have seen these professional golfers flip a switch the next day and surge up the leaderboard. He is also in danger of missing the cut, which is an extra incentive to give it his best go tomorrow. He is going to be ultra-low owned after his dud today, with the majority of the contestants chasing Patrick Cantlay.
Other options: Viktor Hovland
$9,000+
Favorite play: Xander Schauffele hardly spends more than a round or two way down the leaderboard. He is currently in T24, six shots back of his buddy, Patrick Cantlay, who gained 5.5 more strokes on the greens than Xander in Round 1. If Xander can fire up the putter with hardly any pressure holding him back, we could see the best round of the day come from a relatively low-owned X factor.
Other options: Ludvig Aberg, Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa
$8,000+
Favorite play: Sahith Theegala has the best Round 2 SG average in the $8K range. He also did nothing well in Round 1. If he can live up to that Friday reputation, we have a situation, a Theegala R2 sensation. He can go scorched earth on approach, around the greens, or with the putter. After all, he plays his best out west.
Other options: Adam Scott, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark
$7,000+
Favorite play: Nicolai Hojgaard was a staple of my Round 1 showdown player pool, but never quite got it rolling on Thursday. His Round 2 raw strokes gained average (including rounds on the DPWT -- unadjusted for strength of field) is second only to Scottie Scheffler. He has explosiveness and an affinity to play his best golf in Round 2. Tomorrow is going to be fun to watch this long hitting youngster scorch Riviera CC.
Other options: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Emiliano Grillo
$6,000+
Favorite play: Patrick Rodgers is from California and hits it a country mile. If he can have one of those rounds where his driver generates the momentum the rest of his game needs, he can scoot himself up the leaderboard in a hurry.
Other options: Gary Woodland, Kevin Yu
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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