X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Q&A: Why is Paul Goldschmidt's ADP so high? Where would you recommend taking him?

Question Submitted to RotoBaller >>

Name: Steve

Fantasy Baseball Question: Why is everyone so enamored of Paul Goldschmidt? Guy is going really early in mock drafts. Where would you recommend taking him?

League Type, Categories and Player Pool: Roto 5x5, Mixed league

Roster Positions: Standard

Any Other League Details: 12 team league

 


RotoBaller Detailed Analysis >>

Hi Steve,

Thanks a lot for your question! And thank you for awakening me from my winter hibernation from fantasy baseball! Every year I need a couple months to regroup after the grueling slog of multiple competitive daily leagues. Lucky for you, around the new year I usually start my stats / fantasy consumption, and I’m well on my way to preparing for 2013!

Paul Goldschmidt’s ranking / ADP was something I was also puzzled over, so let’s dig into things further. Last year, his first full year in the bigs, he hit .286-20-82-82-18 in 514 AB. He was 24 years old. Those are very respectable numbers, good for 53rd overall and 5th for 1B. But his ADP is 20 (per Mock Draft Central) and he’s ranked within the top 25 almost universally, which means his backers are expecting a season around 285-28-100-95-15 . That would put him in elite hitting company and warrant a top 25 pick. The question is – what are the chances he actually achieves this?

What I won’t give you is an iron clad probability. What I can give you is a list of pros / cons to help understand how credible the projection is.

Pros (in favor of achieving the projection):
- Learning to Hit Righties – Goldschmidt hit righties better as the year went on
- Better Control – While a 22% K-rate for the year isn't great, and won’t let him hit higher than .290 without some serious BABIP luck, Goldschmidt cut his K-rate from 24% to 20.5% from the first to second half last year (his BB% also increased 1.5% from first to second half)
- 30th in OPS - As a 24 year old he was the youngest player in the top 30
- Legs - He racked up 18 SB last year

There are other stats as well, but the general picture is of a young emerging power hitter who should put up very solid 1B numbers and be right around the top 5 1B in fantasy.

Cons:
- Limited Power Last Year - He only hit 20 HR last year in nearly a full season
- K's - Goldschmidt still strikes out a lot (33rd), and if you look at the names right around his in K%, you’re hard pressed to find guys who batted north of his .286. The chances he’ll repeat that avg. are slim unless his K% improves
- Legs? - Can you really count on a slugger like this to steal 18 SB again when he averaged less than 10 all previous seasons?
- Two Words: Eric Hosmer
- Track Record - Significantly, he hasn't put up those lofty projected numbers yet – if he had, it would be a lot easier to project him to do it again!

To me, this is a case of fantasy group think: some projections and pundits have this guy breaking out in a monster way, and everyone jumps on the bandwagon, which in turn causes more people to proclaim his monster campaign is nigh, which in turn causes even more people to jump on the wagon…rinse and repeat. This happened last year with Eric Hosmer, a similarly unproven player who ended up being a drag on every team he was on.

Here’s the thing: consider this handful of players who are being drafted after Goldscmhidt on Mock Draft Central: Adam Jones, Josh Hamilton, Giancarlo Stanton, David Wright, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Jose Reyes, Dustin Pedroia. These are ALL guys who put up solid numbers year in and year out – they are proven, and they are being drafted in the first three rounds because of credibility and reliability. Goldschmidt has neither, but he does have a lot more hype! I guess I’m the exception to many out there, because I wouldn't draft Goldshmidt ahead of any of these guys.


YOUR ANSWER! >>

In summary, we have a young power hitter who did some special things last year, and could be on the verge of a true breakout, but has yet to truly justify his draft position / ranking. If Goldschmidt is being taken off the board in the 2nd round, I would definitely pass. If he gets to the 4th or 5th, then he could provide nice value, but even there you’re still banking on a guy to get to a level he has never been at before!


Hope this was helpful and thanks for your submission!

- The RotoBaller Staff




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zac Gallen7 hours ago

Gets Opening Day Nod
Nolan Schanuel8 hours ago

Injury Isn't Serious
Isaiah Stewart9 hours ago

Injured Against Boston
Duncan Robinson9 hours ago

Doesn't Return On Monday
Jackson Chourio9 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Anthony Davis9 hours ago

Cleared To Meet Atlanta
Blake Snell10 hours ago

Heading To The Giants
Onyeka Okongwu10 hours ago

To Return On Monday
Bryce McGowens11 hours ago

Unavailable For Tuesday
Tyus Jones11 hours ago

Won't Play On Tuesday
Deni Avdija11 hours ago

Unavailable For Tuesday
Nick Martinez11 hours ago

To Open The Year In The Rotation
OG Anunoby11 hours ago

Set For Multi-Game Absence
Kyle Kuzma11 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday
Luka Doncic11 hours ago

Considered Probable For Tuesday
Matt McLain11 hours ago

Scratched With Shoulder Soreness
Bilal Coulibaly11 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of Season
Kenley Jansen11 hours ago

Scheduled To Make Four More Spring Appearances
Jackson Chourio11 hours ago

"In The Mix" For Roster Spot
Rudy Gobert11 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Scoot Henderson11 hours ago

Returns To Starting Unit Without Restrictions
Matisse Thybulle12 hours ago

Available Again On Monday
Jerami Grant12 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Monday
Lauri Markkanen12 hours ago

Returns To Action On Monday
Alex Caruso12 hours ago

Ready To Roll Monday
Coby White12 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Kristaps Porzingis12 hours ago

Returns To Celtics Lineup
Jaylen Brown12 hours ago

Ready To Go On Monday
Jayson Tatum12 hours ago

Won't Play Against Detroit
Teuvo Teravainen12 hours ago

Misses Second Straight Game
Joshua Dobbs12 hours ago

49ers Reach Agreement With Joshua Dobbs
TOR13 hours ago

Mitch Marner To Miss At Least Two More Games
Jacob Markstrom13 hours ago

Could Return This Weekend
Rico Dowdle13 hours ago

Staying With Cowboys
Mikhail Sergachev13 hours ago

Skates On Monday
Dustin Wolf13 hours ago

Between The Pipes Monday
New Orleans Saints13 hours ago

Saints Expected To Sign Chase Young
Alexander Mattison13 hours ago

Signing With Raiders
DJ LeMahieu14 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Opening Day
Buffalo Bills15 hours ago

Taron Johnson Re-Signs With Bills On Three-Year Deal
José Urquidy15 hours ago

Jose Urquidy Has Forearm Strain, Will Begin On Injured List
Justin Verlander15 hours ago

Expected To Face Hitters "In The Next Day Or Two"
Corey Seager15 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice Monday
Aaron Judge15 hours ago

Likely To Play In Four Of Final Six Spring Games
Garrett Crochet15 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Nolan Schanuel15 hours ago

Scratched With Back Tightness
Dallas Cowboys15 hours ago

Leighton Vander Esch Calling It A Career
DJ LeMahieu16 hours ago

Still Pretty Sore
Aaron Judge17 hours ago

To Return On Wednesday
Jhoan Duran17 hours ago

To Begin Season On Injured List
Bryan Battle17 hours ago

Bout Ends in Controversy
Ange Loosa17 hours ago

Fight Ruled A No-Contest After Accidental Eye Poke
Ovince Saint Preux17 hours ago

Wins Split Decision In A Back-And-Forth Fight
Kennedy Nzechukwu17 hours ago

Suffers Split-Decision Loss To Ovince Saint Preux
Gerald Meerschaert17 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Shohei Ohtani18 hours ago

Cleared To Begin Throwing Program
Bryan Barberena18 hours ago

Submitted In The Second Round
Kyle Manzardo18 hours ago

Sent To Minor-League Camp
Jackson Merrill18 hours ago

Wins Center Field Job
Denny Hamlin19 hours ago

Emerges Victorious For Second Bristol Win In A Row
Alexander Mattison19 hours ago

Visiting With Raiders
Dak Prescott19 hours ago

Cowboys Restructure Dak Prescott's Contract
Dmitry Orlov20 hours ago

Collects Four Points In Big Win
Tyler Toffoli20 hours ago

Dominates Against Columbus With Three Points
Lucas Raymond20 hours ago

Pots Pair Of Goals Versus Penguins
Kaz Grala20 hours ago

Finishes 19th At Bristol Motor Speedway
Bo Horvat20 hours ago

Scores Twice In Losing Effort
Brad Keselowski21 hours ago

Exceeds Value In DFS At Bristol Motor Speedway
Pavel Buchnevich21 hours ago

Delivers Three Assists In Sunday's Win
Ryan Lindgren21 hours ago

Suffers Leg Injury Versus Islanders
Kyle Larson21 hours ago

After 5th at Bristol: "I Hope I Never Have To Run A Race Like That Again"
Chase Elliott21 hours ago

Earns First Top 10 Finish Of 2024
Justin Haley21 hours ago

Earns Best NextGen Short Track Finish for Rick Ware Racing
Ty Gibbs21 hours ago

Has Dominant Day at Bristol but Fades Late
John Hunter Nemechek1 day ago

Found Speed At Bristol
Chris Buescher1 day ago

Secures Top 10 At Bristol
Alex Bowman1 day ago

Late Charge to Fourth Masks Early Race Struggles
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Ran Well, But His Teammates Were All Better
Martin Truex Jr1 day ago

. Matches Career-Best Finish At Bristol
Ryan Blaney1 day ago

Fades to 16th at Bristol After Handling Struggles
Russell Wilson2 days ago

Still Considered The Starter
William Byron2 days ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Bristol
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Starts 19th At Bristol After Damage In Practice
Justin Haley2 days ago

Scores A Starting Position Of 32nd For Bristol
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Should Compete For The Win At Bristol
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

History Indicates Brad Keselowski Being A Favorable Bristol Play
Joey Logano2 days ago

Should Be Rostered With Caution At Bristol
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Is Tyler Reddick Worth Rostering At Bristol This Week?
Martin Truex Jr2 days ago

. Could Work As A Tournament Play At Bristol
Alexander Nylander2 days ago

Totals Three Points In Saturday's Win
Sebastian Aho2 days ago

Leads Hurricanes To Victory In Toronto
Owen Tippett2 days ago

Delivers Three Assists In High-Scoring Loss
Steven Stamkos2 days ago

Extends Scoring Streak With Four-Point Performance
Nick Schmaltz2 days ago

Records Three Assists In Win Over New Jersey
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Racks Up Five Points In Saturday's Win
Brady Tkachuk2 days ago

Sinks Islanders With Third Hat Trick
Pannie Kianzad2 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Macy Chiasson2 days ago

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Isaac Dulgarian2 days ago

Suffers First Career Loss
Christian Rodriguez2 days ago

Overcomes Early Adversity At UFC Vegas 88
Tai Tuivasa2 days ago

Suffers Fourth Straight Loss
Marcin Tybura2 days ago

Gets First-Round Submission
Justin Fields3 days ago

Traded To The Steelers
NHL3 days ago

Lukas Reichel Will Be In The Lineup Sunday
Cale Makar3 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Saturday
Zach Parise3 days ago

Likely To Return Saturday
Michael Gallup3 days ago

Panthers Bringing In Michael Gallup For A Visit
Mike Williams3 days ago

Panthers To Host Mike Williams On A Visit
New York Jets3 days ago

Jets Expected To Sign Tyron Smith
AJ Dillon3 days ago

Officially Re-Signs With Packers
Van Jefferson4 days ago

Steelers Signing Van Jefferson
Jakobi Meyers4 days ago

Raiders Restructure Jakobi Meyers' Contract
Jimmy Garoppolo4 days ago

Rams Agree With Jimmy Garoppolo On One-Year Deal
Gerald Meerschaert4 days ago

To Fight In Main Event Of UFC Vegas 88
Bryan Barberena4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Kennedy Nzechukwu4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Ovince Saint Preux4 days ago

Set For 27th UFC Appearance
Bryan Battle4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Ange Loosa4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 88
San Francisco 49ers4 days ago

De'Vondre Campbell Heading To San Francisco
Dallas Cowboys4 days ago

Leighton Vander Esch Being Cut By Cowboys
Michael Gallup4 days ago

Cowboys Releasing Michael Gallup
Kenny Pickett4 days ago

Steelers Sending Kenny Pickett To Eagles
Pannie Kianzad5 days ago

Looking For Redemption At UFC Vegas 88
Macy Chiasson5 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Vegas 88
Isaac Dulgarian5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 88
Christiaan Bezuidenhout6 days ago

Looking To Put It All Together At TPC Sawgrass
Eric Cole6 days ago

Rebounding Well In The Sunshine State
Brian Harman6 days ago

Playing The Dark-Horse Role Again At The Players
Matt Fitzpatrick6 days ago

Searching For Answers Thus Far In 2024
Sahith Theegala6 days ago

One Of The Tour's Fastest Risers To Start The New Year
Sam Burns6 days ago

Brings A Stellar Run Of Form Into TPC Sawgrass
PGA6 days ago

Sungjae Im Trending Up After Arnold Palmer Success
Jason Day6 days ago

Facing Iron Hiccup Heading To The Players
Tom Hoge6 days ago

Brings Strong Form And History To Sawgrass
Min Woo Lee6 days ago

Ready For Second Trip To Sawgrass
Will Zalatoris6 days ago

Working Toward A Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF