RADIO
Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.
As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge is strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. Nothing is going to come easily in September, but don't worry as we've got your power needs covered. Stats are through Aug. 30.
Identifying top power risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. We'll do the hard work for you, looking at the underlying metrics that influence a hitter's power: fly-ball, pull, hard-hit rates and exit velocity. Consider buying these week 22 power risers and selling these week 22 power fallers.
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Power Risers
Curtis Granderson - (LAD, OF):
This is a guy whose swing needs a bit of context, as he’s registered just two lonely hits over his last eight games. Of course, both of those cleared the fence -- but that’s not good no matter what you sprinkle over it. Looking at that little sliver of a week or so, he’s still rocking a 60 percent fly-ball and 66.7 percent pull rate, though his hard-hit rate is just 26.7 percent, with the bulk of his contact checking in as “medium contact” per Fangraphs (60 percent).
Now, that still leaves a good chunk of his contact checking in as “not soft”, but his two-week window with a 42.9 percent hard-hit rate and measly 7.1 percent soft-contact rate does look more appealing. His fly-ball and pull rates both sit above 60 percent still, which speaks to why I think he’s still a “riser” and still someone to buy. He’s a veteran and while he’s ridden his fair share of streaks in 2017, he’s still showing that uppercut swing that made him a 40-homer bat for the Yankees. He doesn’t have the short porch in LA, but the swing remains the same and a lofty HR/FB rate should follow down the stretch.
Yangervis Solarte - (SD, 2B/3B):
Solarte is now one homer shy of tying his career-high mark of 15, which doesn’t sound like a lot but he’s only had four years in the Majors and has only started to develop his power in the last two. The issue early on was a sky-high soft-contact rate (which hasn’t gotten much better), which can still be seen in his season-long rate of 25 percent (17.7 percent in ’16). He’s also only hit .238 in August (and under .200 in the last two weeks) with four homers after cracking seven alongside a .317 average in June (before getting injured), so why are we talking about him?
Well, that recent cold stretch may have landed him on several waiver wires. The thing is, I see a guy whose 40 percent fly-ball rate, 52.1 percent pull rate and 37.5 percent hard-hit rate over the second half of August. He’s already put it together for a big month before and he’s showing the underlying metrics of recapturing that power stroke once again just when fantasy owners need it most. Maybe it never comes to fruition again in ’17, but he’s worth a gamble for many in deeper formats.
Mark Reynolds - (COL, 1B):
Reynolds was a waiver-wire hero for several moons before dropping off with a .229 average and just three round-trippers in July. Luckily, we saw the pop come back in August (six moonshots) though his batting average was just .250 compared to the days where he was above the .300 mark. Of course, no one really expected that one to last. The point here is that beyond just lazily stating how five of those six August homers came from the 15th on, he’s actually shown drastic improvements in all of those metrics that we love to lean on here.
His hard-hit rate is the lowest of the bunch, at a measly 48.3 percent over his last 14 games. His pull rate is 58.6 percent and his fly-ball rate is 62.1 percent. While that early-season success came with more of a balance between a high line-drive rate and hard hits, now the fly balls are starting to take over just like his days of slugging 35-plus homers from 2009-11. That’s not to say he’s going to crush 10 dingers in September, but it also wouldn’t be surprising given his current form and his track record of being that all-or-nothing bat (that just so happens to play at Coors).
Power Fallers
Ryan Zimmerman - (WSH, 1B):
After turning in another spurt with nine homers over a 19-game span, Zimmerman has failed to log a single extra-base hit over his last 11 contests. He’s just 6-for-34 over that span, but does have seven walks to nine strikeouts at least. We’re not here for on-base percentage concerns, though. While Zimmy anchored us all with his wondrous start to ’17, we’re not that silly to expect that moving forward, but something would be nice.
His current 28 percent hard-hit rate over the last two weeks is being further dampened by a horrid 64 percent ground-ball rate. His pull rate is nothing special at 36 percent, but it’s the grounders that have me concerned. The 32-year-old had made a name for himself over the past few seasons with strong contact but exceptionally high rates of killing gophers. Washington is in a bit of an offensive tailspin right now and this guy is at the heart of it.
Kyle Seager - (SEA, 3B):
What’s interesting is that Seager’s end-of-season line will be right there with his 2012-15 form that many valued for its consistent nature. His April was just horrendous, though, but he’s done well for himself after the All-Star break. His OPS is up over 100 points since then (.723 to .835), it’s just that his quality of contact has plummeted lately.
The good news is that the 29-year-old has still been hitting a ton of fly balls (54.5 percent) over the last two weeks, but a 29.4 percent pull rate and 26.5 percent hard-hit rate has led to a poor 5.6 percent HR/FB rate. That’s a lot of crummy numbers before the word “rate” and I’m irate about it. Sigh. But really, he’s cleared 100 mph with his exit velocity just twice since Aug. 12, and neither of those were lifted with a launch angle greater than 10 degrees (8.1, -9.5). He’s been talented for a while so I like to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I’d be fine scooping a hot bat down the stretch for him if you haven’t already moved along.
Buster Posey - (SF, C/1B):
It’s unfair to pick on his two-week sample because he’s missed a few games with a thumb injury, so let’s look at his body of work since last homering on Aug. 8: 12-for-51 (.235) with three doubles, two runs scored and three RBIs. It’s not what you want. Even that aforementioned Aug. 8 long ball only traveled 358 feet -- it was no mammoth blast.
He’s not completely lost at the plate -- those three doubles were all legitimate ropes between 101-105 mph -- but two of them came at that danged AT&T Park of his, where would-be homers elsewhere love turning in doubles. But this is mostly about his launch angles, as his 68.2 percent ground-ball rate over the timespan we’re talking about has seen him barely crack the 20-degree mark with his trajectories. No one is moving on from Posey in this world of largely terrible performances behind the dish, but those of you in leagues where you can move him still might want to test the waters.
