RADIO
The first week of the playoffs is in the books for some, while the action will be kicking off this week for others. Everything is on the line now so making the right roster moves is critical, as one mistake has the potential to spoil your championship aspirations.
There is no time to waste, so let's take a look at a new batch of players that you will want to keep a particularly close eye on, as well as check on the progress of the players that were causing problems last week.
Let's get to it.
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Heed the Warning Signs
Kirk Cousins (QB, WASH) – Low-Medium Warning Level
It has been an up and down year for Kirk Cousins, and the highs and lows and uncertainty surrounding his production certainly isn’t ideal during the fantasy playoffs. Cousins play has consistently tailed off since his last 300-yard game in Week 11, and in the three games played since then he has four interceptions to just five touchdowns, with a sub-200 yard passing game mixed in. This recent turnover streak is not an anomaly this season, as Cousins has thrown at least one interception in over half of his games this year, and has failed to go back-to-back games without throwing a pick since Week 3.
The health, or lack thereof, of the Washington Redskins offensive line has played a large role in Cousins’ declining stats. He has been sacked at least twice for four games in a row, with 12 sacks coming in the last three games alone. Cousins has also been without his two of his top weapons in tight end Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson for several weeks. Everyone knows what Reed can do when healthy, and Thompson had been playing so well this season that he was the team’s leading receiver before he was injured. Outside of Jamison Crowder, the Redskins haven’t really had a pass catcher step up as a consistent enough receiver to help elevate Cousins production in any way. Cousins can easily throw for 300 yards and then some in any given game, but with the bottom falling out for the Redskins, the situation isn’t at all encouraging for this to happen any time soon.
DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN) – Medium-High Warning Level
The Tennessee Titans announced that DeMarco Murray will continue to be the team’s lead back heading in to Week 15, which generates concern for fantasy owners that Murray’s status as the lead dog in the backfield is even in question. Although he continues to out-snap fellow backfield mate Derrick Henry by a fairly large margin, the touches have been much closer than many think, and Henry has been far more productive in his time on the field as of late. With both backs receiving just about the same amount of rushes over the past four games, Henry has out rushed Murray 240 yards to 119 with Murray’s last rushing score coming in Week 12, while Henry has now scored in back to back games. While Henry’s 50 yards per game this season isn’t stellar, he is topping Murray’s 42.5 ypg, with Murray failing to reach at least 50 rushing yards in all but one of his last six games.
On top of Murray gradually losing work to Henry at the end of the year, Murray has seen a drop in productivity as well, or perhaps this is the reason he currently finds himself splitting touches in the first place. Averaging only 3.7 yards per carry, Murray has regressed significantly from his fifth-place finish last season, with inconsistent touchdown production and only one 100-yard rushing game all year. Fortunately, Murray has continued to be more active than Henry in the passing game, and these passing stats have actually provided substantial support to his otherwise faltering production. But even with this boost, Murray has failed to reach double digit fantasy points in his past two games even in PPR scoring formats, and owners will hope that an easing up of his schedule will help Murray put up meaningful numbers to close out the season.
Mike Evans (WR, TB) – Low Warning Level
Mike Evans had his second worst fantasy game of the season in Week 14 with just 25 yards on two catches (he caught one pass for 13 yards in Week 9), and has not been able to come anywhere near the production from his top three finish last year. Currently sitting at the WR26 overall, Evans has suffered greatly from poor, inconsistent quarterback play throughout the course of the season. With a 45% catch rate over his last four matchups, Evans’ yardage has decreased for four straight weeks, and he has been held to less than 35 yards in two of those games. His last score was way back in Week 7, despite quite a few favorable matchups against some of the worst ranked passing defenses in the league. In the past two games, Evans has failed to haul in more than two catches in either contest, which means that owners in PPR leagues haven’t been receiving much production either.
Despite a relatively solid year from DeSean Jackson, Evans is by far the most reliable receiver on the Buccaneers’ roster, but his targets have also declined in his past four games. Before his Week 11 suspension, Evans saw less than seven targets only one time, but that has happened twice in the four games since. Evans’ drop off has come at the worst possible time for owners, as it will be very difficult to sit him, but even harder to trust him during the playoff stretch as well.
Vernon Davis (TE, WAS) - High Warning Level
Vernon Davis has been the Washington Redskins’ unquestioned TE1 for the past six weeks with Jordan Reed out, but unfortunately his production has not reflected this status. Reed has now missed six full games to this point, and initially Davis was playing well, with over 60 yards in three straight games on a whopping 28 targets. His production has tailed off considerably in the three weeks since though, and he hasn’t been able to reach 60 yards in any one of those matchups, and has also had his targets chopped in half down to 10. Before scoring in a Week 14 loss to the Chargers, Davis had gone nine games without a touchdown, and he even went completely catch-less on one target in Week 12.
Because the Redskins offensive line has been decimated with injuries for the majority of the second half of the season, primary blocking tight end Niles Paul has stumbled on more playing time in the past four weeks. Although Paul’s increase in snaps hasn’t coincided with a drop for Davis, Paul has registered seven catches to Davis’ four over the past three weeks. The Redskins have struggled to put together a string of quality offensive games, and Davis’ numbers will likely continue to be a product of this declining offense, even with Reed being moved to season-ending IR. With only two touchdowns all season, Davis isn’t even a great touchdown-or-bust option right now. All of this makes Davis very untrustworthy for the stretch run, and streaming tight ends might be the best choice if you are looking for production that can help you win the championship in the next couple of weeks.
Updates From Last Week
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL) – Higher Warning Level Than Last Week
Matt Ryan had a really rough game last week, throwing one interception to end the first half, one to open the second half, and one more on the next drive for good measure. While Ryan did manage to throw one touchdown, this marks the third week in a row that he failed to throw multiple touchdown passes, and this is the eighth time this has happened this season. It appears that not only has Matt Ryan regressed from his MVP form, but he might be playing through one of the worst stretches of his career in general. Unless you are completely out of alternative options, Ryan and his inconsistency might be best suited on your bench for the rest of the year.
Carlos Hyde (RB, SF) – Lower Warning Level Than Last Week
Carlos Hyde was able to find the end zone for the first time since Week 6 on a two-yard rush, and was otherwise solid in one of his more productive performances the year. Hyde averaged over five ypc for the first time since Week 10, and continued to stake his claim as the lead back as rookie Matt Breida struggled with just 2.5 ypc. With Jimmy Garoppolo under center there is hope for the 49ers offense, and Hyde could slot in as a respectable flex option or more if he can stay on track.
Golden Tate (WR, DET) – Same Warning Level as Last Week
Matthew Stafford was active last week, and Golden Tate boomed in Week 14 catching eight passes for 85 yards, with his first touchdown reception since Week 10. Fortunately for Tate, he is playing with one of the most resilient quarterbacks in the league, and with the Lions still trying to sneak into the playoffs they will continue to play aggressively, which bodes well for Tate’s potential production to close out the season.
Jared Cook (TE, OAK) – Same Warning Level as Last Week
Jared Cook found the end zone for the first time in nine games, and had his best game since Week 9, with 75 yards on five catches. While this game was certainly encouraging, it isn’t certain that he can sustain this type of production for the rest of the season, although it will help fantasy owners feel just a bit better about his ability to contribute during the fantasy playoffs. Cook has a relatively favorable matchup with the Cowboys in Week 15 though, and there is a chance that he could reward owners willing to take the risk and roll him out for another week.
