RADIO
Now that we have made it through all of the bye weeks and all of the healthy players on your roster will be available for the home stretch, the decisions about who to start and what players it might finally be time to give up on becomes even more difficult.
This is compounded by the fact that each decision is so critical at this point because one loss could, if even distantly, end your fantasy season prematurely.
As you make your late season push for the playoffs, here are some players to keep a close eye on in the coming weeks. We will also circle back and look at the players who were sending out ominous signals last week.
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Heed the Warning Signs
Derek Carr (QB, OAK) – High Warning Level
Despite starting off relatively well with five touchdown passes in his first two games, Derek Carr has offered owners very little this season. Outside of one boom game where he passed for over 400 yards and threw three touchdowns, Carr’s fantasy production has dropped off considerably from the career year he had last season. Through nine games played last year, Carr had already thrown for 17 touchdowns with 2,700 yards. This year in nine games Carr has only tossed 14 scores, and has failed to throw more than one touchdown in all but three outings. He has also thrown eight interceptions so far this year, after only throwing six all of last season. Carr has never been much of a rushing threat, so there won’t be any supplemental rushing yards or touchdowns coming to save the day anytime soon either.
It is obvious that, for whatever reason, the 2017 Oakland Raiders are an unproductive shell of the team they were last year. While the defense wasn’t outright stopping many teams, they were giving up the sixth fewest total yards per game, and that ranking has plummeted to 21st this year. The offense has also regressed significantly, and there doesn’t seem to be much of a spark for either the run or passing game. Unless something provides this team with a shot in the arm, it isn’t all that probable that any big swings happen this late in the year either. Carr might still be competent enough to get you by with average production, but at this point in the fantasy season you need consistency with upside, and Carr isn’t likely to provide that for the rest of the year.
Kareem Hunt (RB, KC) – Medium Warning Level
Rookie running back Kareem Hunt has come back down to earth since his record-breaking performances in his first handful of NFL starts. After rushing for over 100 yards in four of his first five games, Hunt has failed to eclipse the 100 rushing yard mark for five straight weeks. His yards per carry has also been cut in half, dropping from a gaudy 6.3 yards per tote to just 3.7 in the past five games. His receiving yardage has also tailed off tremendously since week 6, culminating in a season-low 4 yards in Week 11, although PPR owners are thankful that he is still managing to haul in at least three passes per game. His stretch of consecutive games with at least 100 scrimmage yards was halted in Week 7, and he hasn’t reached that mark since.
Hunt is still currently averaging nearly 21 touches per game and doesn’t have a real threat breathing down his neck, pining to make the KC backfield a committee. Being the lead back in an offense that is not afraid to lean on their running backs is a valuable fantasy commodity, but it seems that NFL defenses have figured him out, for the time being at least. Hunt will likely continue to be solid though, but with the entire Chiefs offense taking a step back and trending downward since a hot start, the days of astronomical fantasy numbers can no longer be relied upon.
Dez Bryant (WR, DAL) – Low-Medium Warning Level
With injuries along the offensive line and running back Ezekiel Elliott out of the lineup for the first time in two seasons, the entire Dallas Cowboys offense has struggled. Even before these developments though, Dez Bryant has somewhat middled his way through the entire season, and has been more or less touchdown dependent for the majority of the year. Bryant has yet to put up even one 100 yard receiving game all season, and his touchdown drought has now been extended to four games. This lack of recent touchdown production doesn’t correspond with a lack of red zone work though, as he has lead the team in red zone targets both over the past four weeks and throughout the entire season. But with the Cowboys offense now finding it difficult to move the ball down the field with much efficiency, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that even those precious red zone targets start to fade as well.
Bryant and Dak Prescott have had difficulties connecting on the long ball, and it seems that his chemistry with the quarterback is still missing something. Without many other consistent receiving threats on the roster, Bryant will also continue to draw opponent’s top corners and much of the defense’s focus. If his numbers are going to get any better over the next few weeks, Bryant will be heavily reliant on Prescott’s ability to improve his play, which may or may not happen with Elliott not set to return until Week 16. Still, Bryant’s nearly 10 targets per game is currently fifth best in the league, and this volume is safe as he is far and away the team’s best option at receiver, but owners will need to him to have a legitimate shot at catching a touchdown every week before they can trust his production again.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, NYJ) – Medium Warning Level
Coming off of a two-week suspension, Austin Seferian-Jenkins came back to the New York Jets lineup and made an immediate impact, scoring a touchdown in three straight games. Although he was a tight-end darling for this three-week stretch though, his reception yardage was dangerously low, and should have been a sign of things to come. Still, he was one of the team’s best receiving options both between the 20s and in the red zone, and managed to haul in at least four passes in all of those games.
Now without a touchdown since Week 7, those low yardage totals are finally starting to catchup to fantasy owners. Even though his snap percentage has held strong, his targets per game have not been nearly as consistent since then, and he saw a season low two targets in Week 9. Coincidentally, over that same time span wide receiver Robbie Anderson has developed into much more of a consistent receiving threat than he was to start the season. While Seferian-Jenkins 16 targets over the past three games is not far behind Anderson’s 18, the receiver stretches the field and has clearly earned the trust of veteran quarterback Josh McCown. Seferian-Jenkins will continue to serve as the chain mover of the Jets offense, which is not as nearly as horrific as many anticipated, but without the touchdown production he will be a very risky play.
Updates From Last Week
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) – Same Warning Level as Last Week
Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys offense continues to struggle without Ezekiel Elliott, and in Week 11 Prescott turned the ball over four times, and passed for under 200 yards for the fourth time this season. This game also marks only the second time that Prescott has played a full game and failed to score either on the ground or through the air, the first since his first-career start in his rookie season. Even though it has been all bad for Prescott over the past two weeks, the good news is that the team’s left tackle Tyron Smith expects to play on Thanksgiving Day, which will provide a much needed boost for the quarterback who has been sacked 12 times in the last two games. Prescott is still far better than what is left on the waiver wire at this point, but even with Smith back in the fold, he will be a shaky start against an improving Chargers defense that picked off five passes last week.
Doug Martin (RB, TB) – Higher Warning Level Than Last Week
Facing a Miami Dolphins defense that gave up over 200 rushing yards in the previous week, Doug Martin managed just 38 yards on 19 carries, and added only 6 yards through the air. Just about the only good news for Martin owners right now is that those 19 carries signal that he is still the clear-cut feature back, although with the Buccaneers offense being as pedestrian as it currently is, that is only worth so much. It will be hard to trust Martin much for the rest of the season, but if his volume remains solid and he can show even a little something against a slew of favorable rushing defenses, he might find some flex utility late in the year.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC) – Lower Warning Level Than Last Week
After going eight games without scoring a touchdown, Keenan Allen caught 10 passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns, in the first half. Both he and the Chargers offense got back on track in a major way, as he didn’t even need the fourth quarter to rack up 159 receiving yards, a total that he failed to reach in his last three games combined. This was the game that fantasy owners needed to restore the faith, and with four of his final six games coming against pass defenses ranked among the bottom 10 teams in the league, could provide a glimmer of insight into how Allen could potentially close out the season.
Cameron Brate (TE, TB) – Higher Warning Level Than Last Week
For the third straight week, Cameron Brate caught just one pass, and in those three games combined he has only accumulated 31 total yards. While quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick certainly played better this week than he did in Week 10, this didn’t translate into any kind of success for Brate, as he watched counterpart O. J. Howard turn his red zone target into a score. At this point, it is probable that owners can find better weekly streaming options at tight end on the wire. With Brate’s production being far from reliable and every game counting more than the last this late in the fantasy season, cutting ties may be the best option, especially since he will continue to be without Winston for at least a couple more weeks.
