4 years agoIn 2020, Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler had a much better season for the Phillies than he did for his fantasy managers. He posted an elite ERA (2.92) but generated very few strikeouts (18.4%). This was a big drop-off from his career mark of 22.8% strikeouts, but it is a perplexing number given that he posted career bests in swinging-strike rate (10.8%) and zone-contact rates (84.4%). He threw strikes at the lowest rate of his career (42.9%) but somehow achieved an elite 5.6% walk rate (another career best). It would seem that Wheeler benefitted massively from a ground-ball rate (55.9%) that sits 8.5% above his career average. Last year, 58% of his pitches were four-seamers or sliders, two pitches that are not known to generate ground balls, so add this to the list of confusion his 2020 campaign created. All of this came in just 71 innings of work, so randomness is to be expected. Given that Wheeler's stuff did not change in 2020, it seems wise to weigh his 2018 and 2019 numbers much more heavily than in 2020. Doing that would yield an expectation of an ERA in the mid-3.00s with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and a good walk rate. He will still be pitching in home run-happy Citizens Bank Park and the upside is pretty low, but his odd 2020 season has sent his draft stock plummeting. You may be able to snag Wheeler after the 100th pick of your draft, which would make him a really nice value for 2021.--Jon Anderson