Zach Eflin 2021 Fantasy Outlook: Primed To Lower His ERA Again?
3 years agoPhiladelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zach Eflin had a banner year in 2020, but he's flying under the radar due to the shortened sample size. He's currently sitting outside the top 200 in ADP (205), but he's got a chance to outperform that if he continues his progression. The righty posted a 4-2 record, 3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 70:15 K:BB ratio across 59 innings. His ERA -- the first time he's had a sub-4.00 mark in his career -- was supported by a 3.39 FIP and a 3.23 xFIP. In addition to that, he posted career-bests in K/BB ratio (4.67), strikeout rate (28.6%), ground-ball rate (48.4%) and hard-hit rate (32.7%). Increased usage of his sinker (21.9% in 2019 compared to 51.6% in 2020) and his curveball (13.1% in 2020 compared to 5.4% in 2019) led to the jump in ground balls and punch outs. Batters recorded a .100 xBA and .130 xwOBA against his curve, his most effective offering. Eflin accomplished all of that despite a .347 BABIP, which can partially be explained by the Phillies below-average defense. He does pound the zone (87% zone-contact rate), which is above the league average of 82.8%, so it's doubtful he can get his WHIP much lower. He likely reached his ceiling in strikeout rate as well, which jumped 10% from 2019, and it seems unsustainable over a full season. We still think he's a safe bet to lower his ERA for a fifth consecutive season and put up solid SP4-type numbers.