RADIO
Steven Matz 2019 Outlook: Numbers Not Promising Despite Improved Health
6 years agoSteven Matz logged his most starts (30) and innings (154) of his professional career in 2018, sporting a 3.97 ERA. Matz missed some time at the beginning of August due to a mild elbow injury, about one year after he was shut down to receive surgery to remove a bone spur from his left elbow in 2017. His health throughout the majority of the season is a good sign, however, his profile as a big leaguer doesn’t point to a promising 2019. Over the past two seasons, totaling 220.2 innings, Matz demonstrated issues keeping the ball in the park with a HR/FB rate of over 16%. Additionally, he also had problems with control as his BB/9 increased from a solid 2.57 to a below-average 3.39 in 2018. Lastly, Matz benefitted from an above-average defensive play behind him; his xFIP of 4.13 was higher than his ERA of 3.97. A bet on huge improvement wouldn’t be wise going into this year’s draft. An ADP of 264 supports his fairly low value and limited upside in 2019. There are definitely better options with more upside that can be obtained later. Matz is best left on the waivers unless he can consistently perform as he did in 2015 and prior.
