2 days agoLegacy Motor Club driver John Hunter Nemechek will start 20th in this week's GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway after qualifying. This will be the highest start position that Nemechek ever obtained at the Alabama track in his Cup career to date. In two previous races at Talladega, Nemechek has two top-10 finishes with positive Place Differential. In five races at Daytona and Talladega combined in his Cup career, Nemechek has five finishes of 11th or better. Through nine races so far this season, Nemechek has two top-10 finishes and racked up positive Place Differential five times. Considering his PD upside from his starting position and history at drafting tracks, look for Nemechek to finish in the Top 15 and compete for a top-10 finish. With his salary listed $6,000 and under on both DFS sites, fantasy players should not ignore Nemechek as one of the more favorable value picks of the week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: Driveraverages.com
2 days agoIn GEICO 500 qualifying at Talladega Superspeedway, Joey Logano obtained a starting position of seventh. This will be the seventh time this year that Logano will start from the Top 10, but his lowest at a drafting track. In 30 starts at Talladega, Logano has three wins and 11 top-10 finishes while leading in nine of the last 10 Cup events at the Alabama track. After nine races so far this season, Logano has five finishes of 11th or better while also leading in six different Cup events. The driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford has led in every race at drafting tracks since 2023 and will be a factor based on his equipment and track history. Expect Logano to compete for the win this week and lead laps, as he normally brings plenty of speed toward superspeedway events.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: Driveraverages.com
2 days agoJoe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin will start 23rd for this week's GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway after qualifying. In 36 starts at Talladega, Hamlin has two wins, 16 top-10 finishes, and 434 laps led, which is second-most of all drivers in the field this week. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota also has six top-10 finishes in the last nine Cup events at Talladega while also leading laps at least once in each of the last eight there. After nine races so far this season, Hamlin has seven top-20 finishes, including two wins. Hamlin remains the only driver this year to have led multiple laps in every Cup race so far this year including the Daytona Duels and Clash at the Coliseum. With high Place Differential upside from his starting position combined with his track history, Hamlin is recommended as an overall DFS play to place in the Top 10.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: Driveraverages.com
2 days agoIn his first Talladega Superspeedway start driving for Rick Ware Racing, Justin Haley qualified 27th for the GEICO 500. This will be Haley's fourth start of 30th or better this year and the fourth-highest of his career at the Alabama track. In eight Cup starts at Talladega, Haley has six top-20 finishes, including each of the last five Cup events at the site. The driver of the No. 51 Ford also racked up positive Place Differential seven times at TS and captured his best career finish there in his last appearance (sixth). Through nine races so far in 2024, Haley has two top-20 finishes, which include Atlanta, another track that uses the superspeedway rules package. As his starting position is deep in the field and based on track history, Haley is one of the best DFS value picks of the week to consider for all lineup formats.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: Driveraverages.com
2 days agoFor the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, William Byron gained a starting position of 13th, marking the fifth time this season he will start outside the top 10. In 12 races at Talladega, Byron has four top-10 finishes, including both of last year's events at the site. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet is one of the most consistent performers at drafting tracks recently, as he is the only driver to place in the top 10 in each of the last four races at Daytona and Talladega combined. Through nine races so far this year, Byron has three wins and six top-10 finishes, including the Daytona 500, where he was the winner. In the last four races at Talladega, Byron ranks fourth in average running position (11.4), third in laps in the top 15 (531), and driver rating (93.3). Considering his top-notch equipment and recent drafting track history, Byron is expected to be one of the favorites to compete for the win this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: Driveraverages.com
2 days agoIn qualifying for this week's GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, Christopher Bell scored a starting position of 10th. This marks his lowest start position at a Talladega spring race since 2020, when he drove for Leavine Family Racing. In eight Cup starts at Talladega, Bell has five top-20 finishes with two inside the Top 10. The driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota also led in five of his eight appearances at the site in his Cup career. At drafting tracks, Bell has been solid in recent races as he has three top-10 finishes and a worst finish of 16th through the last five Cup events at Daytona and Talladega combined. Through nine races so far this season, Bell has one win and five top-10 finishes, including the Daytona 500, where he placed third and led 22 laps. With his qualifying position close to the front providing little Place Differential upside, Bell is best suited as a tournament play for this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: Driveraverages.com
2 days agoJosh Berry and the Stewart-Haas Racing team figured 2024 might get off to a bumpy start. That much is true. Berry starts 29th on Sunday and his average start and finish have been around the same (22.3 versus 24.3). Berry survived Daytona barely but did not at Atlanta. So, there is limited data here. However, the Ford does seem to run better at Talladega. He did gain track position at Atlanta and Daytona last season while only driving ten races at the top level. That place differential was +3 and +7. Berry is cheap from a DFS and betting standpoint. With several big "collections" expected, the driver simply needs to survive to improve on Sunday.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: NASCAR.com
2 days agoHarrison Burton continues to feel his seat get hotter as the GEICO 500 approaches on Sunday. The Wood Brothers driver did qualify 16th on Saturday. His best results are on superspeedway courses or similar tracks. See Atlanta this year where Burton finished 11th. Overall, his average finish in 2024 is 29th. That is worse than his previous two seasons. Burton has to survive and thrive. The problem is the No. 21 car has finished 30th or worse four times at Talladega with suspension or accident issues a recurring theme lately. Yes, the heat is on!
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: NASCAR.com
2 days agoHonestly, Ryan Preece starts from 11th for the race at Talladega. That is not a bad thing for the Stewart-Haas Racing driver. On this 2.66-mile track, it is a good thing to begin from outside the Top 10 typically. Preece has shown positive place differential at every track but one in 2024. The one time he started inside the Top 20 was Richmond and that was when his differential was a whopping -12. This causes some concern for Preece who has an average finish of 19.0 this season. On the other hand, Preece has drove very well in the Ford showing top ten stage results three times in the No. 41 Ford.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: NASCAR.com
2 days agoZane Smith will begin from the 30th position at Talladega on Sunday. That is not uncommon for the Spire Motorsports driver who has been 14th or worse during every qualifying effort this season. However, he did survive his way to a 13th at Daytona. This could be significant. Again, the 2.66-mile high-banked Talladega can boost a driver's position simply by dodging the big wrecks. If Smith can avoid carnage, unlike Atlanta, that will make him an attractive DFS option at the least. His long-run speed is slow much like his qualifying speed. That could be helpful.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: NASCAR.com
2 days agoMichael McDowell was the quickest among all qualifiers on Saturday with a lap of 52.609 seconds. The Front Row Motorsports driver was the only one who broke the 182 mph mark. That was good enough for the pole. However, finishing at the top on Saturday is not a harbinger of what may occur on Sunday. First, McDowell has never qualified better than 12th since at Front Row. Second, some fear his long run speed may be more middle of the pack which will cause him to lose time as the race goes on. McDowell could still make for an interesting Sunday but not in the way some expect.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: NASCAR.com
2 days agoCody Ware returns to action for his father Rick's team for the first time since NASCAR reinstated him after his felony assault charges were dropped last December. As with most of the drivers for backmarker teams, Ware will only likely contend if there are a lot of wrecks and he avoids them. He did have a string of three consecutive top 20 finishes in his last three Daytona races including a 6th in 2022, but Talladega tends to have far fewer cars crashing out than Daytona in recent years. Although he's been good at finishing drafting track races and will certainly be eager to prove himself again, he likely won't get a decent finish unless a lot of faster cars crash out. Recent history at Talladega suggests this won't happen, though, so he probably wouldn't be as good of a longshot pick here as he would at Daytona.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 days agoEven though Daniel Suárez won the previous drafting race in a classic finish at Atlanta and backed into a top five at Texas last week, don't expect him to contend in this weekend's Talladega race. His win masks the fact that Suárez is actually underachieving. His speed percentile this year sits at 43.32, which is actually the slowest of his career except for the year he drove for Gaunt Brothers Racing. With Trackhouse Racing having numerous future prospects such as Shane van Gisbergen, Zane Smith, and Connor Zilisch on its roster, Suárez likely feels the pressure to perform, which probably helped elevate him to the Atlanta win, but now that he has likely locked himself into the playoffs, it seems he has since grown complacent. Talladega is not a track that typically rewards complacency, so don't expect a good finish unless he dodges the wrecks.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 days agoRicky Stenhouse, Jr. has had a startling collapse since the middle of last year and this year he has been shockingly slow with a speed percentile of 30.83, which is slower than he was in any of his previous full-time seasons. However, if there is any track where he could turn it around, Talladega might be it. Stenhouse has become the millennial version of Michael Waltrip, a driver whose seasons live or die based on his drafting performances. All three of his NASCAR Cup wins have come on drafting tracks, and his Daytona 500 win did come with the NextGen car. Stenhouse has made an on-track pass for the lead in seven of the fourteen NextGen drafting races but didn't do so in either race this season. Regardless, he contends often enough that he is probably undervalued by oddsmakers, likely making him a solid dark horse for the GEICO 500.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 days agoAfter selling his Live Fast Motorsports charter to Spire Motorsports last year, BJ McLeod has dropped back to a partial schedule but he continues to enter the races on drafting tracks because those are the only tracks where he realistically could get a decent finish with his team's underfunded equipment. McLeod has been generally good at avoiding crashes, but whether he can get a decent finish is almost entirely dependent on whether most of the field crashes out or not, and that is difficult to predict. Signs point to no because fewer cars tend to crash out at Talladega than Daytona. In the four Talladega NextGen races, there were only 26 crash or DVP DNFs for an average of 6.5 per race. Given that trend, probably too many cars will finish for McLeod to get a top twenty in this weekend's GEICO 500.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
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