Mychal Givens 2020 Outlook: Low-End Fantasy Closer
5 years ago2019 was wildly inconsistent for Orioles’ closer Mychal Givens. A rough April and May was followed by a strong summer ultimately capped by a brutal September. Givens finished 2019 with a 4.57 ERA, 1.19 WHIP to go with 11 saves, 86 strikeouts in 63 innings pitched. Looking more closely, his fastball velocity of 95.3MPH and overall SwStk rate of 15.8% were elite. On the flip side, however, when batters made contact, they teed-off. Givens allowed a 11% barrel and 39% hard hit rates as well as a .444 slugging percentage (with 12 HR) on his fastball and slider. This resulted in a mixed season of elite Ks and WHIP to go with a mediocre ERA, a 4.50 FIP and eight blown saves. Givens’ outlook for 2020 suggests modest ERA improvement with continued elite strikeouts, but limited save totals. Specifically, although he yielded just a .271 BABIP in 2019, his 3.62 xFIP, 5.4% barrel rate, and career 31.4% hard hit rate points to some positive ERA regression in 2020. With regard to saves, while Givens is a favorite to close to begin 2020, the Orioles may employ a closer-by-committee approach in order to, counterintuitively, increase his trade value. In 2019, Givens allowed a .252 batting average and .344 on-base percentage in the ninth inning versus a .165 AVG and .224 OBP in the eighth. As such, a lower-leverage role could enhance his numbers and, therefore, stock. In addition, the Orioles’ poor starting pitching staff, together with his likely trade ahead of the July deadline, will further serve to cap save chances. Owners looking at Givens around his ADP of 334 should anticipate elite strikeouts, an ERA closer to 4.00 with minimal saves making him a low-end fantasy closer.