RADIO
Matt Olson 2019 Outlook: AL 1B Breakout Candidate
6 years agoMatt Olson broke a lot of hearts in 2018. Although anticipating some regression, some hoped that his very impressive HR% from 2017 would translate into something more than just 29 HR in 660 PA in 2018. Alas, his 2017 HR total was driven by an unsustainable 41% HR/FB rate (highest among hitters with >200 PA since 2002), which predictably regressed in 2018. The good news is that he maintained a high FB% throughout the 2018 season that was comparable to 2017 and should continue in 2019. The bad news is that he will not produce at his 2017 HR/FB (no one could), but he should be above-average HR/FB and improve on what he displayed in 2018. This optimism is based on his batted-ball profile: his Exit Velocity on Fly Balls and Line Drives was about as hard in 2018 as 2017. He just elevated the Launch Angle on FB by a few degrees, which caused the drop in HR/FB. That is something that can be adjusted and would lead to more homers. With the first base position at historically shallow levels, Olson is a solid mid-tier option given his guaranteed playing time and potential to breakout in HR. Hitting in the middle of the Oakland lineup, he is a solid Runs and RBI producer. Look for Olson to provide a strong return on investment with a top-100 pick.
