6 years agoIt was a tale of three seasons for Matt Carpenter (1B/3B, STL) in 2018: a terrible April, a great May-August, and a terrible September. The slow start might be attributed to his recovery from a shoulder injury as well as an unlucky .190 BABIP, but that would not explain the poor finish. His overall stat line—.257/.374/.523 with 36 HR—made him a top-three first baseman in standard leagues last year, but his prospects for 2019 rest on the question of his HR output. With the acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt, he will head to 3B full-time and continue to hit leadoff, where he should score plenty of runs but have fewer RBI opportunities than a typical power hitter. The primary question is to what degree his HR output regresses from his 2018 career-year as his HR outburst in June-August were driven by unsustainably high HR/FB rates (i.e., 25%+), which was not supported by his batted-ball profile. Assuming he maintains his usual BB%, K%, and FB%, then his projected HR/FB roughly translates to about 20 HR in 600 PA. He will not hit for a high BA or steal bases, and his RBI are stunted by his lineup position. But the HR and runs will make him an asset, particularly in leagues where he is 2B eligible. Carpenter's ADP of 70 is lower that RotoBallers ranking of 40, which provides quite a bit of value.--Walter Cook