Jordy Nelson 2018 Outlook: Old And Busted...But Maybe Not
6 years agoI won't sugarcoat this. It's over for Jordy Nelson. He's done. The biggest question surrounding Nelson's career will be if he was ever really that good. He had five legitimate WR1 seasons from 2011-2016, all with Aaron Rodgers. Would he have been any good without Rodgers? It's a fascinating question. He certainly wasn't last year with Brett Hundley. From Week 7 on, Nelson failed to eclipse 35 yards receiving. Think about that for a second. Now, Nelson isn't playing with Rodgers anymore, but rather with Derek Carr, whose career numbers are tracking a very Blake Bortles/Joe Flacco like path. Additionally, we should be very concerned that we might be talking about Jon Gruden as one of the worst coaches in the NFL by the end of the season based upon the things he's been saying. Nelson clearly lost a step following his 2015 torn ACL. He adjusted his play style in 2016 and became an underneath receiver, relying on his rapport with Rodgers to succeed. On a new team with a far worse QB, at age 33, this may very well be the last season we see Jordy Nelson in the NFL. He's trending around the WR40, but even that is about 20 spots too high. His ceiling is low and his floor is you drop him by Week 3. Take a shot on someone else.
8/9 Update: I'm intentionally leaving my original thoughts above so you can experience my change of tune as I did. I'm coming around a bit on Nelson. I don't like to put too much stock into coachspeak, especially words coming out of Jon Gruden's mouth, but his reports on Nelson are glowing. The same cannot be said about Amari Cooper. If I'm down on Cooper, perhaps I am too low on Nelson. I'm starting to see a world where Nelson is the Raiders leading WR. 2014 Nelson is never coming back and I cannot envision Nelson as anything more than a weekly WR3, but that's a lot more than I thought of him a month ago.