RADIO
Jon Gray 2020 Outlook: Don’t Let Coors Field Scare You Away
5 years agoThe perception about drafting Rockies’ pitchers is being unable to regularly start them at home. But you shouldn’t shy away from drafting Jon Gray who has managed to buck the trend and has a better career ERA at home (4.36 ERA) than on the road (4.56 ERA). Gray continued that trend last year with an impressive 3.46 ERA at home and 4.22 ERA on the road. The key to Gray’s success stems from his slider, a pitch he threw 33.5% of the time in 2019 and which hitters only mustered a .224 WOBA against. This allowed Gray to only throw his fastball 51.3% of the time and even though it ranked in the 89th percentile for velocity, hitters had a .409 WOBA against it. The one mile-per-hour drop Gray experienced on his average fastball velocity in 2018 (94.7 MPH compared to 96 MPH in 2017 and 2019) contributed to his struggles that year and a 5.12 ERA appears more of an outlier than the norm. Gray’s career strikeout rate of 24.5 K% gives him a nice floor for strikeouts and he’s chalked up 10 or more wins in all his four full seasons. He should be fully recovered from the August foot injury in time for Spring Training and with an ADP ~240, Gray is a strong candidate to provide value above his draft cost.
