5 years agoWhile it is unwise to project
Ezekiel Elliott to match his 95 targets and 77 receptions from 2018, there is no question that Zeke is a legitimate three down back that will catch passes. On the ground, Zeke has led the NFL in rushing yards per game every year of his career. I am not concerned in the slightest about his 381 touches last season and the fact that he's touched the ball 1,003 times in three years, which includes a season where he played just 10 games. Despite his 381 touches, Elliott scored just nine touchdowns last season. Even if the Cowboys spell Zeke a little more and his touch count drops by 20-30, positive touchdown regression is all but guaranteed. It would not be surprising at all if Zeke pushed for 20 touchdowns. Given his guaranteed volume, three down skill set, involvement in the passing game, and the Cowboys' elite offensive line set to see the return of Travis Frederick, Ezekiel Elliott is my choice for first overall pick in fantasy leagues. Under no circumstances should he fall out of the top four. Elliott is as safe as they come. Wherever you end up drafting him, do so with confidence.
8/30/19 Update: While the foregoing remains true for Zeke while on the field, reality has set in at this point. It does not appear as if Zeke will be on the field Week 1. It is unknown how much time he will miss, but I have maintained throughout the offseason that if Zeke is not signed by Week 1, he will not play a single snap in 2019. The advantage with taking a shot on Zeke is he is one of the few backs with a clear handcuff that can be worth 75-80% of his actual value. If you gamble on Zeke, as much as I am anti-handcuffing as a strategy, you need to reach for Tony Pollard, likely in the seventh round or sooner. I would let someone else deal with the headache as there are plenty of elite options in the first round that we know are actually playing football.
--Jason Katz