5 years agoEmilio Pagan saved 20 games in 2019, with 96 strikeouts and just 13 walks in 70 innings. He ended the year with the closer job in Tampa but a February trade to San Diego, who already has Kirby Yates entrenched in the role, severely curtails Pagan's save potential. That said, his transformation from a 4.35 ERA/4.75 xFIP in 2018 to a 2.31 ERA/3.15 xFIP in 2019 has real backing, especially through velocity gains. Via Statcast, he added 1.7 mph to his four-seamer and 2.5 mph to his cutter, the latter of which he started throwing more often (from 29.5% of the time to 36.5%). The results followed: via Fangraphs, batters swung more often at pitches out of the zone (from 30.5% to 38.4%), less at pitches in the zone (77.4% to 73.4%) and swung and missed more (14.0% to 17.6%). All this is a way of saying that Pagan is a different, better pitcher now. Unfortunately, if he is to save a substantial number of games, that would require either him or Yates to be traded at the deadline, obviously too unpredictable an eventuality to consider during draft season. The ratio reliever has become a valuable player type in recent years, but not enough to spend a draft pick on in standard leagues in the large majority of cases. Despite his real improvement in 2019, Pagan isn't an exception.--Nathaniel Green