David Dahl 2019 Outlook: Slugger Has Massive Upside
6 years agoColorado Rockies outfielder David Dahl has only played 140 career MLB games, but has shown enough in that time to warrant a good amount of fantasy attention. In what has basically constituted a full season of plate appearances (508) in 2016 and 2018, Dahl has a .293/.341/.518 slash line with 53 extra base hits, 145 R+RBI, and 10 stolen bases. This was in between an injury-riddled 2017 season, but Dahl’s .859 OPS in the big leagues shows that he has the tools to be a fantasy mainstay.
A first-round draft pick in 2012, Dahl has been dominant at each level, culminated with a .963 OPS in 2016 while splitting time with Double-A and Triple-A. Hitting 14 home runs in 2014 and 18 home runs in 2016, Dahl has shown power to go along with averaging 20 stolen bases from 2014-2016. Posting a line drive rate above 20% throughout the minors, Dahl had a 23% line drive rate in the majors last season. Paired with a 37.7% hard hit ball rate, Dahl has done a solid job of making contact. A .311 BABIP paired shows that Dahl was a bit unlucky compared to his batted ball profile, but his 23.2% HR/FB shows that his 16 home runs in 271 plate appearances may have been a bit lucky. Dealing with a rib injury in 2017 and a broken foot in 2018, it seems that injuries are the only thing keeping Dahl from consistent production in the big leagues.
No matter what analysis we give on Dahl, there is one thing that supersedes all; he is projected as the cleanup hitter for the Rockies. With Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado in front of him and Trevor Story behind him, there is a good chance that Dahl approaches 175, or even 200, R+RBI this season. Considering that he is slotted in as an OF3 currently, Dahl has the opportunity for massive ROI during the 2019 season.