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Brandon Woodruff 2021 Outlook: Improved Spin Rate Unlocks New Level
4 years agoBrandon Woodruff didn't post a winning record for the Brewers in 2020 (3-5), but he did everything else fantasy managers look for. His 3.05 ERA and 3.29 xFIP over 73 2/3 IP were great for fantasy managers looking for ratio help. He also posted a K% above 30 for the first time in his career at 31.1, and his spin rate appears to be the reason why. Woodruff averaged 2,257 RPM on his four-seamer in 2019, leading to good but not great numbers (11.9 SwStr%, 60.3 Zone%). He upped his spin rate to 2,457 RPM last season, transforming it into one of the best heaters in the game (17.5 SwStr%, 62.7 Zone%). Furthermore, Woodruff held opponents to a .269 BABIP thanks to an IFFB% spike (5% in '19, 17.2% last season) that also seems connected to his spin rate. His fastball's IFFB% didn't change that much year-over-year (28.1% vs. 32%), but its FB% skyrocketed (31.7% to 46.3%). He also mixed in more sinkers, potentially helping his fastball play up. Woodrow's secondaries include a slider (17.6 SwStr%, 38.9 Zone%, 33.8% chase rate) and a changeup (15 SwStr%, 39.9 Zone%, 35.9% chase), both of which are more good than great. Therefore, Woodrow will need to retain his improved spin rate to earn his current ADP of 38.61.
