4 years agoSince his 2018 Cy Young Award campaign, Blake Snell has had trouble remaining healthy. He was limited to just 107 innings pitched in 2019 (left elbow surgery). Additionally, before the start of the 2020 season, Snell suffered from recurring soreness in the same elbow and shoulder discomfort. This resulted in the overly-cautious Tampa Bay Rays significantly limiting his 2020 workload. Snell threw over 100 pitches just three times in 11 starts. He also failed to record one quality start in 2020 having never reached six innings in any one outing. When he was on the mound, Snell was quite effective. In 50 IP, Snell posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and struck out 63 batters while walking 18. Though his overall barrel and hard-hit rates allowed were slightly elevated in comparison to his 2018 and 2019 campaigns, his 50.0% ground ball and 16.4% fly-ball rates helped mitigate this hard contact. His walk rate of 8.9% was higher than the MLB average, but it still represented a decline from his 2018 Cy Young Award and 2019 season walk rates of 9.1%. With a current ADP of 49, his move to San Diego should help Snell outperform this draft position if he remains healthy. The Padres will likely give Snell a much longer leash than the Rays. This will increase win, QS, IP, and strikeout projections. While Tropicana Field had a better home run park factor than Petco Park in 2020 (0.829 versus 1.171), if Snell maintains his strong GB and FB rates, as well as his 31% strikeout rate from 2020, he should not be impacted by the park downgrade. Managers willing to bear the potential risk of injury can potentially get top-5 SP production from Snell who is being taken as the 15th SP off of boards. He can provide managers with over 200 strikeouts, elite ERA, and (gasp!) high win and QS totals pitching for San Diego in 2020.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller