Aaron Civale 2021 Outlook: One Major Correction Needed Against RHH
4 years agoCleveland Indians starting pitcher Aaron Civale turned in an all-around solid 2020 season except for one very bad start to close out the year, but his tendency to live and die by balls in play finally began to yield some unsightly results during his second MLB campaign. Civale's ERA jumped more than two full runs from 2.34 in 2019 to 4.74 in 2020, and his 6.6% HR/FB rate as a rookie--a number that was never going to hold for the long haul--climbed to 15.7% last year. The culprits, rather surprisingly, were right-handed hitters. Civale pitched exceptionally well against both lefties and righties in 2019, but the latter group teed off on him in 2020 to the tune of a .940 OPS. If Civale is to set things straight in 2021, the key could lie in one pitch: his slider. Civale throws his slider almost exclusively to right-handed hitters, and in 2019 it served him well. The pitch drew a whiff rate of 28.6% and resulted in just two hits (both singles) on 124 total offerings. Hitters keyed in on it in 2020, however, as it was routinely driven for extra-base hits (.649 slugging percentage against) and its whiff rate plummeted to 11.9%. Provided Civale can reestablish the effectiveness of his slider to righties, everything else in his profile indicates he can continue to get by as a command-and-control specialist who rarely issues walks and induces a heavy dose of ground balls. This makes him a fine complementary addition to fantasy pitching staffs once the options with higher strikeout floors are off the board.