Mac Jones 2022 NFL Player Outlook: Small Upside, Reasonable Price
3 years agoSecond year quarterback Mac Jones is back under center for the New England Patriots. Last season he finished with four top ten fantasy finishes, he also had double-digit fantasy finishes as QB20 or lower. He finished the season as fantasy QB18 (279.75 fantasy points).
Per fantasypros.com he has the ninth ranked schedule for quarterbacks and his ADP #148. Draftsharks.com has his current ADP 11:11.
This season the Patriots acquired DeVante Parker in free agency and speedster Tyquan Thornton in the 2022 NFL Draft. But the new weapons won't matter if the Patriots remain a run first team. In 2021, the Patriots ran the ball the fifth-most of any team in non-garbage time. It culminated in the team running the ball 47.8% of the time.
Jones is capable. Last season he attempted 521 passes last (14th in pass attempts), with 352 completions, for 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and 3801 yards. He averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt. However, he lacks the floor of a "running quarterback". Last season he had 44 rushing attempts for 129 yards, averaging 2.9 rushing yards per attempt.
Jones' upside lies in his efficiency. For a rookie with at least 300 passing attempts, he had the sixth highest passer rating (92.5) and the second highest completion percentage (67.6). For his rookie season he had 62 deep ball attempts and 77 red zone attempts. He finished with a 37.1% deep ball completion percentage and a 60.8% red zone completion percentage. In a perfect world both Parker and Thornton will help with the deep ball completion percentage. However, Parker has not played a complete season since 2019, due to injuries. It is unclear when rookie Thornton will be available and last year's trio of Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers combining for an underwhelming 2139 combined receiving yards. Agholor and Meyers each had 17 deep targets (which was good for 30th in the league) while Agholor averaged 13.3 depth of targets and Meyers 9.6.
The Patriots have lost their offensive coordinator Josh McDaniel. Who will be the offensive coordinator this year is a mystery, with the choices seemingly being head coach Bill Belichick, Matt Patricia, or Joe Judge? None aspiring an overwhelming sense great strides for Jones.
Jones' enters the season with a moderate ceiling and a potential low floor. New offensive coordinator, run first team on a schedule that is projected to be the eight-hardest, projects Jones not to exceed his QB18 if not lower for 2022.