RADIO
Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Winning on the PGA Tour is no easy task and is one of the many reasons why we should always tip our caps for any player who is able to succeed on a yearly basis. Despite entering the Travelers Championship last weekend ranked 48th in the world, Chez Reavie had failed to find the winners circle since July 27th, 2008. However, all that changed with Reavie's blistering performance in Connecticut. The 37-year-old shot a 17-under par, outlasting Zach Sucher and Keegan Bradley by four shots.
History will forever show that Reavie captured the title with supposed ease, but those who tuned in and watched Sunday's round will realize that Bradley had a legitimate chance to steal the title away as the two entered the 17th hole. Trailing by just one shot, Bradley made a disaster of the par-four 17th, starting the hole with an errant drive before eventually three-putting from 17.5 feet for a double-bogey six. To make matters worse, Reavie was able to sink a 14-foot putt for birdie - which all but ended the suspense around the outcome. Reavie's victory moves him up to 26th in the Official World Golf Rankings and should give him some piece of mind for the next few seasons on tour.
Our outright betting card got frustratingly close but couldn't quite get over the hump. Both Jason Day (20/1) and Kevin Tway (150/1) gave the leaders a run for their money but each had to ultimately settle for nothing more than a top-10 showing. Tway made a push up the leaderboard on Sunday but wasn't close enough within striking distance to finish better than a share of fifth place. Day, on the other hand, might have only recorded a tie for eighth place but was actually our closest call. The Aussie ended up salvaging the contest with three birdies on back nine to conclude Sunday with a 69, but it was his tumultuous stretch of three-over par from holes four to seven that ended his chances at the title. We have been lucky enough to capture three outright victories during the 2019 calendar season, so there is no reason for us to sulk over a little sour milk. Instead, let's keep our heads raised high and quickly get back into action at this week's Rocket Mortgage Classic.
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For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.
To see who the RotoBaller staff is selecting in the weekly 'One and Done' contest, click here.
Detroit Golf Club
7,300 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Poa Annua (With Bentgrass)
For the first time in 10 years, a PGA Tour event will take place in Michigan, as the Rocket Mortgage Classic heads to Detroit. While the symbolic moment of golf returning to the state should not be lost on those that follow the sport, it doesn't appear that most top pros put much stock into making the trip down to Motown. Only 11 players inside the top-50 in the world decided to give golf's new test a try and sponsors can't be thrilled with the turnout.
With limited information about the way the course will play, we will have to make some educated guesses when it comes to what style of game will be most likely to succeed this weekend. Originally designed by Donald Ross in 1914, the facility has had multiple makeovers over the years but continues to remain heavily tree-lined. Reports have come out that the rough will start the week at nearly 3.5 inches thick, which means players will need to make sure to find the fairway off the tee.
The greens feature a combination of about 85 percent Poa Annua and 15 percent Bentgrass and will set up to play quickly at between 12 to 12.5 on the Stimpmeter. Water will only come into play on four holes, but the entire venue has strategic bunkering throughout. Detroit Golf Club seems to be a plodders type track, but accurate distance off the tee will turn this into a birdie shootout. All four par-fives are scorable and even feature eagle chances for those that are willing to take a few risks. I'd be surprised if we don't see the eventual winner capture the title at 20-under par or better so make sure to target players who are considered birdie-makers.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Best Bets
#1 Dustin Johnson - 7/1
DK Price $12,000, FD Price $12,500
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 19.9%
There are a few things I want to discuss when it comes to why I am recommending Dustin Johnson for the Rocket Mortgage Classic and what it means for the actual construction of our card. I've seen these types of situations incorrectly described by a lot of people inside the industry over the years and want to dive a little deeper into the idea of value.
I've made it abundantly clear in past articles of how I dislike starting at or near the top of betting sheets. The reason behind this is quite simple but often gets lost in translation and confused with the idea of doing it solely for contrarian purposes. Two main issues happen when you start with a player near the top of the betting odds. For starters, you enter a region where the sportsbook typically protect themselves the most. Casinos know that the 'general public' will be most likely to back the favorites in the field, and historical data will show them the golfers who typically receive the most action. Mix that in with the fact that these players are the most likely to win and that the books hold around 150% of the money on futures wagers, and you start to see how it is almost impossible to find a 'fair' number in this range.
On the off chance that we are lucky enough to find the market yielding value near the top of the board, this is where things can become even more dangerous for our bankroll. I've heard both sides of the equation when it comes to the number of golfers recommended per week by some 'experts' inside the industry, but that frankly doesn't matter one way or another. The more critical issue is the amount of exposure we are putting on ourselves with our card and the long-term win percentage needed by the combination of our selections to be profitable over time.
To break that down into easier to understand terms, we are essentially building a portfolio weekly that needs to provide value. The unique thing about futures betting in golf is that there isn't as simple of an answer as there would be with straight wagers in other sports. The ranges and outcomes of how you can build your card are endless. You can take a more conservative approach and only include longshots - which, in theory, should reduce your exposure for a given event if you use some form of bankroll management for your selections. Or you could take a more aggressive route and build towards the top of the card.
As a general rule of thumb, I like to put myself in a position to win around 10 units on each golfer, risking no more than one unit per event. That is probably on the high end for total units won and the low side for win percentage needed, and I wouldn't have an issue with slightly deviating those numbers to fit into a range where you feel most comfortable. However, the problem with all of this is that disingenuous 'touts' often abuse the system and provide selections that are impossible to maintain long-term success on, even if they appear to be hitting winners frequently.
I don't want to call anyone out because I don't believe it is my place to do so, but certain people inside the industry are posting selections that would require you to hit a winner in nearly half of the events to come out even. It might look flashy with all the wins they have to date, but recommending eight players priced at 20/1 or less is not only irresponsible, but it is also dangerous for those who follow.
In order to make Dustin Johnson work as a selection this week, I will be decreasing my win total on each golfer from 10 units to 7.5. It will still leave me with a total of 1.49 units at stake for my six golfers I have picked (more than I care to have) and will require me to hit the winner of this tournament a little more than 19 percent of the time. None of those numbers are ideal from a long-term perspective and are hard to achieve, but I do have Johnson with a win percentage of almost 18 percent himself and have added five players who add more than four percent of value from my model. This is a challenging tournament to wager on and could be one where you justify sitting it out, but a new course that nobody has ever seen should benefit the player who is the best in the world, and I believe we see the American walkout of Detroit dancing to the Motown tunes.
#2 Bubba Watson - 40/1
DK Price $8,700 FD Price $10,700
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 7.2%
If you have multiple sportsbooks at your disposal, you should be able to find Bubba Watson above 40/1. I've seen him as high as 50/1 at some places, but Vegas hasn't budged with his price yet. I will be using the worst of the number for the sake of parity, but please do shop around for the best price you can find.
Watson has had an up and down season in 2019, starting the year quickly with a handful of top-20 results. However, he has faded in the last few months, failing to post a top-50 finish in his previous four tournaments. Volatility with Bubba has become the norm, but the 22nd-ranked player in the world has shown a propensity to play well on the tracks he likes while tanking the courses that don't fit his eye.
With no history for any player at Detroit Golf Club, we can only guess how Watson should react based on past experiences at similar designs and structures. The 40-year-old has played Donald Ross designs four times in his career, finishing 14th at the Northern Trust in 2015 to go along with three top-14 results at the Tour Championship. Obviously, those finishes at the Tour Championship need to be somewhat tempered because we are dealing with just 30-man fields, but it does provide optimism that Watson might find Detroit to be one of his happy places.
Since 2014, only Dustin Johnson in the field has gained more strokes on Poa greens than the 14-time PGA Tour winner, yet Watson's recent form has almost completely mitigated his ownership projection. I don't mind Kevin Streelman this weekend, but it seems absurd that he and Watson would be priced anywhere near the same value, and to make matters even worse, Streelman is projected to garner 20 percent ownership on DraftKings compared to Watson's seven percent. Consider Watson an intriguing pivot option in large-field GPP events and worth a shot at his generous outright number.
#3 Kyle Stanley - 75/1
DK Price $7,700, FD Price $9,600
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 6.2%
While I do believe Dustin Johnson will be the eventual winner of the event, Kyle Stanley is my favorite play on the board. Despite grading out inside the top-10 for me in every possible way that I have run my model, the American is only projected to be owned by about six percent of players on DraftKings. That is the sort of deviation that we can only dream of seeing because it allows us an opportunity to trust our math and do so virtually uninhibited to the rest of the participants on DFS sites.
Stanley is a premier ball striker that is accurate off the tee, brilliant with his irons and capable of taking advantage of courses because of his ability to score on par-fours. On top of all that, he has seen some of his best statistical performances when faced with Poa Annua greens. In his last 50 rounds compared to the field on the surface, Stanley ranks sixth in opportunities gained, 12th in ball striking, 13th in strokes gained approach, 15th in strokes gained on par-fives and just inside the top-35 when it comes to strokes gained off the tee and par-four scoring.
Stanley has been a little boom-or-bust recently, but the 56th-ranked player in the world has always fared much better at birdie events than during some of the more challenging tournaments of the season. I'd be shocked if Detroit Golf Club doesn't turn into a shootout and believe Stanley has the ball striking skills to make a run up the leaderboard and provide a contrarian golfer with immense upside. His 75/1 outright price is about 30 points higher than where I have it, and I believe we are getting one of the better values on the board with this selection.
#4 Cameron Smith - 125/1
DK Price $7,400, FD Price $8,800
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 1.9%
I'm not claiming this to be an accurate way to break down tournaments in general, but two players are severely mispriced when you consider their ranking compared to their outright number. One we will get to next, but Cameron Smith enters the week priced at 125/1 to walk out of Detroit as the winner, despite being the ninth highest-ranked player in the field at 40th overall.
I'm not a huge fan when that comment is made without concrete details to back it up because there are so many variables as to why a player might be over or underpriced. A golfers ranking doesn't quite tell the story of where their game is at, but we have a unique angle where this might be the weakest tournament we have seen in years, and Smith has proven to be a superb player on Poa Annua greens in the past.
The Aussie has gained the seventh most strokes in the field per round on the surface and also features the seventh biggest disparity between his expected value and actual output - gaining 0.715 more strokes per round on Poa. It is not a huge surprise Smith is being ignored on DraftKIngs with less than two percent projected ownership after failing to post a top-50 result in nine consecutive events, but a little deeper dive does provide optimism that the 25-year-old might able to get back on track at a venue that should suit his game.
#5 J.B. Holmes - 150/1
DK Price $7,300, FD Price $9,100
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 1.9%
A lot of the same comments said about Cameron Smith could be attributed to J.B. Holmes this weekend. Ranked 54th in the world, Holmes enters the Rocket Mortgage Challenge priced at 150/1. To put that into perspective, the three players ranked directly above him for the event have been given outright prices of 33/1, 30/1 and 55/1. The fourth person above that is actually Smith, who as mentioned above, is 125/1 himself.
Holmes' outright price doesn't come entirely out of left field after struggling with five straight missed cuts, but the American is another player who has excelled on Poa greens in the past and is a higher caliber golfer than those in his price range. Since 2014, Holmes has gained 0.416 more strokes on Poa Annua greens than other surfaces - which includes a victory at the Genesis Open earlier in the year and a ninth-place showing at the Safeway Open in the fall.
Catching players when they are out of form isn't necessarily a great strategy to employ for long-term success, but golfers such as Smith and Holmes are being too heavily undervalued in a field this weak, and I believe it is a mistake if we completely write them off because of a handful of poor results. Outright wagers and GPP selections are meant to carry some volatility, and both of these options possess contrarian value to provide you a big score if all breaks right for them.
#6 Sangmoon Bae - 350/1
DK Price $6,600, FD Price $7,500
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 2.6%
It has been a long road back for Sangmoon Bae, who was forced to spend two years of his athletic prime doing required military service in his native home of South Korea. Luckily, Bae was able to regain his tour card quickly after winning the Boise Open on the Web.com Tour but has struggled in his 16 events during the 2019 calendar season, missing 10 cuts and failing to post a top-25 result. While all of that should be an indicator to leave the 33-year-old on the sidelines this weekend, his recent form does provide some optimism.
Bae has made the cut in his previous two tournaments, finishing in a share of 27th at the RBC Canadian Open and a tie for 43rd last weekend at the Travelers Championship. The most encouraging thing for me is that the two-time PGA Tour winner has shot par or better in each of his past eight rounds and arrives at a course that should suit his game this weekend. Since 2014, Bae has had the fifth-best differential on tour in strokes gained on Poa Annua greens versus his expected value on other surfaces - gaining nearly 0.90 more strokes per round on Poa Annua.
I prefer to back the South Korean in the top-20 market or as an each-way wager because it does seem slightly outlandish to expect him to come out of nowhere to capture the title in Detroit, but Bae is a former top-30 player in the world who might be starting to find his form after his two-year military stint. It is difficult to get too crazy with players priced under 100/1 when we begin with Dustin Johnson at 7/1, and Bae is a proven talent that could make his outright price look foolish. I am willing to take a chance on him as a longshot and wouldn't be shocked if his betting number begins to shrink weekly as the 2019 season comes to a close.
DraftKings GPP Play of the Week
Kyle Stanley - $7,700
Dustin Johnson could have just as easily earned the title as my "Play of the Week," but it doesn't feel like much of a recommendation to take the player who is priced at $800 more than the second choice on DraftKings. I do love pairing Johnson and Stanley together for GPP lineups but will give the nod to Stanley so we have a little bit more diversity to this article.
(See above for full details)
My Top 30 Ranked Golfers For The Week
Key Stats: Birdie or Better Percentage 20%, Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 17.5%, Strokes Gained off the Tee 17.5%, Strokes Gained Approach 15%, Total Proximity 15% and Par-Four Average 15%.
70% Stats/30% Form
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
We will be back next weekend for the 3M Open.
2019 Head-to-Head Record (14-8-2)
+6.97 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets
|
Tournament |
Head-to-Head Bet |
Bet |
My Picks Finish |
Opponent Finish |
Result |
Total |
|
Safeway Open |
Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk |
1.00 Units to Win 1.30 |
MC (+2) |
MC (E) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
CIMB Classic |
Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway |
1.50 Units to Win 1.25 |
T19 (-17) |
T27 (-13) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
CJ Cup |
Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T18 (-8) |
T18 (-8) |
Push |
0 |
|
WGC-HSBC |
Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na |
1.00 Units to Win 1.20 |
T18 (-1) |
T54 (+10) |
Win |
1.20 |
|
Shriners |
Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley |
1.00 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
MC (-1) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
Mayakoba |
Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T41 (-9) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
RSM Classic |
Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
2nd (-19) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Sony Open |
Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T51 (-6) |
Did Not Start |
Push |
0 |
|
Desert Classic |
Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T34 (-14) |
MC (-8) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace |
0.70 Units to Win 0.91 |
MC (+4) |
MC (+3) |
Loss |
-0.70 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T35 (-7) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Waste Management |
Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway |
1.00 Units to Win 1.05 |
T60 (E) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.05 |
|
Genesis Open |
Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T9 (-7) |
T51 (+1) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Honda Classic |
Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat |
1.43 Units to Win 1.25 |
T59 (+3) |
MC (+10) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
Arnold Palmer |
Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk |
0.82 Units to win 0.75 |
T17 (-5) |
T15 (-6) |
Loss |
-0.82 |
|
Players Championship |
Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler |
0.75 Units to win 0.79 |
T30 (-6) |
T47 (-3) |
Win |
0.79 |
|
Valero Texas Open |
Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
MDF (+1) |
MC (+4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Masters |
Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T12 (-8) |
T29 (-4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Wells Fargo Championship |
Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie |
0.75 Units to win 0.90 |
2nd (-12) |
T18 (-5) |
Win |
0.90 |
|
Byron Nelson |
Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+5) |
T59 (-7) |
Loss |
-1.05 |
|
PGA Championship |
Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+8) |
T54 (+9) |
Loss |
-1.05 |
|
Memorial Tournament |
Jason Kokrak -110 over Kyle Stanley |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T62 (+3) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Canadian Open |
Ollie Schniederjans -110 over Nick Taylor |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
-6 (T27) |
Loss |
-1.10 |
|
U.S. Open |
Tiger Woods +160 over Rory McIlroy |
1.00 Units to Win 1.60 |
T21 (-2) |
T9 (-5) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
|
Player |
Event |
Odds |
Finish Position |
|
Matt Kuchar |
Mayakoba Golf Classic |
66 |
1 |
|
Corey Conners |
Valero Texas Open |
200 |
1 |
|
Rory McIlroy |
Canadian Open |
10 |
1 |
|
Chesson Hadley |
CIMB Classic |
110 |
T2 |
|
Dustin Johnson |
Masters |
12 |
T2 |
|
Adam Scott |
Memorial |
33 |
2 |
|
Ryan Palmer |
CJ Cup |
150 |
T3 |
|
Sam Ryder |
Shriners Hospitals |
80 |
3 |
|
Chez Reavie |
Sony Open |
80 |
T3 |
|
Justin Thomas |
Waste Management |
10 |
3 |
|
Tommy Fleetwood |
Arnold Palmer |
35 |
T3 |
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello |
Arnold Palmer |
60 |
T3 |
|
Scott Piercy |
RBC Heritage |
150 |
T3 |
|
Xander Schaufele |
U.S. Open |
28 |
T3 |
|
Lucas Glover |
Honda Classic |
60 |
T4 |
|
Brooks Koepka |
Byron Nelson |
7 |
T4 |
|
Jason Day |
CJ Cup |
13 |
T5 |
|
Sergio Garcia |
WGC-Match Play |
45 |
T5 |
|
Jason Day |
Masters |
40 |
T5 |
|
Marc Leishman |
Memorial |
66 |
5 |
|
Kevin Tway |
Travelers |
150 |
T5 |
|
Adam Hadwin |
Canadian Open |
70 |
6 |
|
Zach Johnson |
RSM Classic |
40 |
T7 |
|
Kevin Kisner |
RSM Classic |
40 |
T7 |
|
Webb Simpson |
TOC |
25 |
8 |
|
Jason Day |
Players Championship |
40 |
T8 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Players Championship |
40 |
T8 |
|
Jason Day |
Travelers |
20 |
T8 |
|
J.B. Holmes |
Safeway Open |
60 |
9 |
|
Gary Woodland |
Farmers Insurance |
28 |
T9 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Genesis Open |
30 |
T9 |
|
Shubankar Sharma |
CIMB Classic |
150 |
T10 |
|
Troy Merritt |
RBC Heritage |
250 |
T10 |
