RADIO
Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. What a weekend it was! Francesco Molinari held off the who's who of the golf world to capture not only his first Major but also the first Major ever in men's golf for the country of Italy. The Italian ended Friday at even-par and six shots back of the lead, but a six-under 65 catapulted him up the leaderboard and into fifth place. Paired with Tiger Woods on Sunday, Molinari was looking to become just the second player in history to capture a Major win when playing with Woods during the final round. The 35-year-old throughout Sunday's round appeared to be the calmest guy on the course, and it showed with his steady play, posting a bogey-free 69. When it was all said and done, Molinari finished the Open Championship at eight-under par and two shots clear of Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele and Kevin Kisner, who all tied for second place. Rory McIlroy, our pick to win, had a chance at the Claret Jug late but was not able to make enough putts to hoist the title, and Alex Noren, our top sleeper pick, ended the tournament in a share of 17th place.
McIlroy, and even to a lesser extent Jordan Spieth, showed us why we always need to search for value when constructing our DFS lineups and outright betting cards. Both came into the week under the radar and discredited, yet still, both had a legitimate chance late to walk away as the "Champion Golfer of the Year." It doesn't mean you are always fortunate enough to find the value that most are overlooking, I know I wasn't able to with Jordan Spieth, but what it does show is that we always need to do our due diligence and look into every player, even when most of the industry is all in agreement the other way. With the RBC Canadian Open on tap, let's take a look at value plays we will be targeting.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finkelstein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
And for a more in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's column, providing the best fits for the week's course.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
2018 RBC Canadian Open - Glen Abbey Golf Club - 7,253 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass
This week, the PGA Tour heads to Ontario, Canada for the RBC Canadian Open. And while we aren't getting the same star-studded field as we did for the Open Championship, we still have a plethora of notable names competing. Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood, Bubba Watson and Sergio Garcia are a handful of the distinguished golfers in the field. Jhonattan Vegas is the two-time defending champion of the event, winning it at 21-under par in 2017 and 12-under par in 2016.
One unique feature of Glen Abbey is the fact that there are four par-five holes on the course. Scoring on the par-fives will be vital, and all of these holes provide an eagle opportunity for players with enough length off of the tee. However, distance isn't the only way to compete at Glen Abbey, even if it is probably the most convenient route to posting a low scoring number. With it being a short Par 72, short-hitters can use angles on the course and get themselves into their preferred iron range. At the end of the day, though, Glen Abbey is a scorers course so the more opportunities you give yourself, the better.
Pick to Win
Dustin Johnson (7/1, DK Price $11,700, FD Price $12,500)
Dustin Johnson was a colossal letdown at the Open Championship and burned a lot of DFS lineups to the ground. But the good news is that if you are willing to go back to the well on him, he should be well rested and better adjusted than the rest of the field that got stuck having to play the weekend at Carnoustie. I am not a big believer that players who had to play long into the weekend are less equipped or prepared for the following week but what I do think is that when you give the best player in the world a slight advantage, it can turn into a massive gain.
Johnson comes into Glen Abbey having posted three top-eight finishes at the course since 2013, which includes two runner-up finishes. As an outside narrative that many may not be considering, the Canadian Open holds more value to Johnson than it would many other golfers. The American is engaged to Paulina Gretzky, the daughter of the great Canadian hockey player Wayne Gretzky, and the couple have two children together. Johnson is ranked first in the betting market and is the highest priced player on both DraftKings and Fanduel. If you do decide to place a wager on the American, there is very little else you can do from a betting perspective. From a DraftKings or Fanduel point of view, I think he makes for a great play across the board, especially for GPP tournaments.
Sleepers
Bubba Watson (22/1, DK Price $9,600, FD Price, $11,600)
The recommendation of both Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson puts us in a betting bind. In my opinion, we can play this two different ways. There's a path that we can bet both Johnson and Watson, but if we do, that's essentially the end of the betting week for us. There isn't enough capital for us to use, and we will leave ourselves way too exposed if we add additional players, unless they are super deep sleepers at a very large outright price. The second feasible path is to start our card with Watson. Johnson at 7/1 leaves us no room for maneuverability, and if we begin with Watson, we have a surplus of options at our disposal. Those are decisions that need to be kept in mind when officially putting in your bets.
Glen Abbey feels like an ideal Bubba type of track. While he has never won here, he has made all three cuts, including a runner-up finish in 2015. I love the potential prospects of starting some GPP lineups with Johnson and Watson. It leaves you a little thin, but there are enough guys at the low $7,000 price range to fill in a complete team. Players like Joel Dahmen, Bronson Burgoon, Keith Mitchell, Harold Varner III, Sam Ryder and Tom Lovelady all are feasible GPP choices. Watson ranks in the top 15 in his last 24 rounds compared to the field in strokes gained ball striking, driving distance, strokes gained on par-fives, birdies or better gained and greens in regulation gained. He is sixth in both DraftKings and Fanduel pricing and fifth in the betting market.
Gary Woodland (50/1, DK Price $9,200, FD Price $9,800)
Gary Woodland after his win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February got as low as 25/1 in the betting market during his next start at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Recency bias was fully baked into that number, but Pebble Beach was arguably a much more difficult field than the RBC Canadian Open. Woodland has been a bit all over the place since his win, which is why we see him at 50/1 currently, but the 34-year-old seems to be heading in the right direction with his game again.
The American has made his last four cuts on tour at substantially more difficult venues than Glen Abbey. Woodland tends to succeed at birdie tracks that reward distance, and that is precisely what we have this weekend. Woodland is ranked 6th in driving distance and 18th in greens in regulation gained during his last 24 rounds. He is the 10th highest priced player on DraftKings but only 15th in the betting market.
Keith Mitchell (100/1, DK Price $7,400, FD Price $9,200)
2018 has been the year of the rookie winning on tour. Austin Cook, Aaron Wise and Satoshi Kodaira all have picked up wins during their first season. So why not Keith Mitchell next? Mitchell has had a fabulous rookie campaign. He finished runner-up at Corales Puntacana and has posted three additional top-10 finishes. The 26-year-old has also made 17 cuts in 24 tournaments, including four of his last five.
In his last 24 rounds compared to the field, Mitchell is ranked third in driving distance, 10th in ball striking and 15th in strokes gained on par-fives. And maybe even more impressively, he is ranked 5th in DraftKings scoring over his previous 50 rounds. Mitchell seems to be ideally suited for a course that will allow him to hit his driver whenever he wants. He is the 36th highest priced player on DraftKings, 29th on Fanduel and 35th in the betting market.
Ollie Schniederjans (100/1, DK Price $7,900, FD Price $9,200)
Ollie Schniederjans has been awful from both a statistical and results-oriented standpoint. However, at 100/1 in this field, I am willing to take a flier that the young American will be able to find his game. Schniederjans has made 11 of his last 13 cuts but has failed to post a top-25 finish in his previous 14 tournaments. The former No. 1 ranked amateur in the world isn't long off of the tee, but he tends to excel at low scoring courses. He came T7 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, shooting a 14-under par and he finished T3 at the Waste Management Open, firing a 15-under par.
Schniederjans is going to be under five percent owned on DraftKings and is one of the most overlooked players in GPP fields this week. The 25-year-old is 22nd on DraftKings, 29th on Fanduel but only 35th in the betting market. Schniederjans provides the type of upside and low ownership that can help to win you a GPP tournament. In his last two starts, he has produced a T32 at the Quicken Loans National and a T26 at the Military Tribute at the Greenbrier. Those two results make me think that Schniederjans is sitting on a notable finish here shortly and a birdie fest course feels like the ideal place where it would happen.
Bonus Bomb
Seamus Power (110/1, DK Price $7,000, FD Price $8,200)
I considered J.J. Spaun and Tom Lovelady for my bonus bomb, but Seamus Power was the player I could make the best case for from a DFS and betting perspective. Power comes into the RBC Canadian Open at a 6.3% percent projected ownership on DraftKings, about half the projection of the aforementioned Spaun and Lovelady.
Power ranks third in par-five scoring from 500 to 550 yards. Three holes fall within that range, and these holes account for about half the total birdies at Glen Abbey. The Irish golfer also ranks 17th in driving distance over his past 24 rounds. Power came 10th in 2017 at Glen Abbey in his only other appearance. He is the 65th most expensive player on DraftKings and 43rd in the betting market.
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
Chris Kirk +100 over Jhonattan Vegas -120
Chris Kirk $7,600 price tag on DraftKings vs. Jhonattan Vegas $7,500 price tag
Chris Kirk 15.2 percent projected ownership vs. Jhonattan Vegas 7.4 percent projected ownership
We suffered our first head-to-head loss last week at the Open Championship when Kevin Na +105 was not able to beat Charley Hoffman -125. I didn't think Hoffman was actually in as good of form as his last couple of results indicated, but the former UNLV product had a fabulous showing at Carnoustie and posted a top-20 finish. Although not featured anywhere in this article, Hoffman is one of my favorite plays this week at Glen Abbey so let's make sure not to overlook him again!
As far as this week is concerned, Chris Kirk +100 over Jhonattan Vegas -120 is about as good of a value as you are going to find on the card. Yes, I know that Vegas comes into the week as the two-time defending champion of this event. But I also know that if these two were in a head-to-head matchup against each other on any other course, Kirk would be the substantial favorite given where both players are currently at with their games. Vegas is coming into this week with the same bad results that he had in his previous two wins, so it is tough to discredit him and claim that current form will be his undoing. But in a way, I think he is testing fate trying to find his game out of nowhere three years in a row at Glen Abbey.
In 2015, before his back-to-back wins, Vegas produced a 48th place result here at the RBC Canadian Open. This isn't a bad showing but it does go and show that the Venezuelan isn't immune to a borderline finish at this event. Kirk, on the other hand, did only provide a 70th place finish last year but was able to produce two top-21 showings in his other two attempts. Outside of driving distance, where Vegas ranks 23rd and Kirk ranks 91st compared to the field in their last 24 rounds, there isn't a key stat this week that Vegas surpasses Kirk in over that duration of time. Vegas is ranked 70th in strokes gained ball striking, 80th in strokes gained on par-fives, 75th in birdies or better gained, 133rd in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards and 90th in greens in regulation gained. Kirk in those exact statistics ranks ninth in ball striking, 45th in strokes gained on par-fives, 20th in birdies or better gained, third in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards and 12th in greens in regulation gained.
If you remove the narrative of Vegas being the two-time defending champion, it is hard to make a case for him being the favorite over Kirk. Kirk has made 11 of his last 12 cuts, including his last eight in a row. I think the American is an excellent play for your cash-game lineups at his $7,600 price tag on DraftKings and I do think he presents an intriguing GPP upside also. The line has been drifting towards Vegas, but I think that has more to do with the perception of Vegas winning this tournament two straight years. I'd keep an eye on this line over the next day, but any price that you can grab that has Kirk has an underdog will provide value.
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