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PGA DFS: Vegas Report - BMW Championship


Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. It took a trip to the Statue of Liberty for Captain America to get his shield back. Patrick Reed, who hadn't found the winners circle for 16 months, stormed back onto the scene with an emphatic victory at Liberty National Golf Club.

Reed got off to abysmal start on Sunday, bogeying three of the first six holes, but the 26-year-old was able to regain his composure and connect on multiple par saves during his back nine to help him hoist the title.

The success in New Jersey will make Reed difficult to ignore when Tiger Woods picks the final members of the Presidents Cup, but it is still tough to imagine how the 15th-ranked player in the world would fit in the U.S. locker room after the turmoil that surrounded him in France. Woods won't be announcing his four captains picks until November 4th, so Reed will have a few months to try and get himself into the top eight and control his own destiny. With the BMW Championship on tap, let's dive a little deeper into how we will be handling the betting card this weekend.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.  Sign Up Now!

2019 BMW Championship

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.

To see who the RotoBaller staff is selecting in the weekly 'One and Done' contest, click here.

 

Medinah Country Club (Course No. 3)

7,613 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

We are down to just two events to go to decide the winner of the 2019 FedExCup, and the players will have to take on the daunting task that is Medinah Country Club if they want to survive and advance to the final round.

A 30-minute drive West of Chicago, Medinah was initially built in 1930 but has undergone seven re-designs over the years. The most recent remastering came at the hands of Rees Jones in 2009, which included rebuilding 11 green complexes in addition to creating a brand new 15th hole to provide players with the ultimate risk/reward par-four.

Four thousand seven hundred trees line the behemoth track that measures almost 7,650 yards and will make wayward tee shots more penal than they otherwise would have been without the forest that surrounds the fairways. Water comes into play on five holes, and all the par-fives are reachable in firm conditions. Bentgrass will be used throughout the venue, and strokes gained tee-to-green might be the most important statistic of the week.

BMW Championship

I do have some exposure on the table when it comes to outright betting, but I'd prefer to write this article from a DraftKings perspective this week. I have bet four of the six options listed below - Francesco Molinari at 80/1, Keith Mitchell at 250/1, Rickie Fowler at 35/1 and Bryson DeChambeau at 45/1. Molinari's price is not a wildly available number in the community, and it would feel disingenuous to tout that as being the figure everyone has at their disposal.

We will go back to more of a betting approach next week, but here is my main GPP lineup I will be playing in contests this weekend:

#1 Jon Rahm 10/1

DK Price $10,900, FD Price $11,800

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 18.5%

I hate the idea of grabbing a 19% owned Jon Rahm to begin a DFS or betting card, but I am having some trouble ignoring him at Medinah. The Spaniard has had his fair share of issues closing during the most significant events of the year but has turned into a similar version of Rory McIlroy as of late.

Rahm has not produced a finish worse than a share of 11th place in his past six starts and has recorded six top-11 results in his nine career playoff starts. I have the 24-year-old priced as the second betting favorite at odds of 11/1, although that doesn't provide us with a profitable long-term wager if we decide to go down that route in terms of betting. With all that being said, I do feel like he is going to end up finding a way to breakthrough at the BMW Championship and am fine paying up to his heftier ownership. It is not like we are going to be able to dodge ownership bullets completely in a 69-man field, and despite the perception that nearly 20% should make him the most owned player of the week, he is still only projected to be the sixth most owned when all is said and done.

#2 Rickie Fowler 35/1

DK Price $8,800 FD Price $10,700

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 11.5%

I am not so sure I buy into this narrative that over 10 percent of DFS players will play Rickie Fowler at the BMW. I get he is a popular golfer and is priced extremely reasonably, but the American has not been posting the most desirable results as of late, and most people don't quickly forgive when it comes to recent form.

Xander Schauffele at $8,600 was a possibility, but Nagels Bagels asked for me to leave him alone, and I'm not really sure how the inhabitants of Xander Island will react if I tread into a territory I am not welcomed - especially after their recent Mosquito infestation. I also believe we could have paid up to grab Tommy Fleetwood, who quite frankly is only being left off the team because of salary reduction purposes.

Fowler's game has not been as crisp as you would hope, but the majority of his issues have stemmed from his poor putter. Before last week's Northern Trust, Fowler had gained strokes tee to green and with his irons in eight consecutive events, but a few bad breaks around the cut line and some suboptimal putting performances have made things seem far worse than they are. If nothing else, we know Fowler is one of the best players in the world with a flat stick in his hand, so I don't believe we have anything to worry about when it comes to him quickly getting back on track on the greens.

#3 Bryson DeChambeau 45/1

DK Price $8,300, FD Price $10,000

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 7.7%

I know that most people are up in arms over the Bryson DeChambeau slow-play scandal, but I do want to defend him very quickly. For starters, he is far from the only person who takes an excessive amount of time to hit the ball, and perhaps more importantly in my eyes, calculations are going on in his head to try and decipher the most appropriate shot. I'm not giving him a complete pass, but his time is spent more appropriately than some of these players who stand over the ball for three minutes with no purpose.

I worry ever so slightly that DeChambeau's neurons might combust with all the extracurricular activity going on off the course, but there is a game-theory advantage to be had if we believe the American can get himself reprogrammed in time for the BMW Championship. His 7.7% projected ownership is forecasted to be the lowest of anyone priced at $8,300 or above, and his ability to produce birdies makes him an intriguing option to consider in a no-cut event.

#4 Francesco Molinari 55/1

DK Price $7,800, FD Price $9,400

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 7.0%

Everyone will want to point to how Francesco Molinari is out of wack with his game, but let's take a more in-depth look into what has transpired with the Italian since his tumultuous collapse at the Masters.

Molinari has failed to post a top-10 result in his previous seven events, but when we look at his cumulative numbers during that period in strokes gained tee-to-green, it paints a slightly different image than his results would indicate. The 36-year-old has gained 23.2 strokes total (3.31 per event) but has been undone by his putter - losing 18.9 strokes on the greens in six trackable tournaments.

Molinari has always been a streaky putter, perhaps not brilliant, but his current display is far below the expected norm for what he has shown throughout his career, and it wouldn't take much of a turnaround for him to put himself in a position to compete with the way he is currently striking the ball. As I mentioned earlier, Molinari is currently one of my wagers I have placed at 80/1, but I still consider him to have value at his 55/1 price if you haven't invested in him quite yet.

#5 Collin Morikawa 55/1

DK Price $7,900, FD Price $9,500

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 9.9%

There is a chance that this will be Collin Morikawa's last event of the 2019 calendar season, but the 22-year-old managed to make his presence felt during his limited schedule. Morikawa made all eight cuts on tour, including a breakthrough victory in just his sixth event of the year at the Barracuda Championship.

It seems ridiculous to believe that the 85th-ranked player in the world is already being listed as a 50/1 option to win one of the most prestigious tournaments of the year, but that is precisely where we are at with the phenom from California. I can't quite condone getting behind him at a price like that in the outright market, but there is some upside to be had in a no-cut event like the BMW Championship. Morikawa has shown himself to have a fabulous game tee-to-green, and we will see if the rookie can pull one more feather out of his cap and get himself to East Lake.

#6 Keith Mitchell 250/1

DK Price $6,300, FD Price $7,000

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 4.6%

We are usually looking to get Keith Mitchell on Bermuda greens, but as long as we aren't dealing with straight Poa, I believe the American has a chance to get back on track.

During his past 12 rounds held at a venue over 7,400 yards, Mitchell ranks third in ball striking, fifth in strokes gained tee to green, seventh in par-five scoring and eighth in driving distance. Going as top-heavy as we did will require us to seek salary relief somewhere, and the 27-year-old is about as good as we are going to find because of his explosive game.

 

My Top 30 Ranked Golfers For The Week

Key Stats: Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green 22.5%, Proximity 175+ Yards 20%, Par-Five Birdie Or Better 17.5%, Ball Striking 15%, Scrambling 15% and Driving Distance 10%

70% Stats/30% Form


Head-to-Head Play of the Week

No head-to-head play this week.


2019 Head-to-Head Record (16-9-2)

+8.33 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament

Head-to-Head Bet

Bet

My Picks Finish

Opponent Finish

Result

Total

Safeway Open

Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk

1.00 Units to Win 1.30

MC (+2)

MC (E)

Loss

-1.00

CIMB Classic

Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway

1.50 Units to Win 1.25

T19 (-17)

T27 (-13)

Win

1.25

CJ Cup

Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

T18 (-8)

T18 (-8)

Push

0

WGC-HSBC

Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na

1.00 Units to Win 1.20

T18 (-1)

T54 (+10)

Win

1.20

Shriners

Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley

1.00 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+1)

MC (-1)

Loss

-1.00

Mayakoba

Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

T41 (-9)

MC (+2)

Win

1.25

RSM Classic

Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

2nd (-19)

MC (+2)

Win

1.00

Sony Open

Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

T51 (-6)

Did Not Start

Push

0

Desert Classic

Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T34 (-14)

MC (-8)

Win

1.00

Farmers Insurance

J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace

0.70 Units to Win 0.91

MC (+4)

MC (+3)

Loss

-0.70

Farmers Insurance

Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T35 (-7)

MC (E)

Win

1.00

Waste Management

Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway

1.00 Units to Win 1.05

T60 (E)

MC (E)

Win

1.05

Genesis Open

Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T9 (-7)

T51 (+1)

Win

1.00

Honda Classic

Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat

1.43 Units to Win 1.25

T59 (+3)

MC (+10)

Win

1.25

Arnold Palmer

Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk

0.82 Units to win 0.75

T17 (-5)

T15 (-6)

Loss

-0.82

Players Championship

Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler

0.75 Units to win 0.79

T30 (-6)

T47 (-3)

Win

0.79

Valero Texas Open

Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

MDF (+1)

MC (+4)

Win

1.00

Masters

Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

T12 (-8)

T29 (-4)

Win

1.00

Wells Fargo Championship

Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie

0.75 Units to win 0.90

2nd (-12)

T18 (-5)

Win

0.90

Byron Nelson

Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+5)

T59 (-7)

Loss

-1.05

PGA Championship

Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+8)

T54 (+9)

Loss

-1.05

Memorial Tournament

Jason Kokrak -110 over Kyle Stanley

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T62 (+3)

MC (+2)

Win

1.00

Canadian Open

Ollie Schniederjans -110 over Nick Taylor

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+1)

-6 (T27)

Loss

-1.10

U.S. Open

Tiger Woods +160 over Rory McIlroy

1.00 Units to Win 1.60

T21 (-2)

T9 (-5)

Loss

-1.00

3M Open

Lucas Glover +100 over Charley Hoffman

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

T7 (-16)

MC (E)

Win

1.25

John Deere Classic

Talor Gooch +100 over Beau Hossler

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

MDF (-2)

T26 (-12)

Loss

-1.25

WGC-St. Jude

Eddie Pepperell +170 over Keegan Bradley

.80 Units to Win 1.36

T51 (+4)

T61 (+12)

Win

1.36

2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player

Event

Odds

Finish Position

Matt Kuchar

Mayakoba Golf Classic

66

1

Corey Conners

Valero Texas Open

200

1

Rory McIlroy

Canadian Open

10

1

Brooks Koepka

WGC- St. Jude

12

1

Chesson Hadley

CIMB Classic

110

T2

Dustin Johnson

Masters

12

T2

Adam Scott

Memorial

33

2

Ryan Palmer

CJ Cup

150

T3

Sam Ryder

Shriners Hospitals

80

3

Chez Reavie

Sony Open

80

T3

Justin Thomas

Waste Management

10

3

Tommy Fleetwood

Arnold Palmer

35

T3

Rafa Cabrera-Bello

Arnold Palmer

60

T3

Scott Piercy

RBC Heritage

150

T3

Xander Schaufele

U.S. Open

28

T3

Tony Finau

Open Championship

80

3

Marc Leishman

WGC- St. Jude

66

3

Lucas Glover

Honda Classic

60

T4

Brooks Koepka

Byron Nelson

7

T4

Jason Day

CJ Cup

13

T5

Sergio Garcia

WGC-Match Play

45

T5

Jason Day

Masters

40

T5

Marc Leishman

Memorial

66

5

Kevin Tway

Travelers

150

T5

Adam Hadwin

Canadian Open

70

6

Rickie Fowler

Open Championship

33

T6

Zach Johnson

RSM Classic

40

T7

Kevin Kisner

RSM Classic

40

T7

Troy Merritt

3M Open

175

T7

Lucas Glover

3M Open

90

T7

Webb Simpson

TOC

25

8

Jason Day

Players Championship

40

T8

Hideki Matsuyama

Players Championship

40

T8

Jason Day

Travelers

20

T8

J.B. Holmes

Safeway Open

60

9

Gary Woodland

Farmers Insurance

28

T9

Hideki Matsuyama

Genesis Open

30

T9

Shubankar Sharma

CIMB Classic

150

T10

Troy Merritt

RBC Heritage

250

T10

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


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