Sam Ryder is apparently playing a different golf course right now (-12), sitting three shots clear of his playing partner for the first two rounds, Brendan Steele who sits in 2nd at -9. They will be playing together for third time tomorrow and will need to keep the good vibes going as in the thick Torrey rough lurks Jon Rahm who played his final five holes five under par. It is going to be a very intriguing two days of golf.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
Going into Round 3, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in R2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
Top Points Scorers
Highest Owned Golfers
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Round 3 Power Rankings
These golfers can all be considered for cash games or double-ups.
PLEASE NOTE: If you want the entire showdown cheat sheet, it's free to download here.
The Chalk Squad
These golfers should be the most owned tomorrow based on their performance so far.
$10,000: Jon Rahm's 50%+ ownership is appealing to try to fade him, but the level of golf he is playing at right now has us playing defense. His game is built for this course and he has been playing too well for too long to fade him at a course like this. His ball-striking superiority mixed with his incredible short game has him so far ahead of the majority of the field. He is consistently in the top 10 of DK points and fading chalk to fade chalk, just doesn't seem to work with Rahm. We will get different elsewhere.
$9,000: Collin Morikawa
$8,000: Nobody.
$7,000: Nobody.
$6,000: Nobody.
The Pivot People
These guys find themselves in the middle of the leaderboard. Their round did not go entirely according to plan, and we are banking on them to bounce back today.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim
$8,000: Nobody.
$7,000: Emiliano Grillo, Aaron Rai, Callum Tarren
$6,000: Cameron Champ, Lanto Griffin, Jimmy Walker (I see you Jimbo - that approach score is really high because Jimmy is really good out of the rough)
The Leverage Lads
The lowest-owned golfers who should give us the most leverage in a DFS Showdown slate.
$10,000: Tony (dry heave) Finau... what does the putter do? I wish there was strokes gained metrics on the North Course as he must be up there with a very select few to have made the cut putting as atrociously as he did for the first two days. After losing five strokes in R1, I'd imagine he lost another three today. If he starts to putt to his baseline, we should be in for some serious points in R3.
$9,000: Xander Schauffele has been known to make a charge up the leaderboard after barely making the cut.
$8,000: Keegan, Maverick, Hadwin, Rose.
$7,000: Mullinax, Hardy, Woodland, Smalley.
$6,000: Satoshi, Streelman, Barnes, Yu.
Round 2 Matchups
Update: We are 0-4 on matchups since adding it to this section (-2.59u)
I am betting each matchup to return half a unit.
- Justin Thomas over Si Woo Kim -150 (DraftKings)
- Thomas Detry over Wyndham Clark -103 (BetRivers)
- Harris English over Cameron Champ -143 (BetRivers)
Round 3 Matchups
We are going to bounce back in R3. Matchups coming later tonight.
Good luck and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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