X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump - Peter Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Prospecting can be an excellent way to find value on draft day and beyond, but every year a couple are hyped to the point that you need them to reach their full upside just to break even on your investment. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems to be that guy in 2019, as he is currently being taken in the top 40 of NFBC drafts despite never logging a single big league PA. The soon to be 20-year-old has undeniable talent, but 2019 might prove too soon for redraft leagues.

Peter Alonso may put up a similar fantasy season for a fraction of Vladito's cost. He's older (24) and blocked by the Mets' efforts to collect every second baseman over 30 years of age, but his minor league resume suggests that he will hit the ground running as soon as the opportunity presents itself.

Let's take a closer look at these young studs.

Be sure to check all of our preseason fantasy baseball rankings for Roto, Points, H2H, dynasty, best ball, prospects and more:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Peter Alonso (1B, NYM) ADP: 248.51

Alonso got a brief taste of Double-A ball in 2017, slashing .311/.340/.578 with two homers in 47 PAs for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies. The sample is too small to draw many conclusions from, but his plate discipline metrics (4.3% BB%, 14.9% K%) were encouraging in his first look at advanced pitching.

Alonso returned to Binghamton in 2018 and performed well, putting up a .314/.440/.573 triple slash line with 15 HR in just 273 PAs. His BABIP (.344) was on the high side considering his low LD% (18.8% LD%) and complete lack of foot speed (a 30 on the 20-80 scouting scale), but his average was at least partially supported by excellent plate discipline (15.8% BB%, 18.3% K%). He also did a good job of elevating the baseball (44.2% FB%) and doing something with all of his fly balls (20.5% HR/FB).

The performance earned Alonso a shot at Triple-A Las Vegas, where he regressed to a .260/.355/.585 line with 21 big flies in 301 PAs. A K% spike to 25.9% was the primary downward force on his average, though his 11% walk rate suggests that he wasn't overwhelmed. His BABIP also declined to .284, for which his 17.5% LD% is at least partially to blame.

Most importantly for fantasy owners, Alonso continued to flash excellent power in Las Vegas: His 40.4% FB% did a lot of damage with an HR/FB of 25.4%. That HR/FB might seem unsustainable, but Vegas inflates power (1.048 HR factor from 2014-2016) and scouts give Alonso's raw power an 80 grade. That's the highest the scouting scale goes! Binghamton suppresses power (0.939 HR factor), and Alonso still posted a 20% HR/FB there. An HR/FB of around 20 percent is a reasonable projection for Alonso's first MLB action.

Alonso is probably destined to return to Vegas at the start of the season, but none of the veteran Mets infielders have extensive experience at first base. Dominic Smith is still around, but he's also proven to be pretty bad. Alonso looks like the first guy the Mets call up when somebody else gets injured, something that shouldn't take too long considering we're talking about the Mets. A late-round draft pick has the potential to turn into 30 HR with reasonable batting average and (especially) OBP figures.

Verdict: Champ

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B, TOR) ADP: 38.59

Vladito was literally a teenager for the entire 2018 season, so the fact that his big-league debut seems imminent is already an accomplishment. He logged significant time with both Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Buffalo last year, so let's break down both performances.

Guerrero received 266 PAs for New Hampshire last year, slashing a ridiculous .402/.449/.671 with 14 HR and three steals. Before you get too excited about the running game, note that Vladito is not fast (40 on the 20-80 scale) and he was caught just as often as he was successful. Likewise, it's probably safe to take the under on his .402 BABIP when translating his numbers to the major leagues. Even considering these caveats, it was an amazing season.

His plate discipline metrics were off the charts (7.9% BB%, 10.2% K%), suggesting that he will not be overwhelmed by big league pitching. He also did a nice job of elevating the baseball (38% FB%) and making his fly balls count (17.7% HR/FB), though his home park may have helped in the latter regard (1.185 HR factor). The Blue Jays probably didn't want to promote their wunderkind to Triple-A, but Vladito left them with no choice.

He ended up recording 128 PAs for Buffalo, slashing .336/.414/.564 with six homers and zero steals. Predictably, his BABIP regressed to a more sustainable .323, explaining most of the batting average difference. His plate discipline remained outstanding (11.7% BB%, 7.8% K%), but his FB% fell considerably (24%). Some of the lost flies turned into line drives (29% LD% vs. 22.6% at Double-A), but he still lost a significant number of airborne batted balls (39.4% GB% at Double-A, 47% at Triple-A).

That is not a good trend when scouts give you an 80 raw power grade and your HR/FB is sitting at 25% at Triple-A. Worse, Vladito had the same problem at both A ball (29.2% FB% in 318 PAs) and High-A (30.3% FB% in 209 PAs) in 2017. He has all of the potential in the world, but he seems to still be a significant adjustment away from big league stardom.

There is every chance Vladito will work on his launch angle at Triple-A, as the Blue Jays are not close enough to the Yankees, Rays, or Red Sox to care about a few extra wins in 2019. Instead, they'll keep him in the minors as long as necessary to maintain his rights for an extra year. The Hall-of-Famer's son might be an intriguing late-round flier in fantasy, but taking him in the top 40 is absurd in redraft leagues.

Verdict: Chump

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zac Gallen5 hours ago

Gets Opening Day Nod
Nolan Schanuel6 hours ago

Injury Isn't Serious
Isaiah Stewart6 hours ago

Injured Against Boston
Duncan Robinson7 hours ago

Doesn't Return On Monday
Jackson Chourio7 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Anthony Davis7 hours ago

Cleared To Meet Atlanta
Blake Snell7 hours ago

Heading To The Giants
Onyeka Okongwu7 hours ago

To Return On Monday
Bryce McGowens8 hours ago

Unavailable For Tuesday
Tyus Jones9 hours ago

Won't Play On Tuesday
Deni Avdija9 hours ago

Unavailable For Tuesday
Nick Martinez9 hours ago

To Open The Year In The Rotation
OG Anunoby9 hours ago

Set For Multi-Game Absence
Kyle Kuzma9 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday
Luka Doncic9 hours ago

Considered Probable For Tuesday
Matt McLain9 hours ago

Scratched With Shoulder Soreness
Bilal Coulibaly9 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of Season
Kenley Jansen9 hours ago

Scheduled To Make Four More Spring Appearances
Jackson Chourio9 hours ago

"In The Mix" For Roster Spot
Rudy Gobert9 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Scoot Henderson9 hours ago

Returns To Starting Unit Without Restrictions
Matisse Thybulle9 hours ago

Available Again On Monday
Jerami Grant9 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Monday
Lauri Markkanen10 hours ago

Returns To Action On Monday
Alex Caruso10 hours ago

Ready To Roll Monday
Coby White10 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Kristaps Porzingis10 hours ago

Returns To Celtics Lineup
Jaylen Brown10 hours ago

Ready To Go On Monday
Jayson Tatum10 hours ago

Won't Play Against Detroit
Teuvo Teravainen10 hours ago

Misses Second Straight Game
Joshua Dobbs10 hours ago

49ers Reach Agreement With Joshua Dobbs
TOR10 hours ago

Mitch Marner To Miss At Least Two More Games
Jacob Markstrom10 hours ago

Could Return This Weekend
Rico Dowdle11 hours ago

Staying With Cowboys
Mikhail Sergachev11 hours ago

Skates On Monday
Dustin Wolf11 hours ago

Between The Pipes Monday
New Orleans Saints11 hours ago

Saints Expected To Sign Chase Young
Alexander Mattison11 hours ago

Signing With Raiders
DJ LeMahieu12 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Opening Day
Buffalo Bills12 hours ago

Taron Johnson Re-Signs With Bills On Three-Year Deal
José Urquidy12 hours ago

Jose Urquidy Has Forearm Strain, Will Begin On Injured List
Justin Verlander12 hours ago

Expected To Face Hitters "In The Next Day Or Two"
Corey Seager13 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice Monday
Aaron Judge13 hours ago

Likely To Play In Four Of Final Six Spring Games
Garrett Crochet13 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Nolan Schanuel13 hours ago

Scratched With Back Tightness
Dallas Cowboys13 hours ago

Leighton Vander Esch Calling It A Career
DJ LeMahieu14 hours ago

Still Pretty Sore
Aaron Judge14 hours ago

To Return On Wednesday
Jhoan Duran14 hours ago

To Begin Season On Injured List
Bryan Battle15 hours ago

Bout Ends in Controversy
Ange Loosa15 hours ago

Fight Ruled A No-Contest After Accidental Eye Poke
Ovince Saint Preux15 hours ago

Wins Split Decision In A Back-And-Forth Fight
Kennedy Nzechukwu15 hours ago

Suffers Split-Decision Loss To Ovince Saint Preux
Gerald Meerschaert15 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Shohei Ohtani15 hours ago

Cleared To Begin Throwing Program
Bryan Barberena16 hours ago

Submitted In The Second Round
Kyle Manzardo16 hours ago

Sent To Minor-League Camp
Jackson Merrill16 hours ago

Wins Center Field Job
Denny Hamlin17 hours ago

Emerges Victorious For Second Bristol Win In A Row
Alexander Mattison17 hours ago

Visiting With Raiders
Dak Prescott17 hours ago

Cowboys Restructure Dak Prescott's Contract
Dmitry Orlov18 hours ago

Collects Four Points In Big Win
Tyler Toffoli18 hours ago

Dominates Against Columbus With Three Points
Lucas Raymond18 hours ago

Pots Pair Of Goals Versus Penguins
Kaz Grala18 hours ago

Finishes 19th At Bristol Motor Speedway
Bo Horvat18 hours ago

Scores Twice In Losing Effort
Brad Keselowski18 hours ago

Exceeds Value In DFS At Bristol Motor Speedway
Pavel Buchnevich18 hours ago

Delivers Three Assists In Sunday's Win
Ryan Lindgren19 hours ago

Suffers Leg Injury Versus Islanders
Kyle Larson19 hours ago

After 5th at Bristol: "I Hope I Never Have To Run A Race Like That Again"
Chase Elliott19 hours ago

Earns First Top 10 Finish Of 2024
Justin Haley19 hours ago

Earns Best NextGen Short Track Finish for Rick Ware Racing
Ty Gibbs19 hours ago

Has Dominant Day at Bristol but Fades Late
John Hunter Nemechek24 hours ago

Found Speed At Bristol
Chris Buescher1 day ago

Secures Top 10 At Bristol
Alex Bowman1 day ago

Late Charge to Fourth Masks Early Race Struggles
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Ran Well, But His Teammates Were All Better
Martin Truex Jr1 day ago

. Matches Career-Best Finish At Bristol
Ryan Blaney1 day ago

Fades to 16th at Bristol After Handling Struggles
Russell Wilson2 days ago

Still Considered The Starter
William Byron2 days ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Bristol
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Starts 19th At Bristol After Damage In Practice
Justin Haley2 days ago

Scores A Starting Position Of 32nd For Bristol
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Should Compete For The Win At Bristol
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

History Indicates Brad Keselowski Being A Favorable Bristol Play
Joey Logano2 days ago

Should Be Rostered With Caution At Bristol
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Is Tyler Reddick Worth Rostering At Bristol This Week?
Martin Truex Jr2 days ago

. Could Work As A Tournament Play At Bristol
Alexander Nylander2 days ago

Totals Three Points In Saturday's Win
Sebastian Aho2 days ago

Leads Hurricanes To Victory In Toronto
Owen Tippett2 days ago

Delivers Three Assists In High-Scoring Loss
Steven Stamkos2 days ago

Extends Scoring Streak With Four-Point Performance
Nick Schmaltz2 days ago

Records Three Assists In Win Over New Jersey
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Racks Up Five Points In Saturday's Win
Brady Tkachuk2 days ago

Sinks Islanders With Third Hat Trick
Pannie Kianzad2 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Macy Chiasson2 days ago

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Isaac Dulgarian2 days ago

Suffers First Career Loss
Christian Rodriguez2 days ago

Overcomes Early Adversity At UFC Vegas 88
Tai Tuivasa2 days ago

Suffers Fourth Straight Loss
Marcin Tybura2 days ago

Gets First-Round Submission
Justin Fields2 days ago

Traded To The Steelers
NHL2 days ago

Lukas Reichel Will Be In The Lineup Sunday
Cale Makar2 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Saturday
Zach Parise2 days ago

Likely To Return Saturday
Michael Gallup3 days ago

Panthers Bringing In Michael Gallup For A Visit
Mike Williams3 days ago

Panthers To Host Mike Williams On A Visit
New York Jets3 days ago

Jets Expected To Sign Tyron Smith
AJ Dillon3 days ago

Officially Re-Signs With Packers
Van Jefferson3 days ago

Steelers Signing Van Jefferson
Jakobi Meyers3 days ago

Raiders Restructure Jakobi Meyers' Contract
Jimmy Garoppolo3 days ago

Rams Agree With Jimmy Garoppolo On One-Year Deal
Gerald Meerschaert4 days ago

To Fight In Main Event Of UFC Vegas 88
Bryan Barberena4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Kennedy Nzechukwu4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Ovince Saint Preux4 days ago

Set For 27th UFC Appearance
Bryan Battle4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Ange Loosa4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 88
San Francisco 49ers4 days ago

De'Vondre Campbell Heading To San Francisco
Dallas Cowboys4 days ago

Leighton Vander Esch Being Cut By Cowboys
Michael Gallup4 days ago

Cowboys Releasing Michael Gallup
Kenny Pickett4 days ago

Steelers Sending Kenny Pickett To Eagles
Pannie Kianzad5 days ago

Looking For Redemption At UFC Vegas 88
Macy Chiasson5 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Vegas 88
Isaac Dulgarian5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 88
Christiaan Bezuidenhout6 days ago

Looking To Put It All Together At TPC Sawgrass
Eric Cole6 days ago

Rebounding Well In The Sunshine State
Brian Harman6 days ago

Playing The Dark-Horse Role Again At The Players
Matt Fitzpatrick6 days ago

Searching For Answers Thus Far In 2024
Sahith Theegala6 days ago

One Of The Tour's Fastest Risers To Start The New Year
Sam Burns6 days ago

Brings A Stellar Run Of Form Into TPC Sawgrass
PGA6 days ago

Sungjae Im Trending Up After Arnold Palmer Success
Jason Day6 days ago

Facing Iron Hiccup Heading To The Players
Tom Hoge6 days ago

Brings Strong Form And History To Sawgrass
Min Woo Lee6 days ago

Ready For Second Trip To Sawgrass
Will Zalatoris6 days ago

Working Toward A Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF