X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Relief Pitchers and Closers - Overvalued and Undervalued

Now that the first day of Spring has passed, we are now entering the prime season for fantasy baseball drafts.

Before you enter your draft room this year, it would behoove you to check out our ADP analysis pieces here at RotoBaller. This will ensure you have a good working knowledge of how players are being viewed, when to grab your targeted guys, and when to let your league mates jump on a guy going too early. In the end, you will look like a genius.

I have been obsessed with relief pitchers my whole life, and always end up drafting more than I probably should. But with that being said, I have grown quite a knack for sniffing out value in the late innings. So let's take a look at what relievers are currently going too early and too late in 2017 fantasy drafts.

Be sure to check all of our preseason fantasy baseball rankings for Roto, Points, H2H, dynasty, best ball, prospects and more:

 

Overvalued Relief Pitchers

Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants          

2017 ADP: 78, RP4

This isn't a huge overvaluation on Melancon, because he certainly is a top five closer in baseball. He has been incredible over the past four years, posting ERA's of 1.64, 2.23, 1.90, and 1.39. But in fantasy, you are trying to win based on specific categories, and drafting the 58th ranked RP in strikeouts as the fourth best RP seems like a stretch. I am not against drafting Melancon at all, as I do love using a heavy RP approach to drag down my ERA and WHIP. But I am not passing up Seung Hwan Oh and Wade Davis (RP5 and RP6) who will also give me elite ERA/WHIP help while assisting my K totals moreso than Melancon. To me, Melancon is more of an RP7 after Oh, Davis, and a player to be named later.

 

David Robertson, Chicago White Sox          

2017 ADP: 134, RP17

Robertson had his worst season since 2010 last year. His ERA rose for the third straight season, finishing at 3.47. He experienced a huge increase in walks and a significant drop in strikeouts. It is popular belief that he will be traded this season, which seems like it would boost his value getting away from a rebuilding roster. But when you see that he owned a 4.73 ERA away from Cellular Field last year, and a 4.57 ERA away the previous season, it seems a bit scary. Then there is Nate Jones, who has been phenomenal the past two years and will be a threat to steal saves from Robertson all year. He is still a good source of strikeouts out of the RP position, but I would rather take all three of my undervalued options listed below instead of DRob in 2017.

 

Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies          

2017 ADP: 191, RP24

After his dominant performance returning from Tommy John surgery in 2016, Ottavino seems to be a popular sleeper pick heading into 2017. He boasted a 2.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and an 11.67 K/9 last season. With those type of numbers for a closer, he would certainly not be considered overvalued with his 16th round ADP. But the Colorado Rockies went out and signed Greg Holland this offseason, a reliever two years removed from two consecutive campaigns with at least 46 SV and a sub-1.50 ERA for the Kansas City Royals. Holland could be a nice flip at the trade deadline, but the Rockies could be in the thick of a playoff race. Holland should lead the Rockies in saves in 2017. A 10 SV RP at Coors Field doesn't entice me enough to pass up someone like Cam Bedrosian or Hector Neris, both of whom are in similar situations, but much closer to sea level.

 

Undervalued Relief Pitchers

Ken Giles, Houston Astros          

2017 ADP: 107, RP11

Ken Giles will be a top five closer in 2017. After the All-Star break he owned the highest K/9 and swinging strike rate in baseball. A spike in his HR/FB% saw his ERA rise to 4.11, but he had pitched to the tune of a 1.80 and 1.18 ERA in back to back seasons in Philly previously. He is not going to share saves with the likes of Will Harris and Luke Gregerson again, which means the Astros' 44 total saves from 2016 (12th most in the league) could be all his, to go along with over 100 K and an ERA that should drop back down in the 2.00's. Give me that over Mark Melancon all day, every day.

 

Francisco Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers          

2017 ADP: 144, RP19

In this range of RP, job security can play a huge role. Which is why I think it's crazy that A.J. Ramos and David Robertson, two guys who aren't even the best relievers on their own team, are being drafted ahead of KRod. Even at the age of 35, Rodriguez is still getting it done on the mound, and earned 44 SV with a 3.24 ERA in his first season as a Detroit Tiger. He has managed to pitch over 55 innings three straight years, and has no competition for the closing gig in Detroit. He can no longer miss bats like he used to in his prime, but at this point in the draft I will gladly take the decorated veteran pitching in a better situation.

 

Shawn Kelley, Washington Nationals          

2017 ADP: 195, RP25

Shawn Kelley is the Nationals' closer. Joe Blanton and Koda Glover are going to be Holds League sleepers, but I don't see either of the two taking the job away from Kelley. The Nats aren't going to have to sell out for a closer at the deadline either. By then, they will have realized they have a pretty darn good one already. For two consecutive years now, Kelley has owned a sub-3.00 ERA. Last season he cut down his walks, and increased his strikeouts to an impressive 12.41 K/9. Even with a bit of expected regression in the ERA due to a low BABIP and high LOB%, 75 K with a 3.00 ERA out of a closer for a World Series contender should be drafted way before his current ADP. I view Kelley as a RP15 for 2017, in Cody Allen and Alexander Colome territory.

*Since writing this article, Koda Glover has earned a lot of hype due to Dusty Baker repeatedly rolling him out in the ninth. Reportedly, he is testing the youngster to see if he is ready to take on the closer role this year. This obviously would make Kelley far less desirable. So, if any concrete news revolving this bullpen breaks before your fantasy draft, replace Kelley's name with Glover above. But until then, I continue to put my faith in the veteran.

 

Cam Bedrosian, Los Angeles Angels          

2017 ADP: 210, RP27

The son of a legendary closer that won a Cy-Young Award, Cam Bedrosian could very well have the Angels closer gig sealed up by the end of spring training. After his call up last year, he threw 40.1 innings in which he earned a 1.12 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, along with an 11.38 K/9. Huston Street is still owed salary, but no amount of money should keep a man in a closer role after suffering through a 6.45 ERA and 5.64 K/9 last season. Plus, Street is currently shut down for a lat strain. There is way too much upside here to be going this late. Don't let Bedrosian slide folks.

 

More Undervalued & Overvalued Picks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Al Horford7 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White7 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl8 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon9 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter9 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic9 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio9 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday9 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton9 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid9 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray10 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert10 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
LeBron James10 hours ago

Officially Active Against Memphis
Eduardo Rodriguez10 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Anthony Davis10 hours ago

Won't Play Against Grizzlies
Victor Wembanyama10 hours ago

Playing On Wednesday
Anthony Edwards10 hours ago

Will Play Against Detroit
Garrett Mitchell10 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Aaron Nesmith10 hours ago

Back For Pacers Wednesday
Alec Burks10 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Chad Green10 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Mitchell Robinson11 hours ago

Returns For Knicks Wednesday
Erik Swanson11 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman11 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Dejounte Murray11 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
John Konchar11 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Vince Williams11 hours ago

Jr. Misses Another Game On Wednesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo11 hours ago

Expected To Face The Pelicans
Gleyber Torres12 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard12 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson12 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer12 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia12 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen13 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers13 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers13 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers14 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar14 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark14 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers15 hours ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB15 hours ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels15 hours ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB15 hours ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby15 hours ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith15 hours ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds15 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti17 hours ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga17 hours ago

Throws Wednesday
Matt McLain17 hours ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Doug Ghim17 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA17 hours ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry17 hours ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox17 hours ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak17 hours ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan19 hours ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg19 hours ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn19 hours ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby19 hours ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin19 hours ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord19 hours ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala20 hours ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark20 hours ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler21 hours ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Colton Cowser21 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Sam Ryder21 hours ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen21 hours ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama21 hours ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin21 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Yariel Rodriguez1 day ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson1 day ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Diamondbacks Agree On One-Year Deal
Amon-Ra St. Brown1 day ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff1 day ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins1 day ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams1 day ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
Jon Gray1 day ago

Dealing With Stiff Neck
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
Justin Verlander2 days ago

Throws Successful Live BP Session
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Shea Theodore2 days ago

Maintains Good Scoring Form With An Assist
Brock Boeser2 days ago

Hits Goal No. 37
Cam Talbot2 days ago

Collects Fourth Consecutive Win
Anze Kopitar2 days ago

Records Fourth Straight Multi-Point Game
Oskar Sundqvist2 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury
Elias Lindholm2 days ago

Sits Out Monday
Jonathan Marchessault2 days ago

Bags Overtime Winner Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Jarrett Stidham2 days ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr3 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
Rose Namajunas6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Amanda Ribas6 days ago

Set For Main-Event Matchup
Edmen Shahbazyan6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
AJ Dobson6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla6 days ago

Seeking Victory In Third UFC Appearance
Luis Pajuelo6 days ago

Makes His UFC Debut
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More


Players to Avoid Drafting in 2024 Best Ball

In my first article of the offseason, I highlighted four players to target in 2024 Best Ball leagues. In this article, I'll turn my attention to players you should avoid drafting in Best Ball leagues this season. There are lots of reasons to avoid a player in Best Ball, whether it's a new role, a... Read More


2024 NFL Mock Draft Round 1 Predictions (Post-Free Agency Update) - Picks from All 32 Teams

We've now reached the point in the year where the disappointment of there not being any live football until the fall has subsided and hope has begun to renew for each fanbase heading into draft season. The first wave of NFL Free Agency has also passed and the rosters of all 32 teams have begun... Read More


Drake London - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 Top-200 Fantasy Football Rankings - Post Free Agency Edition

Fantasy football drafts are still five months away, but rankings and how fantasy managers value all of the players are constantly changing. With the better part of free agency in the rearview mirror and the best players on their new teams, we can re-evaluate our rankings to see which players have moved up and down.... Read More


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Deshaun Watson- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

The NFL offseason has been scorching hot. It's been fun to watch. While redraft fantasy football players have been able to put their feet up and relax, dynasty players know their work never stops. With major signings and big names on the move, the start of the offseason is one of the busiest times of... Read More


NFL DRAFT - Bold Predictions Round 2 2024

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 2

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire in this year's edition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the second round of the draft. Don't forget to check out... Read More


UFL SCHEDULE - Fantasy Football, 2024

2024 UFL Schedule (United Football League): Full 10-Game Schedule For Each Team

Check out the full 2024 UFL schedule for each team in the United Football League. The inaugural season of the UFL begins on March 30, and the first year of the XFL-USFL merger should be a fun one to keep tabs on. Each team will play ten regular season games before a four-team playoff consisting... Read More